“Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows,” wrote Shakespeare. Although the odds that President Trump was reminded of that observation when re-reading The Tempest must be regarded as low, they are somewhat higher that he might at one time have stumbled across the modern variant, about…
The bad news is that share prices have been plummeting, wiping billions in value off the holdings of investors and pension funds. The good news is that share prices are plummeting by thousands of points on the Dow, taking froth off markets and restoring monetary policy to its proper place in our…
I was flying cross-country Tuesday night and didn’t see Donald Trump’s State of the Union Address. The instant reviews were predictably mixed. Trump supporters, even reluctant ones, seemed to like it. His critics hated it.
The New Normal. Slow growth. Persistently low inflation threatening to morph into Japanese-style deflation. Stagnant wages. Rising inequality. The American Dream converted to a nightmare. All the result of the metastasizing of the regulatory and entitlement states, say the Republicans. No, it’s the…
“Mournful, dazed, sullen, traumatized, self-absorbed, defensive, remote, morbid, bleak, bummed-out, alienated, unprotected, besieged.” That’s how a leading pop music critic describes the music of choice of “millennial and younger listeners . . . making their way into an era of accelerating income…
“Janet, thanks for dropping by the Oval Office. It’s a dump but I’m packing to leave for China to see my new best friend Xi Jinping, so I couldn’t get away to my New Jersey country club. He really likes me. I tricked him into letting us sell some beef in China while he is distracted by building…
President Donald Trump on Thursday officially nominated Jerome Powell to replace Janet Yellen as chair of the Federal Reserve.
President Donald Trump is planning to nominate Jerome Powell to replace Janet Yellen as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, the New York Times reported Monday.
Recent reports suggest that the contest for the next chair of the Federal Reserve is down to Jay Powell, a current member of the Federal Reserve board, and Kevin Warsh, a member of the board from 2006 to 2011. And the rumor mill suggests that it is Warsh—a former Wall Street denizen whose…
If you think monetary policy is getting boring, think again. True, Fed chair Janet Yellen had no surprises for us earlier this week. To contain the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed printed more than one trillion new dollars to finance its purchase of the assets that it now plans to sell. That took…
And then there were four. Vacancies on the Federal Reserve Bank’s seven-person board of governors, that is, now that vice-chair Stanley Fischer has tendered his resignation for “personal reasons”—widely believed to be his wife’s health.
Central Bank, est. 1913, seeks new Chair, to assume duties Feb. 5, 2018: Applicants will be considered even if they have graduate training in economics, although a doctorate might prove a deterrent to selection. Patience to sit through long staff meetings discussing arcane forecasting issues…
So it’s come to this. The monetary policy gurus at the Federal Reserve have decided to reduce the size of the bank’s swollen $4 trillion balance sheet in a gradual process—initially $10 billion per month, rising steadily thereafter.
It was a bad week for the president of the United States and might prove to have been a career-ending week for the chair of the Federal Reserve Board. Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III is investigating whether Trump obstructed justice in connection with the FBI probe into Russian activities…
The Federal Reserve raised a key interest rate for only the second time since 2008 Wednesday, and left its economic projections mostly unchanged despite granting the uncertainty of how Donald Trump's economic policies could alter the economy and its future decision-making.
The American economy continues to grow, albeit slowly, and the jobs markets has been generating enough jobs to keep us at or close to full employment without triggering inflation. The economy added 156,000 jobs last month, not seriously out of line with the 75,000-125,000 jobs that observers such…
They should have known better, those central bankers and policy-watchers who thought that Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday would mark a volte-face. Yellen, who skipped last year's meeting, came to Jackson Hole under pressure from important colleagues to commit to raising…
Janet Yellen has given her speech and her words, as parsed by CNN/Money, indicate that, "a rate hike this year is still on the table."
So we will not add to the world's Brexit woes by having a recession here in America. At least not soon. The U.S. economy added 287,000 jobs in June, compared with a meager 11,000 in May (revised down yesterday from 38,000). Since we are deep into the political season, cheers from the Obama-Clinton…
"I must do it. But I fear to do it. Upon my soul I do." So said Alec Guinness' King Faisal to Peter O'Toole's Lawrence in Lawrence of Arabia when faced with demands that he place his Bedouin fighters under British command. And so in effect said Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen to the…
Those of us who follow economic news as well as politics were treated to a view of two sides of this country. Turn on a news channel and there is Donald Trump, burly, blonde, braggadocious, belligerent, rude to hostile questioners, promising things he cannot deliver, but doing so in clear, easily…
Guilty as charged. That's my response to anyone who accuses me of having spilled too much ink writing about what Janet Yellen might do, has done, and will do now that she has raised the Fed funds rate for the first time in a decade. By way of expiation, here is a look at some less-heralded…
If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done slowly. That is official Federal Reserve Board going-forward policy. The announcement of the Fed's first interest rate increase in almost a decade, an upward move of 0.25 percent from near zero, says, and twice, that future increases…
"I'll build a stairway to Paradise," promised songwriter George Gershwin decades ago. Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen is about to try to do the same, taking interest rates up that stairway, from the zero level set during the hellish days of the financial crisis to the Paradise of normality or…
The last non-farms payroll report pretty much sealed the deal in the minds of Fed watchers everywhere. We had, at last, achieved the desired degree of inflation. Rates would be going up. Probably in December.
One of the big problems with media "fact checkers" is the presumption of expertise that the reporter doesn't actually have. Sitting around googling whenever a politician opens his or her mouth often means a rush to judgment, and the results can be embarassing. Last night, Politico Pro sent out the…
Ralph Nader, man-splainer?
Coming soon to a central bank near you, in time for the Christmas shopping season, an increase in interest rates, courtesy of Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board’s monetary policy committee. Or perhaps not. Folks living in euroland can expect the gift that keeps on giving,…
The U.S. economy is chugging along. Not at high speed, but at a steady 2.25 percent annual rate, with retailers stocking up in anticipation of a very merry holiday season. The unemployment rate is down to 5.1 percent, according to the Federal Reserve Board headed lower to its “long-run normal”…
There are two explanations, one political, one economic, for the Fed's decision to leave interest rates alone. The first of course, is that Fed chair Janet Yellen is a political animal, and the forces on her side have been agitating loudly to leave rates alone. History has shown that the Fed finds…
Prices matter. They are the economists’ canary in the coal mine, an indicator of what is to come. Not necessarily as grim an indicator as when we have here a dead canary, but a pointer that cannot be ignored. When oil prices plummeted, analysts paid attention, hunting for causes and effects. Wages…
Last week’s surprising report that the value of all the goods and services produced in America did not grow in the first quarter, which will be subject to two revisions as firmer data come in, tells us one of two things. Either the American economy has stopped growing, or the GDP figures, which…
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has devoted time of late to discussing the significant problem of inequality. At a conference on April 2nd, Ms. Yellen urged that research be undertaken “to understand whether any policies may hold people back or discourage upward mobility.” Perhaps such research…
The strong dollar, warns Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock in a letter to be released to shareholders next week, “will lead to an erosion of confidence on the part of CEOs, with the potential to slow both investment decisions and future growth in the U.S.” When you manage almost $5 trillion in assets,…
“Fed Puts Interest-Rate Hikes in Play,” led the Wall Street Journal’s page one, following Federal Reserve Board chair Janet Yellen’s latest press conference. “Don’t bet on June for Federal Reserve hike,” countered page one of the business section of USA Today. To which I would add a headline for…
Sometimes -- not often, but sometimes -- anecdote is more revealing than data. Especially when the data are subject to major revisions, which is the case with most monthly economic data. This is one of those times. Last week’s jobs report -- 295,00 new nonfarm jobs in February -- was a bit more…
The Obama administration’s line on the economy appears to be that it has finally turned the corner and things are truly humming. And maybe so. But there are signs of trouble amid all the good cheer.
Markets work. That’s the message from Walmart’s decision to raise its starting wage for 500,000 of its 1.3 million US employees to $10 per hour starting next year. That’s 37% above the statutory minimum of $7.25. No, the notably cost-conscious company, the largest private-sector employer in…
A few weeks ago I suggested that we now know when Federal Reserve Board chair Janet Yellen will raise interest rates: never. Her first formal monetary policy speech can be read to support that view, or at least that “normal” interest rates are what the Economist describes as “a distant prospect.”…
We now know the approximate date when Federal Reserve Board chair Janet Yellen will feel comfortable ending the Fed’s near-zero interest rate policy: never. Those who were led to believe by her first press conference that she has shed her dove’s feathers for those of an inflation hawk, circling…
Janet Yellen made her first appearance before Congress since assuming the chair of the Federal Reserve Board and produced the yawns she was seeking, even thanking several of her interlocutors for calling her “unexciting.” Knowing that some Fed critics are seeking to rein in the bank’s independence…
When economic forecasts prove wrong, it is customary to blame the weather. So cold that consumers stayed home, or so hot that consumers, well, stayed home. So cold that outdoor construction was unexpectedly low, unless of course unusually high temperatures made such work impossible lest heat stroke…
It's been more than a week now and I’m beginning to suspect she’s not going to call, so here I will offer Janet Yellen the advice I’ve been hoping to give her privately since the Senate confirmed her as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. My advice is: Think about John Cowperthwaite. By this I…
Our economy is increasingly policy-driven, at least in the near- and medium-terms. What Congress and the president do or don’t do, what incoming Federal Reserve Board chairman Janet Yellen does or doesn’t do, will be important determinants of our growth, inflation, and job creation rates. So here…
The nomination of Janet Yellen to chair the Federal Reserve has come down to this: a referendum on quantitative easing and zero interest rates. The money-printing program that Ben Bernanke started five years ago this month remains Yellen’s answer for how the economy will get back on solid ground.…
“The thrill is gone,” famously warbled B.B. King among others. And so it is for watchers of the U.S. economic scene. The eighteenth partial government shutdown is over, World War II veterans can legally visit the monument to their bravery, hikers can trek through national parks, and the National…
Janet Yellen, dubbed “Ms. QE Infinity” by some wags because of her support for printing money to create jobs, and her willingness to pierce the Fed’s long-held 2 percent annual inflation ceiling, will have more to worry about than monetary policy when she steps into Ben Bernanke’s ample shoes on…
If not Janet Yellen, who? Larry Summers wanted the job, but couldn’t win the support of leftish Democrats and feminists. Former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, who can have Ben Bernanke’s job as chairman of the Federal Reserve board for the asking, is said to have told the White House that he…
At first, it was fun—this parlor game of guessing who the Obama administration will appoint as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. We all assumed it would be Janet Yellen, because she’s a woman. And then suddenly we had Larry Summers all over the leading financial newspapers receiving…
Have you heard the news? Janet Yellen is positively clairvoyant!