Polls

Not perfect, but nonetheless impressive.

The data did a pretty good job in 2018.

What the model shows.

“I will tell the truth tomorrow.”

Andrew Egger reviews ‘Where Did You Get This Number?: A Pollster's Guide to Making Sense of the World’

We have data.

Tons of Data is Rolling in from The Upshot’s Polling Project

Perceptions from within have improved, but it's a big, big country.

New series of polls by Ipsos has no good news for Republicans.

What Americans think of Trump's Supreme Court Nominee

An all-encompassing poll of campaigns provides a different way to chart out key races.

Donald Trump is unpopular. If you’ve read any of the wonkier election or polling coverage in the last 18 or so months, that shouldn’t be a surprise. But what, exactly, do people like—and dislike—about Trump? Quinnipiac recently did some polling that sheds light on these two questions.

Data show that people tend to support nominees who espouse “Original Intent,” defined as judges who “look to the intent of the drafters and ratifiers of the Constitution to reach conclusions about its meaning.”

Data show that people tend to support nominees who espouse “Original Intent,” defined as judges who “look to the intent of the drafters and ratifiers of the Constitution to reach conclusions about its meaning.”

Hosted by Charlie Sykes.

Kasich is a more interesting as a third party candidate than he is as a primary challenger

Don’t stress about just one poll – fundamentals still favor Republicans in Texas

Millennial women are leaving the Republican Party in droves in recent years, with less than a quarter of younger women voters now identifying as Republicans.

When is Texas going to turn blue?

In less than a month, voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th District will head to the ballot box for one of the most interesting special elections of the year. Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone will be vying to fill the seat vacated by resigning Republican Rep. Tim Murphy. (The pro-life…

Today on the Daily Standard Podcast, senior writer Michael Warren talks about the long-awaited Infrastructure Week, and associate editor Ethan Epstein joins to discuss the Olympics, North Korea's 'Smile Diplomacy' and its coverage by the American press.

On Tuesday, Politico and Morning Consult published a poll showing Republicans ahead of Democrats by one point in the generic ballot. This is an improvement for the GOP—Morning Consult put Democrats ahead by four in its last two polls and had them up by 10 in December. The poll also shows Trump with…

Texas is the Democratic white whale. Every election cycle, some enterprising statewide (or national) Democratic candidate tries to flip the state by winning the governorship, a senate seat, or the state’s electoral college votes. And recently, they haven’t had much success. Texas has elected…

The basic math of the 2018 Senate elections shows a challenge for Democrats. In order to win control of the upper chamber, the party need to successfully defend all 26 of its seats up for election (some of which are in highly red states like Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, West Virginia, and…

In less than two months, the 2018 election will head straight into Trump-land: the southern suburbs of Pittsburgh. Last October, Republican Rep. Tim Murphy resigned (he was facing ethics issues regarding his treatment of employees and had encouraged his mistress to get an abortion—not a great look…

Donald Trump is historically unpopular. At the end of 2017, the three major polling aggregators—the Huffington Post Pollster, Real Clear Politics, and FiveThirtyEight—put his approval rating at 40.4, 40, and 37.9 percent respectively. According to FiveThirtyEight’s historical averages, this is the…

Donald Trump is historically unpopular. At the end of 2017, the three major polling aggregators—the HuffPost Pollster, Real Clear Politics, and FiveThirtyEight—put his approval rating at 40.4, 40, and 37.9 percent, respectively. According to FiveThirtyEight’s historical averages, this is the worst…

I have no idea whether President Trump enjoyed the holidays. But it looks like they may have helped his approval rating, at least temporarily.

The optimism of Democrats about the midterm election is based on the assumption that political conditions won’t change between now and November 6. Indeed, some of them won’t.

As far as elections go, 2017 wasn’t a good year for Republicans. Democrats won gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, frequently outperformed their baselines in special elections across the country and won a senate seat in Alabama—arguably the most GOP-friendly state in the country.

Winning isn’t everything, nor is it the only thing for Democrats in special elections this year. Political observers had built up Tuesday’s Alabama Senate vote as yet another put-up-or-shut-up moment for Washington’s minority party, suggesting that a loss by Doug Jones there would be another…

For the last five weeks, most of the political world has been (rightly) focused on the wild race for the Alabama Senate seat that l Jeff Sessions vacated earlier this year to become attorney general. But other key races didn’t stop while Democratic senator-elect Doug Jones was beating…

Last night, a Democratic candidate won a Senate seat in deep red Alabama.

The New York Times suggested there would be two lessons from a Roy Moore victory: “It would illustrate the enduring limitations of Democrats in the South and suggest that the tug of partisanship is a forbiddingly powerful force.”

Tonight, Alabamians will cast their ballots in what’s probably the most consequential election of the year for national politics. Republican Roy Moore and Democratic candidate Doug Jones are in a tight race for the Senate seat currently held by Luther Strange (who was appointed to replace Attorney…

Birmingham, Alabama

A Fox News poll released on Monday shows Democratic Senate candidate Doug Jones ahead of Republican Roy Moore by 10 points. That’s different from what other polls are showing—the RealClearPolitics average has Moore up by 2.5 points, with polls ranging from Fox’s 10-point lead for Jones to a 9-point…

The Republican National Committee reversed its decision to withdraw financial support from Roy Moore’s Senate campaign last week, in the wake of President Trump’s endorsement and Moore’s gains in the polls.

Minnesota Sen. Al Franken announced Thursday morning that he would resign from the Senate amid allegations that he forcibly kissed or groped several different women. Franken’s resignation would trigger a special election for the seat in the 2018 midterms and allow Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton to…

About three in ten Republicans want someone other than Donald Trump to be their party’s presidential nominee in 2020 according to the Public Religion Research Institute. It’s easy to see how that number could make some Trump supporters nervous and some anti-Trump Republicans hopeful. If a third of…

Next Tuesday, we’ll finally know whether Republican Roy Moore or Democrat Doug Jones will become the next Senator from Alabama.

On Aug. 19, 2012, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill received one of the biggest gifts of her political career. While discussing abortion in the case of rape, her Republican opponent Todd Akin said, “If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut the whole thing down.” Almost…

Alas, if recent polls are right, Roy Moore is likely to win his Senate race in Alabama. That means we’ll have to spend at least the next two years doing something that fills me with abject dread: hearing the name "Roy Moore."

The Alabama special Senate Election is a bit of a rollercoaster. Republican Roy Moore held a real lead over Democrat Doug Jones for most of the race—until the Washington Post and other outlets published credible allegations that Moore had inappropriate sexual contact with teenagers while he was in…

If you had told me last year that there was going to be a competitive Senate election in Alabama before 2017 was over, I would have probably smiled politely and slowly backed away. The idea of a close Senate race in the Yellowhammer state should be absurd. Trump won the state by 28 points,…

Are Republicans going to lose the House in 2018? And if they do, will it be President Trump’s fault?

The following is an archival version of our Election Night 2017 live blog. Posts are in reverse chronological order.

Election wonks don’t play favorites with polls. We love them all equally. (Translation: We do our best to judge them impartially based on their past accuracy, methodology, question wording, context and other relevant factors.) But it’s hard not to have a soft spot for surveys that offer something…

When Steve Bannon became CEO of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign on August 17, 2016, Trump was far behind Hillary Clinton, according to Bannon. “We were 16 points down,” he said.

When Steve Bannon became CEO of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign on August 17, 2016, Trump was far behind Hillary Clinton, according to Bannon. “We were 16 points down,” he said.

Last week, Monmouth University published a poll showing Republican Ed Gillespie ahead of Democrat Ralph Northam by one point in the race for Virginia’s governorship. This poll shocked some political observers—some had likely looked at Virginia’s recent results on the presidential level and…

After a months-long slide in the polls, President Trump has enjoyed a small bounce-back so far in September.

If you’re still wondering how Donald Trump, a man whose approval rating sits at 36 percent in a September 6 NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, ever became president, well, here’s a clue: That same poll has Hillary Clinton’s approval rating at 30 percent.

In this episode of THE WEEKLY STANDARD Confab, executive editor Fred Barnes tells host Eric Felten what to take away from the Democrats' special election defeats. Karlyn Bowman talks about what pollsters have and haven't learned from 2016's polling fiascos.

The headlines I saw said that only 29 percent of Americans approve of President Trump's decision to fire James Comey. That includes the headline written by NBC News about its own poll, which produced that result.

A new poll shows that less than a quarter of people surveyed support the GOP bill to partially repeal and replace Obamacare.

President Donald Trump passed the 100-day mark in office last week. While the West Wing staff tried furiously to spin his executive pronouncements as a demonstration that he has kept his campaign promises, he can so far boast of zero legislative accomplishments of note. Worse, no prospective…

President Donald Trump passed the 100-day mark in office last week. While the West Wing staff tried furiously to spin his executive pronouncements as a demonstration that he has kept his campaign promises, he can so far boast of zero legislative accomplishments of note. Worse, no prospective…

A Pew Research survey released on Thursday indicates that Americans of both parties want employers, not the government, to administer paid family and medical leave.

Singles Awareness Day is fast approaching, which will probably be news to those of you who are already dragging the old ball and chain. On February 14—though some authorities cite February 15—single people across the globe will pause to contemplate their sorry, pathetic lives or to celebrate their…

Yet again, a doggedly optimistic American public is hopeful that next year will be better the current one, which people have described over and over as "meh," "less than glowing," and something "they would rather forget," according to the Associated Press's reporting of its regular year-in-review…

More than two-thirds of registered voters do not want President Obama to pardon Hillary Clinton before he leaves office next month, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday evening.

New Jersey governor Chris Christie has reached an historical low for gubernatorial approval ratings taken by a renowned pollster, plunging below 20 percent for a mark not seen in more than 20 years of surveys.

Donald Trump has shocked the world and won the presidential election. But you shouldn't blame most of the polls for your surprise. Polling errors of about three percentage points are fairly common, as we've pointed out at THE WEEKLY STANDARD and as Nate Silver has explained at FiveThirtyEight.com.

Before there was Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Bill Mitchell's Yard Signs, there was Vigo County, Indiana. The half-urban, half-rural area about 80 miles southwest of Indianapolis has voted for the winner of the presidential race in 30 of the last 32 elections, and…

Since there will be an avalanche of post-election analysis on Wednesday, I thought it would be more helpful to give you some thoughts on what to look for tonight as the returns come in.

This presidential election cycle has defied conventional wisdom in so many ways that the list is about as long as Martin Luther's Ninety-Five Theses. Who would have thought a year ago we'd find ourselves here—with these specific candidates and many an "October surprise"—with less than 24 hours…

Just one week ago, the number-crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.com gave Democrats 68.9 percent odds the party will take control of the Senate as a result of Tuesday's elections. The betting odds then were not that far from the peak likelihood predicted by the website: 74.6 percent, on October 18. Yet,…

Yet another reason to hate early voting: It has eroded the journalistic exit-poll armistice, the agreement to embargo information about how Americans are voting until after the polls have closed. Without notice or discussion, mainstream news sources such as NBC and the New York Times have taken to…

With the news that Republican representative Todd Young had overtaken Evan Bayh in a new poll of the Indiana Senate race—an intuitive result, given the torrent of negative news against the Democrat—the GOP now has their noses in front in at least three and perhaps all five Senate contests…

A new poll of four swing states from Quinnipiac University shows Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump slipping in three likely must-win states.

The Washington Post calls attention to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey about how much Americans are prioritizing Obamacare relative to other health care issues this election season (emphasis mine):

Most Americans feel pessimistic about the state of their nation—74 percent, according to the annual Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) American Values Survey released Tuesday. And most (61 percent) feel neither party represents their views—compared to 48 percent who said the same in 1990.

Earlier this month, Republican senator Kelly Ayotte committed what was supposed to be a devastating gaffe when she said Donald Trump would "absolutely" be a role model for her children. But a new poll released Tuesday morning suggests the first-term New Hampshire senator is still very much alive…

Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump by double digits among likely voters, according to the latest ABC News poll released Sunday.

Wednesday night will probably be the last time Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are ever in a room together. (Unless Madam President accepts the invitation to Trump's next wedding.) But other than as a historical footnote, this debate doesn't really matter.

Donald Trump's unconventional candidacy has dragged together a ragtag band of boosters, a new celebrity subclass born out of online obscurity. Bill Mitchell, online radio upstart and Trump's unofficial Twitter mascot, is its king.

The latest CNN/ORC polls, released Monday, show bad news for Republican Senate candidates in the battleground states of Nevada and North Carolina, following strong numbers in thoes states for Democrat Hillary Clinton.

A new poll of likely voters in Utah finds the Republican nominee for president tied with the Democrat—a remarkable development in a state that has voted for every GOP nominee since 1964. In the new Deseret News poll, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied among voters in the Beehive State at 26…

College football's polls rank teams even before the season starts, speculating about how good teams will be before they ever play a down. But the Anderson & Hester College Football Computer Rankings (which I co-created) reward teams for what they've actually done this season, and only this season,…

In a rather unorthodox move, the Donald Trump campaign sent a press release Tuesday afternoon with an acknowledgement that Trump was unlikely to win the election.

Multiple polls conducted after the Friday release of the Donald Trump Access Hollywood video show Hillary Clinton extending her advantage in the presidential race, with one survey of a four-way field giving her an 11-point lead.

This election has made all the so-called political experts look like fools. Most of us thought that Trump would not enter the presidential race at all, that if he did he could not win the Republican nomination, and that if he nonetheless managed all that, he would still lose to Hillary Clinton in a…

A bit more than a month from Election Day, the electoral forecasts for Republicans differ between congressional campaigns and the one for the White House. The party's odds of retaining the Senate, once believed long, have improved substantially in recent weeks, as one-time toss-up races like…

The latest surveys of swing states in the election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton find the GOP candidate lagging in critical battlegrounds, with both nominees still sitting below 50 percent in expanded three- and four-candidate fields.

Quinnipiac University released several swing state polls on Monday that were, on balance, good news for Hillary Clinton. She had leads in Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania—which suggests a fairly comfortable Electoral College win. Yet Donald Trump was shown with a five-percentage point lead…

The conventional wisdom among Donald Trump's supporters is that his success doesn't rely much on political ads. The evidence suggests otherwise. As Trump's ad spending has risen, the race has tightened. As it has dipped, his polling deficit has widened.

This election has made all the so-called political experts look like fools. Most of us thought that Trump would not enter the presidential race at all, that if he did he could not win the Republican nomination, and that if he nonetheless managed all that, he would still lose to Hillary Clinton in a…

After the debate, Donald Trump and his campaign have claimed that the Republican nominee won— according to all the polls. One new press release from Trump's campaign says he "leads post-debate surveys." It's not true. CNN and YouGov gave the win to Hillary Clinton, while the Drudge Report poll,…

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are the two least liked presidential candidates since the advent of modern polling. But tellingly, there is one force in politics that voters hate even more—the news media.

A new slate of state polls shows Hillary Clinton's advantage holding in key swing states this week, though the Democrat's margins indicate a competitive race in some of the most vote-rich battlegrounds.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are virtually tied in the key swing state of North Carolina, according a new poll from Elon University.

Both major-party presidential nominees were at 42 percent support or below in all seven national polls that included Gary Johnson and Jill Stein this week.

A new Quinnipiac poll of likely voters finds Hillary Clinton up five percentage points in a one-on-one contest with Donald Trump, but her support dwindles significantly in a four-person race, particularly among young adults.

A poll storm of critical states in the presidential election reflected a tightening race the last week, but they also showed a large battleground that could indicate trouble for the nominees in places their party is accustomed to winning easily.

Two recent Quinnipiac University polls have some good news for Senate Republicans.

A poll of likely voters in North Carolina taken mostly after Labor Day finds Donald Trump with a three-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton, continuing a trend of surveys that reflect a tight race in the critical swing state.

In a new George Washington University Battleground Poll of registered voters released Wednesday, respondents reported feeling reluctant about the upcoming election.

During Tuesday's WEEKLY STANDARD podcast, I made a point that requires some amplification. The polls consistently show that the vast majority of voters—about 130 million in total—do not like either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, who were selected by just over 30 million people. There must be…

The WEEKLY STANDARD Podcast with staff writer Jay Cost on the recent polls, and why they're not as crazy as they sound.

Hillary Clinton is maintaining a six-point lead against Donald Trump, according to the latest NBC/Survey Monkey poll, which found Clinton with the same margin lead last week.

A spokeswoman for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump played down perceived inconsistencies in his immigration platform Tuesday morning, saying that immigration is not "a top priority" among the public and stressing his commitment to a policy that resembles "touchback" for undocumented…

It's been two weeks since I wrote in the Kristol Clear newsletter:

A majority of likely voters fault Bill and Hillary Clinton for failing to appropriately handle past donations to the Clinton Foundation, according to a new poll from Suffolk University and USA Today.

According to ABC News, Hillary Clinton has reached a new high in unpopularity. In their latest poll, 56 percent of Americans view Clinton unfavorably, up 6 percentage points in three weeks. Also notable is that Clinton is underwater with women, and her general unpopularity with other key…

A majority of registered Republican voters say that Donald Trump wasn't their party's best option for presidential nominee, a new poll from the Huffington Post and YouGov finds.

The refrain from Donald Trump backers of late is that the polls are systematically underrepresenting them, thus making it seem like the real estate mogul is behind Hillary Clinton when he is in fact ahead. What to make of this?

Are you enjoying the new Trump pivot? Like President Obama's pivot to the economy—coming soon to a theater near you since the spring of 2009—Donald Trump has been just about to pivot to the general election since the evening he wrapped up the nomination in Indiana. And yet, there's always a shiny…

A new poll of likely voters in Utah shows Republican Donald Trump with a 15-point lead over his next closest competitor, Democrat Hillary Clinton. But the GOP nominee has only a plurality of support in a field that includes third party and independent candidates, and he remains very unpopular in…

Monmouth University released a new poll Monday reminding Republicans that they might easily be winning the 2016 presidential race if they had nominated a natural-born citizen over the age of 35 who is not Donald Trump.

Donald Trump looks set to lose the presidential election to Hillary Clinton by a fair margin. But what about Congress?

A recent study from the Los Angeles Times and the American Enterprise Institute shows that even the poor have become leerier about Washington's efforts to lift them from hardship.

As George Costanza once said, it's not a lie if you believe it. He might have said the same of political spin. It's not clear whether Michael Cohen, an executive vice president with the Trump Organization and a surrogate for the Donald Trump campaign, believes his latest spin on the increasingly…

My friend Jay Cost (a fellow non-fan of the current Republican nomination system) outlines a scenario in which Donald Trump could lose to Hillary Clinton by an electoral-vote tally of 396 to 142. This is certainly possible, if the Trump campaign goes into a complete tailspin. But if Trump gets out…

The national polls paint a grim portrait for the Donald Trump campaign. The current Real Clear Politics average of the two-way polls shows Hillary Clinton with a commanding 6.8 percent lead. While there is still plenty of time left in the campaign, it is difficult to overcome such a large deficit…

Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump in the battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado, according to four NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released Friday.

This weekend's ABC News/Washington Post poll was very bad news for the Donald Trump campaign. Not only did it have Hillary Clinton with a comfortable, 50-42, lead over Trump in the head-to-head matchup, it provided more evidence that the Clinton campaign has done a better job corralling the core…

As the presidential election enters its final three months there are plenty of indications that one of the presidential tickets is doing everything it can to limit its ceiling with voters. Even before the Republican National Convention, the mathematical wisdom suggested that Donald Trump was going…

A spate of polls taken over the weekend show Hillary Clinton enjoying a healthy bounce coming out of the Democratic National Convention. This is to be expected. What is unusual is that the Democratic party is substantially more unified than the Republican party. Indeed, the GOP electorate looks to…

The latest Fox News poll, released Wednesday night, shows Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump 49 percent to 39 percent. An overwhelming majority say that Trump's response to the Muslim parents of a fallen U.S. soldier was "out of bounds."

Philadelphia

As of 5:00 P.M. EST on Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight's state-by-state, polls-only forecast for the November 8 general election showed a projected tally of 269 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 269 for Donald Trump. FiveThirtyEight projects Trump to win all 24 of the states that Mitt Romney won,…

Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton in one new poll and tied with her another. Both polls were taken after the Republican National Convention, giving Trump an overall lead of 0.2 percentage points over Clinton in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. This marks Trump's first RCP lead since…

Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by healthy margins in four important swing states the Republican would need to win the White House. In Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, Clinton polls ahead of Trump, each by more than five points. That's according to the new survey of…

Two new polls of important swing states finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump among registered voters.

Hillary Clinton has escaped indictment, but the FBI’s characterization of her as having been "extremely careless" in using multiple "personal servers" to send "Top Secret" emails—and as perhaps not having been "sophisticated enough" to understand classified markings while serving as U.S. secretary…

Here's a matter on which elites and the general public sharply differ: affirmative action in higher education. Recall that on June 23 in Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin II the Supreme Court upheld the school's use of race in admissions. Leaders at UT-A and competitive schools across the…

A rule of thumb for researchers: If you create a super-smart algorithm to determine, say, the best movie of 2015, and you come back with Mortdecai, that might be a sign that there's something wrong with your research methods—not that the American people inexplicably failed to appreciate the genius…

It turns out that "voting for the lesser of two evils" is a recent invention in presidential elections. We've seen dissenting liberals in wartime and disaffected conservatives amid stagflation, but there rarely has been overlapping dissatisfaction since the 1950s.

At a time of historical distrust in the nation's capital, it should come as a bit of comic relief to a faithless public that we can't even believe in Fourth of July fireworks anymore.

A new poll from NBC News suggests other high-profile Republicans would perform better in a general election against Democrat Hillary Clinton than would presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump.

More than half of likely Republican voters would like someone other than Donald Trump to be their party's presidential nominee. That's according to a new Fox News poll released Wednesday, which asked who those voters would prefer the win the GOP nomination. Just 48 percent said they would prefer…

If Hillary Clinton's campaign headquarters isn't in a state of panic right now, it should be.

A new poll of swing states finds Donald Trump running close to Hillary Clinton in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but also getting thumped in the crucial prize of Florida.

Nearly 6 in 10 Americans dislike or hate party frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, according to an NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll released Tuesday.

Why are pro-regulation liberals opposed to government intervention when it comes to ride-hailing darlings Uber and Lyft?

A soon to be released NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that a high number of voters are volunteering, "unprompted," that they would not vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, NBC's Chuck Todd said Friday.

Hillary Clinton now suffers from a higher unfavorable rating than Donald Trump.

Ann Coulter recently stated that Ronald Reagan was the last presidential candidate as unpopular as Donald Trump. She claimed to cite a Los Angeles Times poll from March 1980, close to the same period in which the current presidential campaign finds itself. And irrespective of the numbers, Trump…

By late April 2000, Vice President Al Gore was thumping his liberal challenger Bill Bradley with 70 or 80 percent of the vote in most primary states. That same time four years later, the tent hosting Howard Dean's populist revival had been folded for two months.

The rise of Donald Trump and the general "polarization" of politics have pushed six Senate seats toward the Democrats, according to Larry Sabato and his "Crystal Ball" forecast.

The Democratic party has had its own reckoning this year. The electoral street fight between Donald Trump and conservatives has obscured the fact that young Democrats are choosing a 74-year-old democratic socialist with few elected allies to represent their party's future. It's a development that…

You'd think that Republican voters would want to crumple the primary system into wastepaper and chuck it atop a radioactive dump. On the one hand, Donald Trump has criticized the process ("unfair"), the rules ("unfair") and the size of the field ("unfair"), and his supporters have consistently…

For a candidate who has popularity issues of her own, it's perhaps a bit of surprise that #NeverHillary has not sprung up beside #NeverTrump.

In this political season, the results of polling have proven as problematic as they have consequential. Questions of validity increasingly plague polls at the very moment that the body politic most bends to their will (or to that of the media outlets reporting on them).

A new national poll from Quinnipiac asked registered voters to list a word that "best describes" how they feel about either of the presidential front-runners as commander in chief. The responses were uninspiring, particularly for the Republican favorite.

Bernie Sanders outperformed the wildly wrong polls in Michigan in a ludicrous upset of Hillary Clinton in Michigan's Democratic primary.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has found that Donald Trump now trails each of his three remaining Republican rivals in a head-to-head matchup.

Donald Trump fares terribly in poll questions that don't relate to raw support. His favorability ratings are consistently underwater, even when surveying only Republicans. Until recently, he hasn't done well in one-on-one matchups with other candidates, Democrat or GOP.

Ben Carson and John Kasich will finish far from the top on Super Tuesday. But their presence in the campaign could do more than merely limit votes for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

There's an old truism in sports that says if you allow an underdog to hang around long enough, he just might win. Such has been the case with Donald Trump.

Rarely has the United States been so neatly split as it is now. One party holds complete control of Congress while the other holds the presidency--a scenario that has happened only a quarter of the time since 1855.

In the New Hampshire primary, Donald Trump benefitted from a cluster of his rivals competing for second place. Polling showed that no one among Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush was poised to surge on election day and come within shouting distance of the frontrunner. As a result,…

The latest Nevada poll finds that Donald Trump is dominating the early state with 45 percent. Jeb Bush, on the other hand, is at a mere 1 percent in the poll.

Donald Trump has owned the polls, scientific or otherwise: polls about debate performance, polls measuring support in primary states, even "entrance" polls of Iowa caucus goers before they cast a vote Monday night. But Trump fell short in the nation's first primary state, with Texas senator Ted…

It seems that voters have been disenchanted ever since they had the opportunity to elect Barack Obama president. In 2008, the country was war-weary, terrified of its financial state, and eager to change its polarizing politics. In 2010, it was worried about its solvency, agitated by a law of…

Des Moines

Research from the polling firm Gallup has found that Donald Trump is the "most unpopular candidate" for president in either major party — both in this election and all the way back to 1992.

Hillary Clinton may have a Millennial problem on her hands. A survey from USA Today and Rock the Vote released last week found her main Democratic opponent, Vermont independent senator Bernie Sanders, is winning Democratic primary voters between the ages of 18 and 34 by more than 10 points, 46…

A new poll this morning released by CNN finds that Jeb Bush is at 3 percent of the vote. Donald Trump, by contrast, leads the field with 39 percent.

Some shocking results from the latest New York Times poll:

The WEEKLY STANDARD Podcast with staff writer Jay Cost on Trump and the polls.

The New Hampshire Union Leader has endorsed Chris Christie for president. The state's largest daily newspaper, which has a conservative-leaning editorial board, published the endorsement Saturday. Here's an excerpt:

THE WEEKLY STANDARD podcast with staff writer Jay Cost reading the tea leaves on Hillary Clinton's latest poll numbers.

The leading Republican presidential candidate in donor and establishment support is down to just four percent of the vote in a new national poll. Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, is in a far fifth place in the latest Quinnipiac poll, getting four percent and trailing Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio,…

A new national poll of Republican primary voters finds retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson in the lead, overtaking reality TV star and New York businessman Donald Trump. The CBS News/New York Times poll found 26 percent of Republican primary voters polled support Carson, while 22 percent support Trump.…

A new poll finds that Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson is beating Donald Trump in Iowa. The poll has been released by Quinnipiac University.

The latest Pew poll shows that Jeb Bush has fallen to 4 percent in the Republican field. Donald Trump leads the field with 25 percent; Ben Carson is at 16 percent.

Some new findings on how conservative voters think about energy issues from a bevvy of top-tier GOP pollsters ought to be required reading for the eventual Republican presidential nominee. While the new polls, commissioned by the ClearPath Foundation, offer some intuitive political messaging advice…

We're two weeks from the first Democratic debate and to be honest with you, I can't tell right now if we are underestimating Hillary Clinton's weakness, or her strength.

Vice President Joe Biden has made significant gains in the national Democratic primary polls in recent weeks, with a new Bloomberg poll showing a quarter of registered Democratic primary voters supportin him, his best numbers yet.

A new poll of the Republican presidential primary from the New York Times and CBS News shows consensus frontrunner Donald Trump making "modest" gains, from 24 percent at the beginning of August to 27 percent. But his closest rival for the nominatjon, Ben Carson, has seen a bigger jump in that time,…

New polls of likely Republican voters in two early primary states show Donald Trump maintaining a solid lead for the presidential nomination. The CBS News/YouGov tracking polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire show the real-estate magnate and reality TV star with big leads in those states.

More Iowa Democrats say they support Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton in a new Quinnipiac poll of likely caucusgoers. According to the poll, 41 percent say they support Sanders, the Vermont senator, with 40 percent supporting Clinton, the former secretary of state and New York senator. In…

A new Pew poll finds shrinking support among the American people for the nuclear deal with Iran. The poll found 49 percent are opposed to the deal, with 21 percent in support and 30 percent who say they don't know.

A new national poll of Democrats and Democrat leaners finds Hillary Clinton with 42 percent support in her party's presidential primary, down 10 points from a month ago and facing significant opposition from other candidates. The Monmouth University poll found Clinton, the former secretary of…

With the summer of Trump coming to a close, the fall might belong to Dr. Ben Carson. Earlier this year, we labeled Carson "the 2016 campaign’s most interesting long shot" -- but that long-shot is seeing a rise in the polls in Iowa, and nationally.

The results of the latest straw poll of WEEKLY STANDARD readers are in. It's not a scientific poll, of course—but since the respondents are very perceptive WEEKLY STANDARD readers, I'm going to claim (why not?) that the results are a suggestive leading indicator of where the GOP race may be going.

The Scrapbook is revising its opinion of “word clouds,” which we have heretofore mocked. That’s because we were so entertained by the ones produced in Quinnipiac University’s latest national poll. Besides the usual questions about preferences for the 2016 candidates, voting intentions, and so…

The Washington Post has a poll out this today that finds Hillary Clinton's numbers are down in the wake of her email scandal. The poll undercuts one of the main arguments for her candidacy -- electing the first woman president would excite female voters. While Hillary Clinton has a negative…

More than 200 elected officials, Republican and conservative activists, and business leaders have signed a letter to CNN president Jeff Zucker requesting the cable network award Carly Fiorina a spot in the upcoming Republican presidential primary debate. Fiorina campaign staff posted the letter on…

A new poll of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa finds Donald Trump and Ben Carson tied for the lead at 23 percent support. The Monmouth University poll is the first since July to show Trump not in the sole lead position in Iowa.

A new poll of "usual" Republican primary voters in New Hampshire gives Donald Trump his biggest lead yet in the Granite State. The Public Policy Polling survey found Trump with 35 percent support, a good 26-point advantage over the next closest GOP candidate, Ohio governor John Kasich at 11…

Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton in a new poll of "usual" New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. According to Public Policy polling, a Democratic firm, Sanders has 42 percent support to Clinton's 35 percent support.

What’s the matter with Jeb Bush? The establishment favorite and frontrunner in the fundraising primary can’t seem to catch a break. Bush’s performance in the August 6 debate in Cleveland was judged as mediocre at best. He’s dropped to number two in New Hampshire and is tied for sixth place in Iowa.…

A growing majority of Americans say Congress should reject the nuclear deal with Iran brokered by the Obama administration, according to a new CNN poll. Here's more from CNN:

Wisconsin governor Scott Walker is nothing if not a campaign veteran. He’s run and won three statewide races since 2010, including the highly contentious recall election in 2012. In fact, since an unsuccessful bid for the state assembly in 1990 when he was just 22, Walker hasn’t lost an election.…

Vermont senator Bernie Sanders has doubled his support in the Democratic presidential primary since June while frontrunner Hillary Clinton has seen her support among primary voters nationally drop by more than 20 points in that same time. That's according to a new poll from Fox News that shows…

Donald Trump is down nine points among Republican primary voters nationally, according to a post-debate poll from Rasmussen Reports. The real estate magnate and reality TV star still leads the crowded primary field, but with 17 percent support Trump is down nine points from Rasmussen's pre-debate…

A new poll of New Hampshire GOP primary voters conducted after the first presidential debate shows Donald Trump stumbling, and John Kasich and Carly Fiorina getting significant bumps in support. The poll from Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald finds Trump with 18 percent, which is…

Hillary Clinton still leads the Democratic field in Iowa, but according to a new Public Policy Polling survey of "usual Democratic voters" in the Hawkeye state independent Vermont senator Bernie Sanders is making gains there.

Carly Fiorina explained on Fox News Sunday this morning that the presidential "race has just gotten started." And she is ready to go:

A new OpinionSavvy/InsiderAdvantage poll shows Donald Trump doing better in the South than he is nationally. In Georgia, The Donald’s 30 percent is nearly double his closest competitor, Jeb Bush (17 percent), Ben Carson’s at 10 percent, and the rest of the field is single digits—or zero, as in the…

In his speech today at American University on the Iran nuclear arms deal, President Obama asked for critics to evaluate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on its own merits. “Unfortunately,” said Obama, “we're living through a time in American politics where every foreign policy decision is…

A new poll finds that Vermont socialist Bernie Sanders is in a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton in a newly released New Hampshire poll. The poll finds that Sanders "is currently the most popular Democratic candidate in the state."

In a new national poll, Quinnipiac asked the question in as straightforward a way as possible: "Do you support or oppose the nuclear deal with Iran?" And, "Do you think the nuclear deal with Iran would make the world safer or less safe?"

Barack Obama is not popular. This plain and simple fact may surprise those who read only legacy journalists, who often elide this inconvenient truth. A recent Associated Press write-up is illustrative:

A new national Quinnipiac University poll finds Donald Trump leading the crowded Republican presidential primary field with 20 percent support, even as 30 percent of registered Republican voters say there is "no way" they would support him for president. The New York reality TV star and real-estate…

Secure America Now, a group opposed to President Obama's nuclear deal with Iran, released a new poll this morning.

Hillary Clinton was asked about new poll numbers that show the American people don't trust her. "Well, I don't like to read that, it won't surprise you to hear me say it," Clinton said with a big grin on her face.