Last week, Congressional Republicans wrote a new chapter in government reform, convening a meeting in Washington with 16 newly elected GOP governors. To some, the confab looked like just another photo-op celebrating the party’s historic gains in last month’s midterm elections.
Signs of a new political culture abound. Call it the era of “reverse pork barrel.”
Lots of people asked – before and after the midterm elections – if a Republican congressional majority would help or hurt President Obama’s reelection chances?
Never mind the talk of tsunamis and tidal waves, last Tuesday’s results revealed some storm clouds ahead for both parties. (Okay, I promise to stop sounding like the political Weather Channel.)
Last week I argued that President Obama and the Democrats failed to anticipate the counter mobilization created by passage of the health care law. And while some of the ghosts of health care haunted Democrats this past Tuesday, other White House and Democratic policies pursued in the last two…
Tuesday’s election produced another opportunity for hope and change in Washington.
Resurgent Republic released this pre-election memo on Friday that should top your weekend reading list. The analysis, authored by three top GOP strategists and Resurgent Republic leaders -- Ed Gillespie, Whit Ayers and Leslie Sanchez – argues that Obama and the Democrats’ slide among independent…
President Obama and Democratic leaders in Congress seriously misdiagnosed the politics of health care reform. Yet their malpractice is even more extensive than generally known.Polling consistently shows that opposition to the new law outstrips support. Rasmussen’s tracking surveys regularly…
This Newsweek poll released over the weekend found some surprisingly good news for Democrats. But it probably doesn’t mean much for President Obama and his party: the sample includes too many Democrats, at least based on a lot of other recent polls.
Around the 1964 presidential election--back when "Mad Man" Don Draper was still smoking Camels--men and women began to gradually diverge in their political views and behavior. We call this the “gender gap.”
Last week’s anemic jobs report came as a sobering reminder that America’s economic malaise shows little sign of slowing. Overall non-farm payrolls shrunk by 95,000 in September, while private sector hiring decelerated for the third consecutive month. High unemployment is now an acute national…
If the Republicans win enough seats in Congress this November, GOP leader John Boehner will become the next speaker of the House. The Ohio Republican would assume the gavel amid a maelstrom of polarization not seen since the late nineteenth century.
The 2010 federal fiscal year ended unceremoniously this week – a political and substantive fiasco for the Democrats. It included a cascade of miscalculations that could haunt the party in the November elections. But that pales in comparison to the serious harm they’ve inflicted on the American…
CNN released a new survey on Friday that found President Obama’s approval rating hit a new all time low. The network points to the listless economy and ongoing wars as the principal reasons for the public’s dissatisfaction with the White House:
Voter interest in the November elections continues its staggered crescendo. For candidates and consultants the long opus nears its denouement. But non-politicos – who react to different rhythms – are just now beginning to stir.
Many factors are contributing to President Obama’s decline in popularity since his historic election less than two years ago. A stagnant economy with stubbornly high unemployment certainly caused part of the downward trend. But there is more.
Earlier this week, President Obama proposed another round of stimulus spending, aiming to boost the sagging economy and—he vainly hopes—his party’s slumping political fortunes.
Last week House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio delivered a stinging critique of the Obama administration’s economic policies. But the White House’s swift and tart reaction to Boehner was both illuminating and sadly predictable.
Christian Science Monitor reporter Gail Russell Chaddock wrote this story yesterday about Democrats' tough sledding heading toward November, and specifically the congressional race in Virginia's 11th congressional district between incumbent Democrat Gerry Connelly and Republican challenger Keith…
Partisan polarization seems like it purchased a lifetime pass in this city.
I had the pleasure of traveling to California last week, a place D.H. Lawrence once described as “crazy sensible” because its people think about “just the moment: hardly as far ahead as carpe diem.”
The View’s hostesses probably won’t invite Senator John Thune on the show to discuss his new budget proposal. Ideas this thoughtful rarely attract pop culture media attention.
Polling on inside-the-beltway legislative issues is fraught with challenges because it requires translating Washington-speak into a language voters can understand.
It sounded very easy in theory. With the biggest tax increase in history set to go into effect on January 1, 2011, Democrats were poised to win the middle class rock heroes award.
The proportion of Republicans, Democrats, and independents that turnout to vote shape the outcome of every election. Even small shifts in these percentages can dramatically alter political outcomes. And this November’s midterm is no exception.
Last November, as members of the House of Representatives considered the health care reform bill, President Obama made a dramatic trip to Capitol Hill. After closing down sixteen blocks of Pennsylvania Avenue, a half-mile long White House motorcade whisked the presidential entourage past cheering…
The news media hailed President Obama’s victory on the Wall Street reform bill signed into law earlier this week as another example of his legislative prowess.
Do budget deficits matter? In one sense the answer is unequivocally yes. Experts agree that when the federal government spends more than it takes in for a sustained period and borrows to make up the difference, the result is severe economic consequences.
President Obama’s behavior over the past year, and particularly the last month, borders on bizarre. The candidate who promised to bring people together and move beyond polarization has morphed into a divisive and defensive president.
If legislation were dirt, Democrats would have piled up a mountain of it over the past 18 months, digging themselves in a deep political hole in the process.
When tiny globs of gooey brown oil began washing up on Gulf shores, it foreshadowed a more ominous environmental calamity lurking just over the horizon. These first signs were troubling enough. But they also revealed a more daunting threat riding incoming tides that might prove impossible to fix.
More bad news emerged yesterday for those Democrats hoping support for health care reform might boost their electoral fortunes. The short answer: it won't. At least, not in certain pivotal states and not with swing voters.
A new Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix poll (conducted June 5-8, 2010), finds that Republicans hold a substantial edge on a number of policy issues with two key voter groups – seniors (age 65+) and independents – five months before this year’s midterm elections.
Political enthusiasm is the secret sauce of American politics. When it comes to producing calories for winning elections, it’s the difference between a Big Mac and Lean Cuisine.
Zoila, Liam, and Alena were strangers with a shared goal. They met in Evanston, Illinois, last Saturday for the first time, telling other strangers they encountered as they walked door-to-door, “We’re here for the president.”
The day Abraham Lincoln delivered his electrifying speech at New York City’s Cooper Union in 1860, he sat for a now famous photograph by Mathew Brady. Lincoln’s stem-winding perorations that night won him high praise from political elites, but the picture – widely used and reproduced in the…
When Arizona Governor Jan Brewer signed her state’s new immigration law on April 23, reaction from the political Left was swift and furious. They predicted jack-booted rogue cops staging midnight raids on the homes of everyone.
Two seemingly unrelated news stories unfolded in Washington last week -- developments that could further stoke the flames of voter discontent across America. Taken together, these reports could also label the Democrats with an ugly and hard to erase moniker heading into the November elections: …
Congress has a black eye, and it’s starting to swell. As an institution, its approval ratings bounce near all time lows, creating a crisis in confidence among voters. Can Americans count on an institution so anemic in trust to heal the difficult and major problems confronting the nation?
Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress didn’t invent the politics of vilification, and they will not be the last to practice it. The president and his political allies, however, have refined the practice to an art form – they say they abhor vilification, yet consistently demonize when promoting…
Public opinion about the appropriate role of the federal government moves like the moon cycle, causing tidal shifts in citizen attitudes and election outcomes. After watching Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress over the past year and a half, attitudes about Washington are changing again,…
The American suburbs fueled the emergence of the Democratic congressional majority in 2006 and then helped expand it 2008. During those two election cycles, Republicans lost 24 incumbent or open seat races in these cul-de-sac filled districts.
Voters elected Barack Obama in November 2008 – at least in part – based on an American myth. Seventeen months later, the same allegory is creating a host of consequences for individual politicians, as well as the way citizens view political institutions like Congress.
In 1982, Tylenol faced a potentially lethal brand crisis. Someone tampered with its packaging in a number of Chicago retail locations, randomly lacing the pain relief capsules with cyanide. Fear and chaos ensued. Seven people died, and the well known product risked commercial extinction.
Success in America is an endangered species. Business bonuses are under heightened scrutiny; soon, making the right picks in the stock market or earning more than $200,000 per year will mean higher taxes; even the occasional business trips that “happened in Vegas” to reward top sales producers…
President Obama missed a host of opportunities to remedy Washington’s fever of polarization during the health care debate. Instead of forging a bipartisan coalition and ratcheting back the campaign-style rhetoric, he agreed to a one-party strategy and consistently demonized his opponents with over…
A new Resurgent Republic poll released today finds a host of opportunities for Republicans among this fast growing group of Americans.
If the Democrats’ health care bill were a chemical, the Environmental Protection Agency might label it as a toxic substance lethal to incumbents. More wavering House lawmakers are realizing this chilling electoral reality as the showdown vote approaches in the next several days.
Pew Research released a new analysis showing increasing concern among Americans about the federal budget deficit in the past six months. Those citing red ink as the “most important problem” reached the highest level in twenty years and nearly doubled, (from 6% in August of 2009 to 11% in January of…
When legislative leaders count votes before a bill comes to the floor they call it a “whip check.” It’s an old English phrase referring to those who kept the dogs in line during a foxhunt.
Midterm election forecasts by political scientists and economists are starting to roll out, and the picture is not pretty for the Democrats. This one by Emory University political scientist Alan I. Abramowitz writing for Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts a net loss of 37 Democratic House seats…
Conventional wisdom in Washington has already figured out the winners and losers of next week’s White House health care summit. The smart money is on President Obama. The silver-tongued orator will wow C-Span viewers, demonstrating his knack for substantive detail and cool debating style.
I first encountered the word Zugzwang in a 1985 New York Times Magazine column by the late William Safire. It’s a chess term that means “compelled to move, but imperiled by doing so.” The word’s political implications are profound.
President Obama’s political learning curve continues. Despite promising to end partisan polarization and change the tone of Washington, he – by his own admission – missed the mark during his first year in the White House.
Many immediately proclaimed last week’s Citizens United v. FEC Supreme Court decision as a huge win for business “special interests.” But those quick draw reactions are based more on ideology and political rhetoric than hard facts. While this latest change in the campaign finance landscape…
Representatives of organized labor met in the White House last week and cut a deal exempting union members from paying higher taxes as part of health care reform. It was a tawdry affair in many ways. But the meeting seems to have had an unintended consequence: Massachusetts has just elected a…
House Republican Leader John Boehner announced yesterday that his former long time aide Barry Jackson would return as his new chief of staff. Jackson replaces Paula Nowakoski who passed away unexpectedly last week.
The candidate of hope and change has now become a president of fear and doubt. This is hampering the economy and the American people's sense of security.
Legislative battles sometimes produce unlikely victims. After clashing with Republicans for months, Democrats appear poised to win a major partisan victory on health care.
A couple of weeks ago, amidst the prolonged drama surrounding Senate passage of the Democrats' health care bill, House Democrats unveiled another major policy initiative for 2010--a renewed effort to pass comprehensive immigration reform.
Democratic Rep. Parker Griffith of Alabama handed Republicans an early Christmas present this week, announcing on Tuesday he was switching parties and joining the GOP. And while President Obama's holiday wish list is still a state secret, hidden somewhere deep in the Oval Office, Mr. Parker's…
Many believe partisanship is a toxic compound--sludge that fouls the gears of legislative progress in Congress. Around this time of the year in Washington--when to-do lists are long and remaining legislative calendar days short--overheated congressional sprockets (and tempers) start to smoke.
Drenched in crocodile tears, many in the pundit class now portray the GOP as hopelessly divided by fringe groups and internal dissensions.
With news spreading today that Democrats may abandon the "public option" in the health care reform bill, Senate Republicans issued this analysis suggesting the new "cure" may be worse than the disease. Here's the text of a memo issued by the Senate Republican Policy Committee earlier this…
President Obama convenes a "jobs summit" at the White House today, as our nation faces its worst employment crisis in the last 25 years. In preparation, he should carefully read an article in the October edition of Trends magazine titled, America's Future: California vs. Texas.
Democrats in Congress may need redemption with voters next year. But can President Obama save them?
Congress as an institution will never win any popularity sweepstakes. More than any other branch of government, it's a forum for open, raucous, and partisan debate. And as a result, it also exposes the lack of consensus on many public policy questions. Yet as this recent Gallup poll finds, public…
The political collars continue to tighten around Blue Dogs and other Democrats representing Republican-leaning congressional districts. Recent election results in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as a bevy of new polls, all suggest these vulnerable lawmakers face an increasingly hostile environment…
Pundits and analysts are scratching their heads to explain Democratic defeats in Virginia and New Jersey last week, particularly examining what caused massive shifts toward the GOP among independent voters in those two states.
Press reports say President Obama didn't watch election returns on Tuesday. And while he didn't get any "3 a.m. phone calls" about the results, I am sure at some point he heard the results and was not too happy when he did.
In his book Nixonland: The Rise of a President and the Fracturing of America, historian Rick Perlstein argues the seeds of today's polarized politics were sown during the 1960s and 1970s. He traces the fault lines of contemporary controversies such as marriage, abortion, the environment, the role…
Democrats face a growing political crisis with federal spending and debt, a self-inflicted quandary they created in some obvious and non-obvious ways.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi is one of the most well-known lawmakers in history. But will her notoriety help Democrats or swell Republican ranks next year?
In his State of the Union address a little over 13 years ago, Bill Clinton proclaimed "the era of big government" was over. After a year of butting heads with the new Republican majority in Congress, President Clinton signaled a willingness to change course and acknowledge the message voters sent…
Once the health care debate ends, President Obama faces another daunting challenge: curbing an unsustainable level of debt in the federal budget. This is more than next year's problem because the two issues are also linked in a non-obvious way. Due to how Congress addresses deficit reduction,…
The 2010 midterm elections are quickly approaching and congressional Democrats are already feeling some ominous symptoms. If history is any indicator, the prognosis promises only to get worse. The president's party nearly always loses seats in off-year elections--shedding 22 House seats on average…
Speaker Nancy Pelosi promised the most "honest, most open and most ethical Congress in history." Shouldn't an institution committed to those lofty ideals give its members the chance to read legislation before voting on it? We might find out the answer soon. A bipartisan effort is underway to force…
A familiar refrain haunts Virginia politics these days. Democrats in the Old Dominion are whistling their favorite number: Republican gubernatorial hopeful Bob McDonnell is--cue the scary tune--"too extreme for Virginia."
A gathering sense of unease is spreading across America. It's more than worries about the economy or jobs. Those have been around for a while and will no doubt persist.
President Obama's performance among young voters in 2008 was an electoral tour de force. He thumped his rival John McCain by 34 points (66 percent to 32 percent) among those 18 to 29 years old.
Gallup released a report yesterday highlighting a significant narrowing in the self-reported party identification gap since January. Democrats began the year with a 17-point advantage (52%-35%). Some of the spread back then reflected post-election Obama euphoria. Many like to be on the winning…
Summer is not the only thing sliding away. When Congress returns next week, Democratic leaders will get an earful of advice from rank-and-file members about how to stop their political slippage. But it's unclear whether much can be done. That's because independent voters are the catalyst behind…
President Obama's election campaign dazzled the political world with its use of the Internet as an electoral tool. Fundraising, voter communication, and citizen mobilization were just a few of the tactics that reached new levels of intensity, sophistication and success via the Internet. More than…
The case for divided government. Inclement political weather rocked President Obama and his party this summer. Falling poll numbers and growing voter misgivings open the door for big Republican gains in next year's midterm elections.
Can Obamacare withstand the August heat? When House Republican leader John Boehner left Washington less than two weeks ago, he predicted Democratic lawmakers would face a long, hot summer of discontent on health care with the folks back home. His prognosis now looks like a precise political CAT…
The Democrats' health-care overhaul stands at a critical juncture in Congress. With public opposition rising, President Obama faces some key strategic decisions to advance the bill through the legislative thicket.
What Obama could learn from Bush on health care. The Democrats' health-care overhaul stands at a critical juncture in Congress. With public opposition rising, President Obama faces some key strategic decisions to advance the bill through the legislative thicket.
House Republican Leader John Boehner has a new video, calling President Obama's "medical judgments" into question with a great soap opera tune in the background. Watch it here:
Gallup released some new polling today suggesting Democrats will face stiffer political challenges in 2010 than in the past two electoral cycles. Democrats currently hold a slight 50%-44% lead in the generic ballot ("if the election were held today, which party would you vote for"). But as Gallup…
Legislative proposals don't suffer massive heart attacks, but health care reform experienced some serious chest pains over the past couple of weeks. Part of the diagnosis for President Obama's signature policy initiative is straightforward: the transition from feel-good slogans to specific plans…
Channeling Woody Allen on Health Care For nearly two decades--and probably longer--Republicans lagged Democrats when it came to voter trust on health care. But for a variety of reasons, that deficit is easing.
Lots of interesting data from the ABC News/Washington Post poll today. Read a summary of the top line findings here. The four-month trend in the question below is probably producing a Rolaids moment for Obama. The overall results are troubling enough. But I suspect the numbers are even worse among…
Increasing the role of government during economic turmoil is not a novel concept. Some believe people are hungrier for an extra helping of Washington stew at times like this. And President Obama, along with Democrats in Congress, seem more than willing to serve it up.
Just when you thought Democrats might drive Republicans into Chapter 11, this survey released by Rasmussen last week shows major gains for Republicans on key electoral issues. The poll finds voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on eight of ten major electoral issues, a stunning turnaround…
Some political commentators label Barack Obama as America's first "urban president." As Quinnipiac University's Peter Brown explained in the Wall Street Journal last November, "Let's be clear: Urban is not meant as a euphemism for black or liberal, although the president-elect is both. Mr. Obama is…
Health care reform moves into high gear this month in Congress, as lawmakers move beyond slogans to concrete ideas. Accompanying the heightened legislative activity is a chorus of new surveys, studies and think tank analyses--all intended to underscore one point or another.
A recent Washington Post headline blared some unhappy news for the White House: "Obama Initiatives Hit Speed Bumps On Capitol Hill." Moving from popular campaign slogans like "change" to actual legislation is difficult. At one level, Obama understands this. "We've got a much longer journey to…
Democratic advocates of a government run health insurance option are touting a New York Times poll released over the weekend as more evidence of public support for their pet idea. In a front page article on Saturday, the paper blared this news based on its new survey: Americans overwhelmingly…
Government programs don't believe in heaven, but many seem to have eternal life. That federal initiatives grow old but never die is particularly significant today. Fueled by ideology and equipped with a large majority in Congress, President Obama and his allies on Capitol Hill are injecting…
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded like a fiscal Paul Revere last week, warning Congress about the dangers of an advancing army of debt.
Like most political reforms, the Obama administration's attempt to clean up lobbying is beset with unintended consequences. The president's policies are producing an explosion in interest-group activity, and much of the growth is taking place outside the scope of federal disclosure and other…
When pundits talk about religion and politics they usually include obligatory references to Republican ties to the "religious right." Based on recent history, there's some justification for the connection. John McCain won "born again" white voters 74%-24% in 2008, and George W. Bush prevailed with…
Is all the talk among conservatives and Republicans about the dangers of the mounting federal debt starting to get some traction? A Rasmussen poll suggests that it is: Support for health care reform has slipped slightly as more voters think President Obama should work harder on his promise to cut…
Beverly Hills and the Appalachian Mountains don't have a lot in common--geographically, culturally or politically. One region produces a lot of coal to keep people warm and fuels American industry; the other is the home of Hollywood and generates, well . . . a lot of hot air. That's one reason why…
If you're a Republican you may want to stop reading right now - or at least don't let the kids see this! Gallup issued a new report yesterday tabulating changes in party identification across a host of subgroups between 2001 and 2009. The results? The political equivalent of a car wreck.…
New Jersey voters could witness a real slugfest this November in the state's gubernatorial election. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Corzine is facing stiff competition from Republican Chris Christie, according to a new Rasmussen poll released last week. Looking behind the numbers suggests the…
Capitol Hill insiders often use the phrase "kick the can" to describe legislative procrastination. Can't fix a problem? No worries. Leave it to the next Congress. And on thorny issues, where consensus is elusive, lawmakers do a lot of kicking.
Senator Arlen Specter's party switch last week rekindled the long-smoldering debate about the Republican party's future. For many, his high-profile defection is more evidence that the GOP is destined for a fiery demise. It's part of what Real Clear Politics writer Jay Cost describes as "the GOP is…
Before California Rep. Darrell Issa came to Congress, he founded a company called Directed Electronics, whose most well-known product was the Viper car alarm system. Turns out securing automobiles may be the least of Issa's talents. As the senior Republican on the House Oversight and Government…
Several data points suggest appointed Colorado senator Michael Bennet is headed for some rough political sledding as he approaches his first statewide election next year. Bennet was appointed by the state's Democratic governor to fill the seat vacated when President Obama picked Colorado senator…
It's no surprise that "change-minded" Democrats are mute on the issue of transforming the so-called toxic effect of money in politics. Since Democrats now have an overall cash advantage, why alter the game?
Barack Obama tied down a series of big legislative victories in his first few months in office--an expanded health-care program for kids, massive economic stimulus legislation, and substantially increased funding for this year's federal budget. Yet ironically these notches in his accomplishment…
Despite President Obama's preference for Washington-based solutions to everything that worries Americans, some believe there are alternatives. President Reagan in the 1980s, and congressional Republicans in the 1990s, promoted the devolution of money, power and influence out of Washington and…
Big shifts among independent voters toward Democrats caused Republicans to lose the majority in Congress in 2006 and then shed even more seats in the House and Senate in 2008. Some argue these trends presage a permanent GOP congressional minority--or maybe even signal Republicans are on a path…
Pew released a poll last week showing the partisan gap in President Obama's approval numbers is the largest in modern history. Like many recent surveys, Pew finds Obama's overall approval rating at 59 percent. But unpacking those numbers demonstrates the largest variability among self-identified…
A little less than a year ago, I participated in a meeting in Washington, D.C., with some prominent political analysts forecasting the 2008 election. One topic focused on trends in the youth vote. For Republicans, the patterns were ominous. George W. Bush lost to John Kerry among 18-29-year-olds by…
Tuesday night President Obama appeared undeterred by the consequences of debt and long-term deficits in his budget, arguing his fiscal "investments" are inseparable from the economic recovery. In coming months, however, messages from the bond market and foreign investors may change his tune.…
This new poll released by Zogby showing President Obama's approval rating dropping to around 50 percent has caused quite a stir in the last day or so. The Boston Herald's Joe Dwinell caught wind of the new survey and wrote before it was released: The honeymoon is over, a national poll will signal…
A new Gallup poll released last week should send cold chills up the spines of those promoting global warming legislation. For the first time in Gallup's 25-years of asking Americans about the trade-off between environmental protection and economic growth, a majority says the economy should be a the…
Over the past two weeks, I've witnessed road rage on three separate occasions. Curiously, the incidents had several things in common. First, each perpetrator was a white woman in the 18-29-year-old demographic, infatuated with the sound of her own horn. Second, they each drove a car that probably…
NPR released a new bipartisan poll today conducted by Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Glen Bolger. The survey's congressional generic ballot results are perhaps the most interesting finding, where Democrats have slipped from a double-digit lead in October 2006 (51 percent to 40 percent) to a…
"You've got to give it all you can, that first year," the president told a senior advisor. "Doesn't matter what kind of majority you come in with. You've got just one year when they treat you right." President Obama, however, did not utter these words of wisdom to Rahm Emanuel or David Axelrod last…
President Obama has embarked on one of the most audacious experiments in American political history. He's trying to expand support among America's broad middle class through new programmatic appeals, while paying for this new largesse by boosting taxes on "the wealthy"--those individuals who earn…
Rasmussen has released a poll that finds a plurality of voters believe health care reform should be delayed until the economy improves: President Obama told the nation last week that health care reform is one of the top three priorities of his administration, but 49% of U.S. voters say the…
CONGRESSIONAL SPECIAL ELECTIONS don't normally generate much national buzz. But the race to fill the House seat previously held by New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand might be an exception. The election in the state's 20th Congressional District--now scheduled for March 31--pits New York Assembly…
Gallup has evaluated first-month job approval for U.S. presidents going back to Richard Nixon. A few points deserve note. First, Obama's 63 percent approval level is about the same as the average of all presidents (62 percent) going back to 1968 during their first month in office. Barack Obama's…
ILLINOIS CONGRESSMAN Mark Kirk wants to take a bite out of suburban crime. And in doing so, he also hopes to curb the growing Democratic advantage on some political turf Republicans used to dominate. Last week Kirk unveiled a list of the "Top 10 Most Wanted Gang Members" in Lake County, Illinois, a…
As House Democrats set their sights on producing a new energy and climate change bill by Memorial Day, voters tell Rasmussen they support increasing supply versus reducing demand by about a two-to-one margin. When asked, "Which is more important, finding new sources of energy or reducing the amount…
Campaigns are generous forums. They allow politicians to make claims difficult to refute. Only the most coldhearted could oppose more hope, change and bipartisanship.
In a new poll released today, Rasmussen reports 62% of voters want the stimulus bill to include more tax cuts and less spending. These results are consistent with a CBS poll released last week. Rasmussen writes: With the Senate poised to vote Tuesday on an $827-billion version of the economic…
"CONGRESS IS LIKE A whiskey drinker," President Lyndon Johnson once observed. "You can put an awful lot of whiskey into a man if you just let him sip it," he said. "But if you try to force the whole bottle down his throat at one time, he'll throw it up."
Republican pollster and communications strategist Steve Lombardo weighed-in recently on a couple interesting questions related to the Bush presidency. First, Lombardo argues that the 43rd president's approval is what I would describe as "term dependent." And second, while a high percentage of…
Like any new president, Barack Obama needs some early legislative victories. And he started down that path last night with House passage, by a vote of 244-188, of his economic stimulus bill--albeit without any support from the Republicans.
All House Republicans on the Appropriations Committee voted against the "stimulus bill" reported out of their panel last week. This portion of the stimulus legislation will be combined with the tax provisions (reported from the Ways and Means Committee last week also on a party-line vote, with all…
I believe the folks over at The Democratic Strategist write some of the most insightful analyses of contemporary American politics. Ed Kilgore's recent post on Obama and Values-Based messaging continues that tradition. Many conservative pundits and Republican activists criticized President Obama…
President Barack Obama's presidential campaign set new standards for success in fundraising, voter mobilization, and Internet political savvy.
During the last presidential campaign, some believed conservative Republicans' opposition to comprehensive immigration reform turned off Hispanic voters toward the GOP. But this new survey from Pew suggests the issue ranks a little lower in the minds of Latinos than suggested by conventional…
After counting all the ballots, the 2008 election produced record year for voter turnout. Many believe president-elect Barack Obama's candidacy was solely responsible for producing the boost. He generated significant enthusiasm among supporters and sent a thrill up the leg of many members of the…
Pew Research reports more bad news for the struggling traditional newspaper business. According to a survey released last month, the Internet overtook newspapers for the first time in 2008 as the main source of domestic and international news. Forty percent of Americans responded that the Internet…
When the Democrats captured the majority in Congress two years ago, some of their boosters in the media like Joe Klein predicted an outbreak of "centrism." Red State Democrats would ease their party to the middle and end the era of extreme partisan polarization. Back then Klein wrote a Time cover…
President Bush approved a short-term bridge loan to Detroit on Friday averting a pre-New Year's bankruptcy for one or more of the auto companies. But the White House action also kicked the can to the Obama administration to figure out a longer-term solution. Many national polling organizations have…
According to Pew Research, nearly one out of four Americans under 40 has a tattoo. The new poll finds 36% in the 18-25 age group and 40% of folks age 26-40 sport this form of "self expression." Pew writes this: Gen Nexters, Americans in the 18-25 age bracket, are not afraid to express themselves…
George Washington University political scientist Henry Farrell posts this item today reporting on a conference he recently attended at Harvard about the political applications of the Internet in the 2008 campaign. Farrell includes some comments from Obama campaign representatives who note that…
Rasmussen released a poll yesterday gauging a head-to-head match-up between Republican incumbent Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter and Democrat Chris Matthews, host of MSNBC's Hardball. The survey of 500 registered voters in the state shows Specter leading by a slim 46 percent to 43 percent…
A recent Pew Research report reinforces other polling on American political ideology, but it also reveals some interesting twists in public opinion. First, as the 2008 exit polls demonstrated, Republicans' problems this year had more to do with fewer voters self-identifying with the GOP than a…
Eighteen to twenty-nine-year-old turnout did not live up to all the pre-election hype. According to CNN exit polls, the proportion of voters under 30 increased by about 1 percent nationally--from 17 percent of the electorate in 2004 to 18 percent this year. Yet even if their share of the electorate…
This morning Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and Senator Norm Coleman conducted a conference call to review the latest information on the Coleman/Franken Senate race in Minnesota. Here are the highlights of the call: The recount began yesterday. Counties will continue their work over the…
Rasmussen released results of a new national poll yesterday showing Americans put more faith in the concept of free market capitalism than they do in our national leaders' ability to apply it. According to the poll: Forty-four percent (44%) of Americans agree with President Bush's declaration last…
This chart from a recent Pew report about the youth vote is fascinating. We've all seen the numbers on the growing Obama and Democratic edge among voters under 30 repeated ad nauseam. But it's interesting how closely various subgroups of voters over 30 divided. 2008 would have been a nail biter…
We all know by now that President-elect Obama improved his performance among a host of voter subgroups compared to John Kerry four years ago. Political Scientist Charles Franklin arrays the change in this interesting chart that displays how well Obama did and how far McCain slipped among key…
Don't think Republicans are the only ones gnashing their teeth about their party's future. Democrats are also debating the meaning of the 2008 election and where they go from here to consolidate and expand their gains. (True, their debates are still under the heavy influence of Dom Perignon). One…
The 2008 campaign produced a record number of surveys, and it turns out that most of the major public polls were pretty accurate. That's the assessment of Fordham political scientist Costas Panagopoulos, who writes: On average, pre-election polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a…
Turnout increased by over 10 million people compared to 2004, according to preliminary estimates by political scientist Michael McDonald at George Mason University. McDonald posts a lot of interesting data about voting levels on his website here. Some argued that because 2004 generated such high…
Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com has some good advice about exit polls. Why hasn't any information about preliminary results been floating around in emails and on blogs like in years past? Following a lot of criticism about early leaks in 2004, the network consortium that conducts the exits polls…
Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com has some good advice about exit polls. Why hasn't any information about preliminary results been floating around in emails and on blogs like in years past? Following a lot of criticism about early leaks in 2004, the network consortium that conducts the exits polls…
I'm not a fan of campaign finance "reform." I believe it always results in unintended consequences--usually worse than the status quo. But Democrats have changed directions so quickly on the issue, the party may have to issue neck braces to manage their strained principles. Look, I get it. The…
The McCain campaign's high command conducted a conference call this morning and communicated a strong, upbeat message. Campaign manager Rick Davis kicked things off by predicting we'll see "the greatest comeback since John McCain won the New Hampshire primary." Davis saw "gains in all the…
While the U.S. economy's declining, national polling is a growth industry. Karl Rove noted on last week's Fox News Sunday that the number of national polls released in October 2008 compared to the same month in 2004 grew by 300 percent (55 national polls were release October 1-23, 2004, compared to…
Two new polls in closely watched Senate races deserve note. First, in Alaska, Rasmussen released its first results post conviction in the Stevens/Begich race. Stevens now trails by 8 points. The shift merits mention because, yesterday--before adding this poll into the mix--the Real Clear Politics…
Can Democrats reach a filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate? State level polling averages reported in this morning's Real Clear Politics (RCP) reveal that the road to sixty votes--while not impossible--looks pretty tough for the Democrats. But the numbers also show little margin of error for…
House Republican Leader John Boehner circulated a memo to all Republican House members and candidates this weekend urging them to get behind a new economic recovery plan he will unveil today. Boehner writes this in the memo: Pelosi has declared that Congress will pass a $300 billion "stimulus"…
I found this article by Shailagh Murray in the Sunday Washington Post curious. It argues the number of people who say they want the same party to control both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue has reached "new highs." Murray writes: The percentage of Americans saying they preferred that the same party…
Early voting has been on the rise. Gallup released a new report today that notes 11% of registered voters have already cast their ballots, with another 19% saying they still plan to vote before Election Day. If 30% vote early it will represent a 7-point increase over the 22% who cast early ballots…
Given the hype of the Obama candidacy and his campaign's massive mobilization effort, will America's youth deliver for "The One?" Millennial voters certainly have a lot of encouragement this year. As Tom Edmunds points out in this recent piece in Politics magazine: Judging from all the hype, you'd…
We used to have "tax and spend" liberals. Today we have tax "as" spend politicians. The Tax Foundation argues Washington policymakers increasingly use tax policy instead of direct spending to channel government money to favored groups and causes. Scott A. Hodge of the Foundation writes: Over the…
I still remember when parents worried their kids watched too much TV. Never mind. The Internet solved that problem. Pew released an interesting new report this week called "Networked Families," exploring how technology affects family communications and lifestyles. It looks at how the proliferation…
A growing number of Americans now cast their ballots early. In 2004, more than one out of five voters (22.5%) cast ballots either through absentee or some other form of early voting. That number is expected to rise even more in 2008--maybe as high as 25% nationally, and in some states, even higher.…
Barack Obama has improved his standing among a variety of voter subgroups since mid-September based on Gallup's recent polling. I noted his positive move among seniors in a post last week. The latest subgroup analysis released from Gallup reveals another interesting shift: a notable swing toward…
Survey USA now reports the number of people who say they have "already voted" in many of its pre-election polls. This is an important tool to gauge how the presidential race is unfolding among those who have already cast their ballots. Nate Silver looks at these results from five states (NC, GA,…
Gallup released a report today highlighting some of its recent polling on issues and candidate evaluations before tonight's final presidential debate. The stability of certain dimensions of the race is striking, given the big shift in the horserace polling numbers in the last few weeks. For…
John McCain's slip in the polls over the past few weeks is creating a drag for down-ticket Republican House candidates across the country. GOP congressional losses could top twenty or more, depending on how the political environment settles in the next couple of weeks. Jim Ellis, who writes for a…
Three big questions about the accuracy of polling regularly resurface during the 2008 campaign, according to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com. Expect to hear more about each of these in the weeks ahead. 1. Will the growth of the "cell-phone-only" voter bias polls against Obama? Most surveys sample…
Amidst all the talk about the presidential race, we sometimes forget about the governors--the chief executives in laboratories of democracy, and major players in the post-2010 congressional redistricting. One reason for the lack of attention is the relatively small number of races in '08. This year…
Since August, Gallup has presented its tracking polls broken down by voter subgroups. With two months of data collected, some interesting trends emerge. One of the most troubling for the McCain campaign is the shift among seniors. McCain supporters had hoped older voters would offset his deficit…
As I wrote yesterday, opponents of John McCain are misrepresenting his health care plan. Some do so deliberately, like the Obama ads that only tell half the story, as I argued in my post. Others, I assume, are done out of pure ignorance, like this story by Froma Harrop posted on the Rasmussen…
The Obama campaign stepped up its rhetoric against the McCain health care plan over the last week with a new series of ads. But leave it to Paul Krugman at the New York Times to confuse, twist and misrepresent the McCain proposal. In today's column, "Health Care Destruction," Krugman writes: Mr.…
Many independent women are still up for grabs in the last month of the election, making this cohort a critical target group for both campaigns. According to a new Gallup report released today, Obama draws significant support among some in the independent woman subgroup: • those with no religious…
Compared to self-identified partisans, independent voters march more to the beat of pop culture and the dominant news narrative. They pay closer attention to Tina Fey's weekly lampooning of Sarah Palin than the speeches or policy positions of the presidential campaigns. Independents are also among…
North Carolina, a traditional Republican stronghold, took a sharp turn toward Barack Obama in the last several weeks. It's no secret GOP political strategists had sought to lock up the Tar Heel state early--it's voted Republican in 9 out of the past 10 presidential elections (Jimmy Carter, the last…
The presidential race remains highly volatile. A recent Diageo/Hotline poll found 23 percent of voters are undecided and another 9 percent saying they still might change their minds. Now, that doesn't mean over a third of the electorate are truly swing voters. Partisans in this crowd will probably…
Post-debate "snap" surveys aimed at determining a "winner" are in vogue given the proliferation of polling by media outlets this election cycle. But what do the results really mean for the November election? Pollster.com summarizes the five post-debate polls (and a focus group) from last Friday…
Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center argues 2008 is the most unpredictable election in decades. "In every recent election the public has accurately picked the winner by this time in the cycle," he wrote yesterday. And as the chart below demonstrates, since 1992, by pretty healthy…
Mark Blumenthal updates his battleground state poll of polls this morning. Like Real Clear Politics, he loads new surveys in his modeling every day to produce a new "average" result by state. According to Blumenthal, 12 states now fall into the "toss-up" category: Four show a statistically…
McCain-Palin campaign lead pollster, Bill McInturff, and Director of Strategy, Sarah Simmons, conducted a conference call this morning in response to the ABC News/Washington Post poll released today showing Barack Obama opening up a 52 percent to 43 percent lead over John McCain. McInturff sees the…
This Friday night John McCain and Barack Obama meet in the first presidential general election debate in Oxford, Mississippi. The subject: national security. The stakes are high for both camps--or are they? Political scientist Tom Holbrook argues that despite all the emphasis on the debates, these…
Pollster Steve Lombardo makes some noteworthy points about the presidential race in a post yesterday at Pollster.com. First, he argues the contest is "on the verge of becoming a single-issue election." Lombardo cites the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll showing "economy and jobs" (48%)…
Remember that sneaking suspicion the media was swooning over Barack Obama this summer? Time magazine covers, coverage of Obama with Germans rediscovering their love for mass rallies, etc. Turns out, based on media mentions, the Democratic nominee did get a lot more attention. The chart below…
A new Pew survey demonstrates what many other national polls have revealed in the last few days--the national horserace is about as tight as possible. The latest Pew research finds the race at a near dead heat of 46 percent Obama and 44 percent McCain, nearly identical to the pre-convention 46…
The Democracy Corps (James Carville and Stan Greenberg) released a new poll this week assessing the state of the presidential campaign following the two parties' conventions. The survey reports results from both a national sample and a sub-sample of likely voters in over a dozen battleground…
Some Democrats, such as former Clinton White House official Bill Galston, are going public with their concerns about the trajectory of the Obama campaign. This "open letter" posted at The Democratic Strategist blog articulates a growing worry among some that Obama is on a path to "losing the…
In yesterday's Washington Post article by Dan Balz and Peter Slevin, Obama's chief strategist David Axlerod argued McCain's post-convention bounce in the national polls was driven by the Republican ticket's surge in red states. "I think one of the things driving the national polls is that the red…
The Obama campaign continues to struggle gaining significant support among white working class voters. Ron Brownstein writes in his most recent piece: In the Diageo/Hotline daily tracking survey this week, Obama was winning just 30 percent of white men without a college education, even lower than…
A senior Senate leadership aide asked me yesterday, "Is it cool to be a Republican again?" He was, of course, responding to the array of positive public opinion data released in the last week following the GOP convention. I'm sure most Americans rarely conflate "Republican" and "cool," but some…
I like to remind people that we don't elect presidents by national plebiscite. So don't overly obsess about national polls. National surveys have a place - they can reveal significant patterns on measures such as enthusiasm and trends among key voter groups, such as undecided Americans. But in the…
Recent polling reveals a predictable partisan reaction to Sarah Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee - Republicans swooned, Democrats were less impressed, with "independents" somewhere in between. Sharp political divisions among self-identified partisans are not surprising. But a closer look…
The new ABC/Washington Post poll News must be generating some smiles in the McCain camp. Strategists for the Arizona Senator's campaign have worked hard, looking for ways to boost his support among women. Boosting support among women - particularly white, suburbanites has challenged the campaign…
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