Polling

The data did a pretty good job in 2018.

With the November midterms fast approaching, Missouri’s Democratic senator Claire McCaskill is doing her best to stave off a late surge from her Republican challenger, state attorney general Josh Hawley. But with under ten days to go until Decision Day, the latest polling shows that Hawley may have…

Andrew Egger reviews ‘Where Did You Get This Number?: A Pollster's Guide to Making Sense of the World’

Hosted by Charlie Sykes.

We have data.

Tons of Data is Rolling in from The Upshot’s Polling Project

New series of polls by Ipsos has no good news for Republicans.

What Americans think of Trump's Supreme Court Nominee

It's a real possibility, and it's worth gaming out

New poll shows the Republican challenger is gaining ground.

An all-encompassing poll of campaigns provides a different way to chart out key races.

Did Trump’s coddling of Putin damage his approval rating?

The Special Election in Ohio's 12th District Has Flown Under the Radar

The early numbers make sense based on what we know about partisanship and history.

Donald Trump is unpopular. If you’ve read any of the wonkier election or polling coverage in the last 18 or so months, that shouldn’t be a surprise. But what, exactly, do people like—and dislike—about Trump? Quinnipiac recently did some polling that sheds light on these two questions.

Maybe the bump in the generic ballot was just noise.

Hosted by Charlie Sykes.

It turns out projecting 435 House Races using one polling number is tough

Don’t stress about just one poll – fundamentals still favor Republicans in Texas

On Tuesday, Mississippi Democratic Senate candidate Mike Espy's campaign released an internal poll showing him in the lead in Mississippi's upcoming Senate election. The headline might sound like good news for Democrats—every candidate obviously prefers to be ahead, and Mississippi is extremely…

Everyone knows that President Trump is historically unpopular and his low approval rating is putting Republicans in real danger of losing at least the House in 2018. At this point, that's old news.

We are coming down to the wire in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, where Republican Rick Saccone will face Democrat Conor Lamb in a special election, for a term of just seven months. Here are four questions (and answers) to clarify what’s at stake, how close the contest is, and what it means for 2018…

Donald Trump is historically unpopular, and Republicans are underperforming his margins in special elections across the country. Some might be tempted to look at these numbers and conclude that Trumps’ re-election effort (which is already underway) is doomed.

Most Americans have probably heard the parable of the blind men and the elephant. There are different versions of the story, but the basic idea is that a group of blind men encounter an elephant, and they each touch different parts of it. One man feels the tail, another the leg, another the ear,…

According to the RealClearPolitics average, 42.2 percent of poll respondents approve of Trump’s job performance. FiveThirtyEight has Trump’s approval rating at 42.5 percent among voters and HuffPost Pollster has him at 41.6 percent. And in all three of these aggregators, the basic story is the…

For much of December and early January, Democrats held a double digit lead in the RealClearPolitics average for the generic ballot–a poll that basically asks a national sample of voters which party they intend to vote for in the upcoming congressional elections. Today, that advantage is down to…

Donald Trump is historically unpopular. At the end of 2017, the three major polling aggregators—the Huffington Post Pollster, Real Clear Politics, and FiveThirtyEight—put his approval rating at 40.4, 40, and 37.9 percent respectively. According to FiveThirtyEight’s historical averages, this is the…

A new poll shows that President Trump's controversial executive order on immigration is not unpopular:

The Huffington Post polling database shows that Donald Trump has shaken his longstanding unfavorable ratings following his election victory.

"It was around 9:20 p.m. when conventional wisdom died," wrote the Wall Street Journal's Neil King on election night. That was the moment when the New York Times's website began projecting that a Donald Trump victory was more likely than not, and it became abundantly obvious that the presidential…

"It was around 9:20 p.m. when conventional wisdom died,” wrote the Wall Street Journal's Neil King on election night. That was the moment when the New York Times's website began projecting that a Donald Trump victory was more likely than not, and it became abundantly obvious that the presidential…

The WEEKLY STANDARD Podcast with senior writer John McCormack on the potential path to victory for Donald Trump.

Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump by double digits among likely voters, according to the latest ABC News poll released Sunday.

Days after House speaker Paul Ryan said he would begin focusing solely on preserving the GOP's House majority, a new poll of congressional races may get Republicans feeling and seeing blue.

Four polls conducted prior to the first presidential debate suggested that the race in potentially decisive Colorado had become a dead heat: Trump narrowly led in two polls, while Clinton narrowly led in the other two. But the first poll of Colorado conducted since the first debate finds that…

As doubts have grown over the accuracy of polling, many have argued that there's a better gauge for predicting electoral outcomes: betting markets. The idea is that the wisdom of crowds—especially when those crowds are putting their money where their mouths are—trumps surveys that are hobbled by…

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton tied at 47 percent in a head-to-head race in Colorado. When Libertarian and Green Party candidates are added into the mix, Trump is down just 2 points (44 percent to 42 percent). That's a big swing from Quinnipiac's last poll of Colorado…

A new Bloomberg poll shows Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 5 points in Ohio:

Hillary Clinton is maintaining a six-point lead against Donald Trump, according to the latest NBC/Survey Monkey poll, which found Clinton with the same margin lead last week.

Donald Trump used to love the polls, until the polls weren't useful anymore. Now he's is taking matters into his own hands by conducting a poll of his own. Trump's campaign emailed his supporters earlier Monday, saying that he is now facing two opponents: Hillary Clinton and the media.

Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump in the battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado, according to four NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released Friday.

Pennsylvania has long been viewed by election analysts as a potentially decisive state in the 2016 presidential contest, but new polls out of the Keystone state show a race that isn't even close.

Over at 538, Harry Enten has done some number crunching on Democratic unity following Hillary Clinton's bruising primary with Bernie Sanders and, well, it looks like she still got her work cut out for her. A recent CNN poll that was heavily touted showed Clinton nailing down the support of 91…

So there's a bounce.

So dominant is Hillary Clinton's polling in the presidential primaries, notes the press critic Howard Kurtz, that the media have essentially stopped paying attention to the Democratic race at all. The logic, for a media organization, is simple: Why lavish limited resources on a fait accompli? The…