SwingSeat

Looking back at the performance of TWS’s First Forecast Model

The data did a pretty good job in 2018.

Data-driven projections in all three categories.

A statistic that’ll be relevant for about five more days.

It's not really about Beautiful Ted and Beto. It's about the future.

The Senate races that could shock you on election night.

Marsha Blackburn might be the most important Republican on the Senate map.

Solving a paradox in the forecast.

The Republican win probability has doubled in Arizona.

Our model shows Republicans winning about 70 percent of model simulations.

Who are people searching for, and what issues do they care about?

A swing through the best/worst realistic scenarios for both parties.

Two very different Republicans try to win in the same state in a rough year.

He’s still the favorite, but it’s not risk-free.

Hosted by Charlie Sykes.

Here's how the model reacted to the latest wave of new polls.

We've made a few changes that increase the model's accuracy.

While we were all occupied with Manafort and Cohen, the pollsters were in the field .

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut and Vermont vote.

Both parties have had some good polls. Here's how you should digest the results.

Second verse, same as the first.

A recent poll and one from May indicate the beleaguered Democratic incumbent is unexpectedly weak.

SwingSeat: Republicans get good news in Tennessee but bad news in West Virginia and Montana.

SwingSeat update: Why new polling Arizona, Texas, and Nevada doesn't change the overall picture.

The model might be too high on Sinema. But it also might have a point.

Hosted by Charlie Sykes.

A user manual for our Senate prediction model.