President-elect Donald Trump has offered Nikki Haley the role of United State ambassador to the United Nations. The two-term Republican governor of South Carolina has reportedly accepted:
The WEEKLY STANDARD Podcast with senior editor Christopher Caldwell on the Clintons and their scandals.
With more than a year and a half until Election Day 2016, things are already gearing up for high-profile political contests, and not just on the presidential level. In Ohio, the quintessential presidential battleground state, first-term Republican senator Rob Portman is one of the Democrats’ top…
A new poll shows Florida Republican governor Rick Scott behind his most likely opponent, Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist, by 10 points. The Quinnipiac poll of registered voters found 48 percent support Crist while 38 percent support Scott. Scott's fortunes would improve…
Republican governor Paul LePage of Maine has a slight lead over his Democratic challenger, House member Mike Michaud, according to a new poll of the race. Here's more from the Portland Press-Herald:
One Colorado Republican running for the U.S. Senate this year has a message for voters: He cares. Ken Buck, who is running to challenge incumbent Democrat Mark Udall, has a new ad in a series touting his record of helping people in his role as district attorney of Weld County, north of the Denver…
A new poll of likely voters in Michigan shows GOP candidates for U.S. Senate and the governorship ahead of their Democratic counterparts. According to the Detroit Free Press, the latest EPIC-MRA poll shows incumbent Republican governor Rick Snyder leading his challenger, Democrat Mark Schauer, 47…
Perhaps it's sour grapes, or perhaps it's a recent reawakening, but in a speech by Nancy Pelosi at Tufts University earlier this week, the former speaker of the House had some advice for her Republican colleagues in particular and some reflections on elections in general:
During last year's election cycle, the Obama administration criticized conservative 501(c)(4) political action committees. President Obama himself called the existence of such groups a "threat to our democracy." The Democratic National Committee ran an ad speculating that Republicans taking…
In a recent call with liberal college groups (at 6:14 on the podcast), Health and Human Services secretary Kathleen Sebelius said, regarding Obamacare: “Now, it’s really disappointing that some in Congress are still trying to repeal the law and argue the results of the last two years.” Hmm. Well,…
Earlier this evening, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty was asked for his opinion of Syria on the Hugh Hewitt radio show. “Bashar al-Assad is a dictator,” said Pawlenty, a prospective Republican presidential candidate for the 2012 election, referencing the Syrian strongman who is brutally…
Elections have consequences, and in Alabama the consequences have come quickly and decisively.
Over the weekend, Texas Republican representative Lamar Smith penned an interesting column for the Washington Post arguing that the GOP's haul among Hispanic voters was "historically robust." Is this conclusion correct? If so, what does it mean, about both 2010 and the future of the Republican…
On Election Night a few weeks back, several races remained outstanding. In the weeks that have followed, all but one of the contests has been settled, with the final one (NY-1) now being tended to by a judge. Let's run down the results.
The Syracuse Post-Standard reports that Republican Ann Marie Buerkle's lead has grown to 567 votes over Democratic congressman Dan Maffei, and it's hard to see how Maffei could pull this off:
There is an under-noticed bright spot for the Republican Party after the recent midterm election: Gains with Hispanic voters and Hispanic politicians.
Birmingham
I think we lost the election on November 2. Every race was won by a politician. True, we elected some angry nuts. These are preferable to common politicians. Their anger provokes honesty, and their mental illness prevents honesty from being obscured by charm. (What a loss -Barney Frank would have…
Today we continue our post-election overview by looking at the West. Historically, the West has been a fairly volatile region. In the 1880s the Republican Party figured that the West would be a GOP bastion, and accordingly the 51st Congress (1889-90) added four western states to the Union (plus…
On November 7, 2006, the Democrats marked their takeover of Congress with a raucous celebration at the Hyatt Regency hotel on Capitol Hill. Balloons and confetti fell from the ceiling as the party’s leaders stood on the stage arm-in-arm, beaming with joy. “Tonight is a great victory for the…
Ben Smith has a good piece on John Thune’s vulnerabilities as a 2012 presidential candidate. Smith’s post raises the central question: Is Thune too “establishment” for the current political environment?
Never mind the talk of tsunamis and tidal waves, last Tuesday’s results revealed some storm clouds ahead for both parties. (Okay, I promise to stop sounding like the political Weather Channel.)
Today's post is the first entry in a four-part series analyzing the 2010 midterm election. My plan is to break it down by region, and I begin today with the South – or more specifically, the 11 states that made up the old Confederacy.
The Washington Post reports that Republican House candidate Keith Fimian has conceded to Democratic incumbent Gerry Connolly in Virginia's Eleventh Congressional District. Politico lists eight other House races that as of last night were still unresolved. One of the most interesting of those…
Bad enough for the Democrats that they just lost their House majority and saw their Senate advantage tumble from 60 seats two years ago to 53 (it could have been worse), but now they must brace for the effects of the 2010 Census. As the Washington Post's Charles Lane reminds us,
In the midst of a resounding national rebuke at all levels of government, the Democrats have been taking some solace in having held the Senate. But to put the Republicans' Senate gains this week into perspective, Republicans won an even higher percentage of Senate races than House races (they won…
“The people have spoken, the bastards,” said minor politician and prankster Dick Tuck after losing his bid for a seat in the California State Senate almost 50 years ago. Barack Obama undoubtedly shares that sentiment as he plans to face a Republican-controlled House of Representatives and a Senate…
Politico reports:
THE WEEKLY STANDARD was already in good cheer after Tuesday’s election. But then came the news at the end of the week, as the magazine went to press, that Nancy Pelosi has decided to try to retain her position as the top House Democrat, and will stand for House minority leader in January.
Those seeking to explain the decisive Republicans victory in the midterm elections have essentially divided into two camps. The first says the Democrats were primarily the victims of a poor economy. The second says they were the victims of their own policies, and particularly of their centerpiece…
Fred Barnes writes in today's Wall Street Journal:
One of the most important results of Tuesday's election occurred below the governor, Senate, and House lines on the ballot. The Republicans overwhelmed the Democrats in state legislative races all across the country, picking up more than 500 seats and flipping a dozen and a half legislative…
Democratic pollster Pat Caddell just finished providing a remarkable rebuttal on Fox News to President Obama's assertion in his post-election press conference that, "[T]here is no doubt that people's number-one concern is the economy, and what they were expressing great frustration about…
I think it's worth mentioning that, in a federal election of some historic significance, foreign and defense policy played a relatively small role. To be sure, foreign policy seldom plays an important role in American electoral contests, and mid-term elections are especially occupied with domestic…
The last time the Republicans gained this many seats in the House while also regaining control of the chamber was in the 19th century. Moreover, at President Obama's press conference following this historic repudiation of him and his party by the American voters, the first three questions offered a…
That sound you hear is my muffled cry -- I'm buried under a mound of electoral data! Rather than somehow dredge a theme out of this mess, here are some impressions:
1. Nancy Pelosi will presumably step down as Democratic leader in the House. Steny Hoyer could be challenged from the left as he seeks to move up to replace her, and he could lose--partly because the defeat of Democrats in swing districts throughout the country yesterday will move the…
Last night, the Republicans made history in the House of Representatives. As of this writing, the GOP has been declared the winner in or is winning in 243 House districts. If this number holds, it would exceed any Republican majority since 1946.
Some Republican House victories will be sweeter for conservatives to savor than others.
The polls were wrong: The networks and the AP have called the Nevada Senate race for Majority Leader Harry Reid. With 41% of precincts reporting, Reid is leading Angle, 50% to 45%.
Iraq veteran and Republican Adam Kinzinger has defeated Democratic congresswoman Debbie Halvorson in Illinois's Eleventh District, and Republican Bobby Schilling, the owner of a pizza place in Moline, has defeated Democratic Rep. Phil Hare in Illinois's Seventeenth District. Our own Matthew…
If the 2010 midterms are, in fact, the wave they seem to be, it will have crested in the Midwest. The numbers in Wisconsin are huge – much bigger than pre-election polls suggested. One of the big winners is Scott Walker, the Republican candidate for governor. With 44 percent reporting, Walker holds…
Democrats in Georgia appears to have been reduced to four House districts, three of which are in minority districts in Metro Atlanta. Blue Dogs Jim Marshall of the Eighth District and Sanford Bishop of the Second District seem to have fallen to Republicans Austin Scott and Mike Keown, respectively.…
Fox News projects that the GOP will gain more than 39 seats needed to take control of the House. In Virginia, Republicans are on the verge of sweeping all competitive House seats.
National Review reports:
You know what the problem with the Democrats is: they just don't fight dirty like the Republicans do.
The Cincinnati Enquirer reports:
Man oh man, I've been looking forward to this moment.
Kathryn Jean Lopez interviews Jay Cost about today's election:
Democrats currently have a 77-seat advantage in the House: 255 Democrats to 178 Republicans (there are 2 vacancies). Incumbency has its advantages, even in a year like this, so it would be amazing for the two parties to trade positions in just one cycle. But it's entirely plausible that voters will…
Much is unknown about this election. But with Republicans poised to make historic gains based on deep unrest about the policies of Barack Obama and other Democrats, one thing is certain: There will be lots of chin-stroking about the anger and hate on the right.
Fred Barnes, in the Wall Street Journal, on today's election:
Democrats face a rough election day. There’s almost no chance they’ll keep control of the House. And they could lose the Senate as well, not to mention governors’ seats. My prediction is Republican pickups of 60 House, 10 Senate, and eight governor’s seats.
Is the pressure getting to Ron Kind? Last week, the Democratic congressman who holds Wisconsin's third congressional district got a little testy and refused to shake the hand of his opponent Dan Kapanke following a debate. Kind was upset that Kapanke's campaign was pushing the story that two local…
Via Marc Ambinder, Obama kinda sorta walks back the "enemies" part of his "punish our enemies" line from last week (not the "punish" part, mind you):
An amusing video via Ben Smith:
Rasmussen shows the GOP wave cresting right about now:
A reminder from Gallup that the terms 'independent' and 'moderate' are not interchangeable: [img nocaption float="center" width="640" height="355" render="<%photoRenderType%>"]12226[/img]
Bill Kristol, with Juan Williams, Mara Liasson and Brit Hume, on Fox News Sunday talking about tomorrow's elections:
Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, has released its final batch of Senate polls. The Republican has a one to seven point lead in the following states:
Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, has released its final batch of Senate polls. The Republican has one to five point lead in the following states:
David Freddoso, from our cousin publication the Washington Examiner, has a very useful rundown for tomorrow's election:
Scott Rasmussen writes in the Wall Street Journal:
The original sin of President Obama and Democrats was their belief in the theory that smashing victories by their party in the 2006 and 2008 elections represented a political realignment that would leave them in power in Washington for decades to come.
The final Gallup poll shows that likely voters prefer Republicans to Democrats by a 55% to 40% margin on the congressional ballot. Jay Cost will have more on this in the morning, but suffice it to say that Gallup's final number translates to enormous gains for Republicans. From Gallup: "Taking…
Congressional Democrats' pro-Obamacare votes "could prove to be their political death," the Hill writes.
Resurgent Republic released this pre-election memo on Friday that should top your weekend reading list. The analysis, authored by three top GOP strategists and Resurgent Republic leaders -- Ed Gillespie, Whit Ayers and Leslie Sanchez – argues that Obama and the Democrats’ slide among independent…
ABC's Jonathan Karl documents how Democratic attack ads recently have been nothing about the policy and all about the personal. Take, for instance, this snippet about a House race in Kentucky:
A Monmouth poll from two weeks ago showed O'Donnell trailing Coons, 38% to 57%. But a new Monmouth poll, released today, shows Christine O'Donnell trailing Chris Coons by just 10 points, 41% to 51%. The poll finds that O'Donnell is now in the lead with independent voters--47% to 42%. Democrats are…
With recent polling consistently showing the GOP nominee, Mark Kirk, leading mob banker Alexi Giannoulias in the Illinois Senate race, the Democrats are pulling out all the stops to try and steal any Republican advantage.
The Cook Political Report yesterday released 15 new House race rating changes (subscription required), including shifting the race in Virginia between Democratic incumbent Gerry Connolly and Republican Keith Fimian to a toss up. Additionally, Georgia Blue Dog Democrat Jim Marshall's race against…
On two occasions over the past week, former president Bill Clinton attempted to persuade Democratic congressman Kendrick Meek to drop out of the Florida Senate race and endorse Republican-turned-Independent Florida governor Charlie Crist in the three-way contest. Clinton, who had campaigned for…
A new Hays Research poll of the Alaska Senate race showing Joe Miller in third place is getting a lot of attention, but there actually hasn't been a lot of movement in this particular poll. Miller is exactly where he was a week ago, according to Hays:
On Monday, Daniel Bice of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that two doctors had offered sworn affidavits accusing Wisconsin Democrat Ron Kind's staff of charging them money in order to meet to discuss legislation:
In the midst of a deluge of correspondence from learned readers correcting, amplifying and elaborating on my little post yesterday comparing the passage of Obamacare, next week’s elections, and November 2012 to Borodino, Leipzig, and Waterloo (I’m learning a lot about the historiographic…
A close look at the Senate polls suggests that they are likely understating the probability of Republican victories. Most seem to be under-sampling either Republicans, independents, or both. As a result, in 10 of 12 key Senate races, the Republican candidate’s likelihood of winning appears to be…
1. Senate Outlook. Last week I wrote that the Senate outlook was still cloudy. This week it has cleared up a bit, as expected. Mixed results for the Grand Old Party. The good news is that the Republican position in Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Nevada has firmed up a bit.
The Washington Post reports:
A new batch of polls by CNN shows similar results to what other pollsters are finding (Republicans listed first):
Ben Smith reports:
This report suggests that Barbara Boxer's latest tactic -- asking teachers to volunteer their students for her campaign -- might be illegal:
In an article entitled, "Health care vote-switchers an endangered species," the Washington Post writes:
Politico's Jeanne Cummings reports:
I was reminded, reading Fred Bauer's interesting post, that on the day after Obamacare passed, I'd compared President Obama's legislative success to Napoleon's catastrophic victory at Borodino.
The Cook Political Report has updated seven House races, moving all seven "Solid Democrat" races to "Likely Democrat." The list includes Frank Pallone of New Jersey, David Price of North Carolina, Peter DeFazio of Oregon, Jim Cooper of Tennessee, Lloyd Doggett of Texas, John Tierney of…
Jimmy Vielkind reports:
A new SurveyUSA poll shows Democrat Jim Costa trailing Republican Andy Vidak by 10 points, 42% to 52%. Obama won the Fresno-based district with 60% of the vote in 2008, and Cook Political Report has the race rated "Leans Democrat."
Should we bomb Iran to keep it from getting nuclear weapons? A new study by Eytan Gilboa shows that there has been a pronounced shift in public opinion toward an affirmative answer. It reports that “poll results indicate much more public determination to stop Iran than has been evidenced in…
CNN reports:
After former California Democratic governor (and 2010 gubernatorial candidate) Jerry Brown lost the 1992 presidential primary, he was a bit candid about his campaign promises on a CNN program:
When Republican congressman Christopher Shays of Connecticut lost his reelection bid in 2008, he left office as the last of the New England House Republicans. The New York Times has a story about Republican Dan Debicella and Democratic incumbent Jim Himes, who replaced Shays in the Fourth…
Bill Kristol, with Juan Williams, Nina Easton, and Brit Hume, on yesterday's Fox News Sunday's "Panel Plus":
In Pennsylvania, the Morning Call/Muhlenberg daily tracking poll gave Republicans quite a scare last week when it showed Joe Sestak leading Pat Toomey 44% to 41%, but now, following the debates, the same poll shows Toomey back on top 47% to 42%. In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Toomey…
The Duluth News Tribune backs Republican Chip Cravaack over 18-term Democrat Jim Oberstar:
Might voters replace another New England Kennedy with a Republican? A new poll, commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee and conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, shows that Rhode Island’s First Congressional District is in play, with Republican state representative John…
This Newsweek poll released over the weekend found some surprisingly good news for Democrats. But it probably doesn’t mean much for President Obama and his party: the sample includes too many Democrats, at least based on a lot of other recent polls.
Jeff Anderson writes in the New York Post:
1. Are State Polls Underestimating Republican Strength? Yes, says Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics. He writes:
In September, Big Government first reported that Illinois Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias may have dodged the Greek military service requirement when he lived and worked in Greece in the late 1990s:
Newsweek has just released a likely-voter poll showing Democrats leading by 3 points (48 to 45 percent) on the generic congressional ballot. The same poll shows that likely voters approve of President Obama's performance by a 14-point margin (54 to 40 percent). Since Rasmussen shows Obama with…
The recently released AP-GfK poll, which shows Republicans leading by 7 points (50 to 43 percent) on the generic congressional ballot, asks voters whether they "approve" or "disapprove" of "the way Barack Obama is handling" various issues. To say the least, the results aren't good for the Obama…
Republican Pat Toomey continues to lead Democrat Joe Sestak by 4 points in Pennsylvania, according to the latest Rasmussen poll of likely voters. I've written that the gap in the Pennsylvania Senate race is likely bigger than that which has been indicated by three recent polls, each of which…
Former New York City mayor Ed Koch, along with Dan Senor, has written a letter slamming Congressman Maurice Hinchey of New York’s 22nd Congressional District for his anti-Israel views. In the letter, Koch and Senor endorse Republican George Phillips. Here's the full text of the bipartisan gesture:
Ben Smith reports:
This past spring, a conservative blogger asked Democratic congressman Phil Hare at a townhall meeting in Quincy, Illinois about the constitutionality of the controversial health care legislation. “I don’t worry about the Constitution on this, to be honest,” Hare said.
With eleven days left in the election, a new poll, commissioned by Carly Fiorina’s campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, shows that the Republican candidate for Senate from California has a fighting chance. The race, between Fiorina and Democratic incumbent senator Barbara…
The Boston Herald reports:
Former seven-term congressman Steve Chabot is poised to represent Ohio’s first district again after his 2008 loss to Democrat Steve Driehaus. Chabot’s comfortable lead in the polls reflects the district’s disgust with fiscal irresponsibility and the federal government’s sharp left turn.
As Bill Kristol previously noted, voters in Ohio's Tenth Congressional District just might vote out long-time Democratic congressman Dennis Kucinich. It's close: Kucinich's Republican challenger, Peter Corrigan, is behind by only 4 points, well within the margin of error in the latest poll.
1. The House. The following chart reviews the independent vote in the polls in the RealClearPolitics average of the generic ballot:
The Washington Examiner reports that Virginia congressman Jim Moran (VA-8) was videotaped speaking at an October 6th meeting of the Arlington County Democratic Committee, saying: "What [Republicans] do is find candidates, usually stealth candidates, that haven't been in office, haven't served or…
A new poll from Sunshine State News shows Lt. Col. Allen West leading incumbent congressman Ron Klein:
On Tuesday, THE WEEKLY STANDARD first reported that an activist in Illinois tied to Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias was working to recruit veterans to film a television ad attacking Senate candidate and 21-year Navy Reserve veteran Mark Kirk.
West Virginia's Democratic governor and Senate candidate Joe Manchin attended a $1,000 to $5,000 a head fundraiser in Washington, D.C. today and apparently* slipped out the back door without taking questions from the press.
The Allentown Morning Call reports:
Increasingly, House Democrats from moderate districts are calling on the enormously unpopular Nancy Pelosi not to run for speaker next year. The latest comes from Jason Altmire:
During the Pennsylvania Senate debate on Wednesday night, Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak each tried to paint the other as too extreme to represent the Keystone state. Both candidates came well-armed with their talking points and were fairly well-matched rhetorically. Toomey was…
Around the 1964 presidential election--back when "Mad Man" Don Draper was still smoking Camels--men and women began to gradually diverge in their political views and behavior. We call this the “gender gap.”
David Axelrod, the president's chief spin master:
Colorado Democratic congressman Ed Perlmutter slapped back at his GOP challenger during a televised debate on Sunday—literally.
Politico reports:
Jon Ward reports at the Daily Caller:
Ben Smith reports: "The Emergency Committee for Israel, which has been pounding away at Democratic candidates -- notably Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania -- has launched a new independent expenditure PAC that can solicit unlimited contributions and and play even more directly in elections."
At 8 a.m. this morning, more than 1,800 people showed up for a congressional debate in Duluth, Minnesota between 18-term Democrat Jim Oberstar and his Republican opponent Chip Cravaack, a former Navy pilot and Northwest Airlines pilot. Cravaack said his first priority would be scrapping Obamacare,…
Just in case you didn’t think the Illinois Senate race could sink any lower, THE WEEKLY STANDARD has learned that Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is planning to launch a final ad campaign featuring a “veteran” to attack Mark Kirk’s service record.
Governor Joe Manchin, who trails Republican John Raese by 3 points in Rasmussen's latest poll on the West Virginia Senate race (the Real Clear Politics average has Manchin slightly ahead on the basis of two Democratic polls), is now running a pro-Obamacare ad:
In Massachusetts’s Tenth Congressional District, the first poll for the race to replace retiring Democrat Bill Delahunt has finally been conducted. Republican Jeff Perry is in a dead heat with Democrat Bill Keating, the Cape Cod Times reports:
Bill Kristol, Charles Krauthammer and Juan Williams talk about the Kentucky, Illinois, Colorado and Nevada Senate races on Fox News's Special Report:
Another week, another outlying Gallup generic ballot result. Gallup finds the Republicans with either an 11- or 17-point lead, depending upon the likely voter screen. Compare that to a Republican advantage of a little under 7 points in the RealClearPolitics average.
The liberal host of MSNBC's "Hardball" eviscerates Kentucky Democratic Senate candidate Jack Conway on national television:
Blackfive reports that Richard Eubank, commander-in-chief of Veterans of Foreign Wars, has announced a proposal to dissolve VFW’s political action committee to quiet outcry over some of the PAC's endorsements of liberal, anti-war Democrats over Republicans, many of whom are actual foreign war…
Even the monthly Kaiser Health Tracking poll, an outlier poll that has consistently shown far greater support for Obamacare than one could glean from almost anywhere else – for example, the Kaiser poll in July maintained that only 35 percent of Americans opposed Obamacare – is now showing big…
From the Daily Caller's Alex Pappas:
New York, New York
THE WEEKLY STANDARD has obtained the results of a private poll conducted last night in Ohio-10, the Cleveland-area district held for seven terms by Democrat Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich has been widely viewed as safe—even though he fell short of 60 percent of the vote in 2008, and the district has a…
Is Barney Frank worried about whether he'll be reelected to the House? Maybe, but it's pretty certain that Frank's partner, James Ready, is rattled.
Fred Barnes writes in today's Wall Street Journal:
1. Obama’s Dime Store Sociology. This recent story from Politico caught my attention.
Strongly indicating just how well ObamaCare is resonating with the public as we approach the midterm elections, Politico reports that, so far in October, advertising in opposition to ObamaCare and/or in support of repeal has outpaced advertising in support of ObamaCare by a margin of "20-to-1." …
Steve Hayes in today's Wall Street Journal:
We’re a little more than two weeks out from the election, and now is a good time to check in with electoral prognosticators to see what they think is going to happen.
Recently uncovered documents reveal that Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor Brian Colón has refused to make payments on a condo that he owns in Florida. A representative of the Sunrise Lakes Condominium Apartments association in Sunrise, Florida claims that Colón has refused to pay his…
Remember those signs that 18-term incumbent Jim Oberstar of Minnesota might be in trouble?
Last week’s anemic jobs report came as a sobering reminder that America’s economic malaise shows little sign of slowing. Overall non-farm payrolls shrunk by 95,000 in September, while private sector hiring decelerated for the third consecutive month. High unemployment is now an acute national…
Why, oh why, is the Obama administration spending so much time three weeks before the election attacking the Chamber of Commerce? There are different theories.
Harvard, Mass.
Steve Hayes and TWS contributing editor Charles Krauthammer last night on Fox News's Special Report:
John McCormack highlights three Wisconsin House races that are ripe for a Democrat-to-Republican flip. In WI-08, Republican Reid Ribble is challenging Democrat Steve Kagen, a doctor whose most notable moment in Washington came when he seems to have invented a confrontation in a White House bathroom…
Ever wonder why Republican challenger Ken Buck can't open up more of a lead against Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado? Bennet, the Democratic incumbent, was not elected by the people (he was appointed) and yet brazenly thought he could get away with voting for Obamacare in a GOP-leaning (if only…
The four causes of what’s likely to be a landslide defeat for Democrats in the midterm election are now locked in place. All that’s left for Democrats in the final three weeks of the campaign is to trash Republicans, stir their base to vote, and pray.
A new batch of polls out today shows most Senate races holding steady, with one possible exception. Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, shows West Virginia governor and Democratic Senate candidate Joe Manchin leading Republican John Raese by 3 points (48% to 45%), just a couple weeks after…
Fall River, Mass.
In a debate yesterday in Michigan, the Republican, the independent, and the Green Party candidate all agreed that Obamacare must go. While the candidates had different thoughts about what Obamacare should be replaced with, they all agreed that it should be repealed, leaving only Democratic…
I don’t actually have proof that John Podesta’s Center for American Progress is funded by foreign interests and corporations, but does anyone have proof that it isn’t? This is the new standard set by the Obama administration for organizations engaged in political activity it dislikes – guilty until…
Democrats currently hold five of Wisconsin's eight House seats, but that probably won't last for long. Last week, the Cook Political Report moved WI-08, which encompasses Green Bay, from "toss-up" to "leans Republican." In 2006, Democrat Steve Kagan won the open Republican district, which swung…
On the Thursday after Memorial Day, 1933, J. Pierpont Morgan Jr. sat at the witness table awaiting the resumption of a hearing by the Senate Banking Committee investigating the practices of New York investment banks. Suddenly, a publicist with the Ringling Brothers circus thrust a German-born dwarf…
If all goes well for Republicans in the midterm elections, they’ll capture the House and maybe the Senate, having revealed few specifics of what they might do in the next Congress. This makes sense. It’s the Chris Christie strategy.
The most telling line of today’s Meet the Press debate between Illinois Republican congressman Mark Kirk and Democratic state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias came from the Democrat, who proclaimed: "I didn't know the extent of their activity." The line was in reference to the loans to well-known…
James Taranto profiles Sean Bielat, the congressional candidate in Massachusetts who is seeking to defeat Barney Frank in November's election:
The Detroit Free Press reports:
Based upon how residents of each congressional district voted in the past three presidential elections, House Democrats currently hold 68 Republican-leaning seats. Of the 68 Democrats holding these seats, 59 are running for reelection: 31 voted for Obamacare, 28 of these members of Congress voted…
Democratic representative Steve Driehaus has filed a complaint with the Ohio Elections Commission against the pro-life Susan B. Anthony List to stop the group from putting up four billboards claiming that Driehaus voted for taxpayer-funding of abortion (see the ad here).
The Hill writes, "A majority of voters in key battleground districts favor repeal of the legislative overhaul Congress passed this year." A newly released survey that The Hill conducted of nearly 5,000 likely voters in twelve hotly contested congressional districts finds that 56 percent, including…
A recent high-profile ad war in the New Mexico gubernatorial election, which has taken place on television screens across the state, involves GOP nominee and Doña Ana County district attorney Susana Martinez, Democratic nominee and Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, and a teacher named Freda…
CQ's Tricia Miller reports on the latest dust-up in the bitter race to replace Bart Stupak:
Politico reports:
1. Obama’s Job Approval in Comparative Perspective. A key factor in the congressional midterm is the standing of the president. Even though he is not on the ballot, the president is seen as the leader of the government and a political party, and candidates from that party are inevitably viewed in…
Earl Pomeroy (D., N.D.), who stubbornly cast not one but two votes in favor of Obamacare in a state that has favored GOP presidential candidates by an average of 21 percentage points in the past three elections, is now running an ad in which he brazenly tries to convince his constituents that he…
It’s one month until Election Day and Florida governor Charlie Crist is desperate. When Crist launched his campaign more than a year ago he was leading conservative Marco Rubio by more than 30 points. Now, after having opted to run as an independent to avoid a humiliating defeat in the Republican…
Normally, I use this space to run down various news items related to the campaign, but today I am going to deviate from that practice to offer a snapshot of where I think the midterm battle stands.
Youngstown, Ohio
The conventional wisdom in the political community is that Republicans will probably win the House in the midterm election but fall short of capturing the Senate. Maybe, but Republicans have at least a 50-50 shot at taking the Senate, too.
1. Obama’s Best Pick. Yesterday, Gallup found that Barack Obama has just a 15-point lead over Hillary Clinton for the 2012 Democratic nomination, with 10 percent undecided. Yikes. Gallup accurately notes:
1. CNN/Time Oversamples Democrats in California? Yesterday evening, the CNN/Time poll of the California Senate race found Barbara Boxer up nine points among likely voters over Carly Fiorina.
Pennsylvania Senate candidate Joe Sestak has come under fire for his record on Israel. So now he's trying to embellish his record. Ben Smith reports:
What makes retired Army colonel and Iraq war veteran Patrick Murray believe he can win over the voters of Virginia’s Eighth Congressional District? After all, these are the same voters who have sent incumbent Democrat Jim Moran to Congress ten times before.
1. Does Linda McMahon Stand a Chance in Connecticut? Rasmussen and Quinnipiac both find the Republican nominee for Senate in Connecticut, Linda McMahon, well within striking distance of Democrat Richard Blumenthal. Can she pull this off, or is this a dead cat bounce?
Illinois Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias doesn’t have many accomplishments he can run on. His family bank, where he worked as a vice president and a senior loan officer, was taken over by the FDIC in April, costing the government $394.3 million. The Bright Start College Savings…
Likely independent voters favor repeal by a 27-point margin -- 60 to 33 percent -- according to the latest Rasmussen poll. Republicans, especially those running against one of the 34 Democrats who in March voted against Obamacare but who, six months later, now support "fixing" rather than repealing…
CNN released a new survey on Friday that found President Obama’s approval rating hit a new all time low. The network points to the listless economy and ongoing wars as the principal reasons for the public’s dissatisfaction with the White House:
1. Obama's Falling Numbers. Barack Obama’s job approval numbers reached a new low over the weekend in the RealClearPolitics average. Generally, I’ve seen two types of explanations for the president's decline. One is a structural account that asserts that the president is largely a prisoner of…
When it comes to federal lobbyists, Illinois Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias says that “he won’t take their money and he won’t vote their way.”
Ramesh Ponnuru on the Democrats' decision to punt on tax cuts:
Fred Barnes in today's Wall Street Journal:
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