Richelieu on Handguns
June 26, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
The McCain campaign should be careful how they handle the Court's decision on handguns. While the Second Amendment in general is a winning GOP issue, the handgun aspects of it are more problematic with swing voters. In the end, this election will be decided by white females and ticket-splitting…
Richelieu: Tim Russert, RIP
June 14, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
I was too shocked and too sad yesterday to post anything about my friend Tim Russert's sad passing, but I'll try today. One thing that made Tim so special was that, while he was tough and knowing about politics, he was never cynical. He had heroes in his political life and saw politics as an…
Richelieu: La Vida Obama
May 14, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Your good Cardinal has done some happy work among the good people of Puerto Rico, so I cannot help but opine a little on all this Hillary talk about her coming landslide in the sunny Commonwealth. Puerto Rican politics are very organizational and somewhat boss-oriented. Political bosses firmly…
Richelieu: A Nothing-Burger in West Virginia
May 14, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Somewhere in an Iraqi prison, Saddam's famous "up is down" spin king Tariq Aziz is watching HRC's West Virginia "victory" speech with considerable professional respect and saying, "Not bad." This is becoming silly. The Clintons have always seen the truth as a sort of Silly Putty, something easily…
Richelieu: Toast
May 7, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
She knows it. You could tell during her speech. As she slogged gamely through the new sound-bites somebody gave her, a final concession speech kept breaking through. She became animated when thanking family and volunteers, then robotic and hollow as she promised to fight on. But she knows the score…
Richelieu: Predictions
May 5, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Your diligent Cardinal got plenty of email from the Faithful regarding the correct name for the freedom loving citizens of Guam. It's "Guamanian." Though I still prefer the hipper "Guammie." On the topic of citizen monikers, I am reminded of when the noble phrase "Michigander" for the good people…
Richelieu: The Funhouse Mirror
May 4, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Hyperventilated spin often creates a alternative reality that is both specious and still formidable. The hubbub over the Louisiana special election is a perfect example. The NRCC tries the usual -- and seldom very effective -- tactic of trying to tie the formidable local Democrat candidate to a…
Richelieu: Damage Assessment
May 1, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
A few thoughts on the good Rev. Wright. First, what fun this is. Nothing like a candidate's crank associate going off on an egocentric rant in front of the media to spice up a political campaign. Though I'm not sure it will be as ultimately bad for Obama as it now appears since he got the excuse he…
Richelieu: Cease Fire
April 29, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
One of the low points in the often keel-scraping Mitt Romney for President campaign was the day when some junior staffer had the none too bright idea of signing poor Romney up for a lifetime membership in the National Rifle Association. Romney, who previously had done most of his big game hunting…
Richelieu: Media Pollster, Heal Thyself
April 28, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Lots of babble in the press and among the cable TV gasbags about the network exit polling being off in Pennsylvania due to race. This is worth some discussion over the entire pagan's Cathedral of media polling. First, the media's obsession with polls is a big weakness in modern political coverage.…
(Bumped) Richelieu: The Perfect Storm
April 25, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Winning Pennsylvania is the worst thing that could have happened to Hillary Clinton. Had she lost, her now ragtag campaign would have been mercifully put out of its long misery. Barack Obama alone would be accountable for his general election performance. Instead, Clinton won Pennsylvania's primary…
Richelieu: And the Big Winner in PA...McCain
April 23, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
A few thoughts in the wake of Pennsylvania. 1) Another reminder that demographics are often far stronger than the campaigns the press obsess over. Despite Obama's huge spending muscle and campaign firepower advantage, PA still looks like Ohio and voted like Ohio. Downscale whites gave a 10 point…
Richelieu: Lucky McCain
April 17, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Hillary zings, Obama zaps. After watching this debate all I can think is that John McCain is the luckiest man in America. My take: Hillary probably made some Super-delegates a little more worried about Obama in the general. But to what end? Still hard to see how she ultimately prevails, and if she…
Richelieu: Why Rice Will Not Be VP
April 7, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
This Condi for Veep hype is political madness. Whatever Condi's impressive attributes, picking her for VP would be a lunatic move: 1) It is the perfect way to make the general election an endless re-hash of the Bush Teams many mistakes in Iraq. By picking her McCain would endorse those epic…
Richelieu: Penn Out
April 7, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
I won't kick Mark Penn now that he's down. I kicked him months ago for running what I think was a near hapless strategy and I've been a fierce critic of the Clinton campaign since the beginning. But for all Penn's mistakes and fumbles and difficulties there are two things worth remembering. First,…
Richelieu: Does McCain Have a Strategy?
March 28, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
McCain's first general election spot is on the air. Maybe I'm missing something, but it looks and feels and sounds much more like a primary spot to me. I think McCain's amazing story should be a key part of his general election message. But if that is the opening move -- and I can make good…
Richelieu: Hillary's Plan B
March 26, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
If 48 months is a sensible amount of time for a car lease, than why not for a Plan B to win the White House? Currently Hillary Clinton's plan is to win PA, score an upset win in NC, win IN and hope that this late surge, along with more bad press for Obama, causes a huge number of super delegates to…
Richelieu: Obama-McCain Race Takes Shape
March 22, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Happy Easter. Some thoughts on the Presidential race: 1) Obama is 90 percent likely to be the Democratic nominee, although the press seem to have continuing trouble with basic arithmetic and thereby doubt this. It's important to note that many of the superdelegates are DNC members which means many…
Richelieu: "Go Hillary, Go!"
March 12, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Das Hillary Apparat is claiming that she would be a stronger general election nominee as she has done better in the big state primaries. It is a specious argument. Primary results in a given state do not really have much to do with general election results in that state. In fact, a private pollster…
Richelieu on "George Fox"
March 11, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Michael Walsh, one of your Cardinal's Irish pals and author of a fun novel about NYC mob legend Owney Madden called And All the Saints, offers up some fun detail on the pseudonym "George Fox." Client number 9 was not alone in using that moniker when slipping into hotels. Madden's partner, George…
The Last Hurrah...
March 5, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
There is great happiness in Clinton world this morning. Giddy staffers are pinging bloggers to grab credit for the 3am ad that supposedly stopped a surging Obama in Texas. Indeed, the hangman's noose has been postponed. But the truth of the matter is that for Hillary Clinton the confetti was flying…
Scary Monster
March 3, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Per the post earlier today about McCain's surprisingly strong recent numbers in national polls vis-Ã -vis Obama, your Cardinal says: don't believe it. Those numbers will change. If, as I suspect, Obama prevails in both states tomorrow -- or even in just Texas and Vermont -- and HRC does indeed…
Ah Romance . . .
February 21, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
A few thoughts from your Cardinal on Le Affair McCain. . . 1.) A 71 year old man . . . A 40 year old slinky blonde. I'm French. What's the big deal? 2.) McCain should thank the New York Times. The age issue is now gone. 3.) No allegation of corruption, no favors, both sides deny an affair. Why is…
The End of an Era . . .
February 20, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Wow. A tough and iron-fisted Generalissimo of the totalitarian Left left the world stage yesterday . . . but enough about Hillary Clinton. Sorry, couldn't resist an obvious Castro/HRC joke. Back in Wisconsin, though, Hillary's problem is as serious as Fidel's. This Wisconsin loss means that Obama's…
Richelieu: Wisconsin Upset for HRC?
February 17, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Since this has been such a big year for political surprises and Crazy Ivan style last minute twists and turns, your Cardinal would be remiss in not noting the significant possibility of a Hillary Clinton upset win in Tuesday's Wisconsin primary. Now don't get me wrong. I've been predicting Obama…
Richelieu: A Helluva Ticket
February 14, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Romney signs on. It would be a helluva ticket.
Richelieu: A Helluva Ticket
February 14, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Romney signs on. It would be a helluva ticket.
Richelieu: The Huckabee Tab
February 13, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
There is one small but influential group of GOP political insiders who are praying for Mike Huckabee to continue his increasingly Quixotic campaign for the Republican nomination: voter mail and list consultants. Huckabee is doing a great job of showing state-by-state exactly where the evangelical…
Richelieu: The Huckabee Tab
February 13, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
There is one small but influential group of GOP political insiders who are praying for Mike Huckabee to continue his increasingly Quixotic campaign for the Republican nomination: voter mail and list consultants. Huckabee is doing a great job of showing state-by-state exactly where the evangelical…
Richelieu: The Tipping Point
February 13, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
It'll never be the same again for the Hillary Clinton campaign. She is unlikely to recover. Everything has a tipping point, and in the Democratic race for president the ten day sweep that Barack Obama started on Saturday and is very likely to finish next Tuesday in Wisconsin is the final body blow…
Richelieu: The Tipping Point
February 13, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
It'll never be the same again for the Hillary Clinton campaign. She is unlikely to recover. Everything has a tipping point, and in the Democratic race for president the ten day sweep that Barack Obama started on Saturday and is very likely to finish next Tuesday in Wisconsin is the final body blow…
Richelieu: A Wing and a Prayer
February 11, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Clinton's very able press-meister Howard Wolfson and her rather-less-able chief strategist Mark Penn held a media conference call today to explain why Hillary Clinton is best able to beat John McCain in November. You can listen to this interesting call here. Penn's basic pitch is: McCain will run…
Richelieu: A Wing and a Prayer
February 11, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Clinton's very able press-meister Howard Wolfson and her rather-less-able chief strategist Mark Penn held a media conference call today to explain why Hillary Clinton is best able to beat John McCain in November. You can listen to this interesting call here. Penn's basic pitch is: McCain will run…
Richelieu: Hell Week
February 11, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
It's going to be a long week for Das Clinton Apparat. Obama wins LA, NE, and WA state on Saturday and Maine on Sunday. And he's favored to do well on Tuesday in DC, MD, and VA. He'll end the week with a solid delegate lead, at least in pledged delegates. This likely Obama sweep, plus a fundraising…
Richelieu: Hell Week
February 11, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
It's going to be a long week for Das Clinton Apparat. Obama wins LA, NE, and WA state on Saturday and Maine on Sunday. And he's favored to do well on Tuesday in DC, MD, and VA. He'll end the week with a solid delegate lead, at least in pledged delegates. This likely Obama sweep, plus a fundraising…
Richelieu: Give Huck the Hook
February 8, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
The Huck should take a lesson from Mitt Romney's classy performance yesterday and fold up his medicine show. Romney did a lot today to show the country and the party the classy and principled Mitt Romney that his friends have known for years. (One tribute to the guy is that everybody who works for…
Richelieu: Give Huck the Hook
February 8, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
The Huck should take a lesson from Mitt Romney's classy performance yesterday and fold up his medicine show. Romney did a lot today to show the country and the party the classy and principled Mitt Romney that his friends have known for years. (One tribute to the guy is that everybody who works for…
Richelieu: The Aftermath, Democratic Edition
February 6, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Obama ties Clinton in delegates and wins more states on the date when she had originally hoped to put the race away. That's an overall win for Obama. But Hillary's big victory in California made it no sweep, and Das Hillary Apparat lurches on to fight another day. The next wave of contests in DC,…
Richelieu: The Aftermath, Democratic Edition
February 6, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Obama ties Clinton in delegates and wins more states on the date when she had originally hoped to put the race away. That's an overall win for Obama. But Hillary's big victory in California made it no sweep, and Das Hillary Apparat lurches on to fight another day. The next wave of contests in DC,…
Richelieu: The Aftermath, GOP Edition
February 6, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
The anti-McCainiacs are split between Romney and Huckabee, with neither challenger raising enough steam to stop McCain. Huckabee wins some impressive victories, but only in his home region and only in a three-way dynamic. Despite all the media excitement, the Happy Huck is having what Wall Street's…
Richelieu: The Aftermath, GOP Edition
February 6, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
The anti-McCainiacs are split between Romney and Huckabee, with neither challenger raising enough steam to stop McCain. Huckabee wins some impressive victories, but only in his home region and only in a three-way dynamic. Despite all the media excitement, the Happy Huck is having what Wall Street's…
Richelieu: Politics in West Virginia
February 5, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
I'm shocked, shocked to see Politics in West Virginia! Romney manager Beth Myers puts out this howler on Huckabee's win today in West VA: "Unfortunately, this is what Senator McCain's inside Washington ways look like: he cut a backroom deal with the tax-and-spend candidate he thought could best…
Richelieu: Politics in West Virginia
February 5, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
I'm shocked, shocked to see Politics in West Virginia! Romney manager Beth Myers puts out this howler on Huckabee's win today in West VA: "Unfortunately, this is what Senator McCain's inside Washington ways look like: he cut a backroom deal with the tax-and-spend candidate he thought could best…
Richelieu: Random Thoughts on the Passing Scene
February 4, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Some random thoughts, with apologies to Larry King and USA Today, on the eve of tomorrow's Ultimate Tuesday. ... Obama is moving up and up, ever since South Carolina and Teddy K. He is now tied in most national polls. If he wins New Jersey in Hillary's backyard, wins the popular vote in CA, and…
Richelieu: Random Thoughts on the Passing Scene
February 4, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Some random thoughts, with apologies to Larry King and USA Today, on the eve of tomorrow's Ultimate Tuesday. ... Obama is moving up and up, ever since South Carolina and Teddy K. He is now tied in most national polls. If he wins New Jersey in Hillary's backyard, wins the popular vote in CA, and…
Richelieu: Democrats Pretend to Like Each Other
February 1, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Bit of a nothing-burger at the Democrat debate. Your Cardinal is amazed at how skilled the Democrats are at pretending they like each other. The minute the red cue light on the camera goes dark both sides eagerly return to trying to murder the other. At least the Republicans, clumsier in style and…
Richelieu: Democrats Pretend to Like Each Other
February 1, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Bit of a nothing-burger at the Democrat debate. Your Cardinal is amazed at how skilled the Democrats are at pretending they like each other. The minute the red cue light on the camera goes dark both sides eagerly return to trying to murder the other. At least the Republicans, clumsier in style and…
Richelieu: Obama Surges
February 1, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Newsflash. Private non-candidate polling in CA shows tie race between Obama and Clinton in Tuesday's primary. Surge for Obama. The plot thickens...
Richelieu: Obama Surges
February 1, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Newsflash. Private non-candidate polling in CA shows tie race between Obama and Clinton in Tuesday's primary. Surge for Obama. The plot thickens...
Richelieu: Newsflash from Romney HQ
January 31, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
"Today, Oklahoma Republican National Committeewoman Bunny Chambers announced her endorsement of Governor Mitt Romney." Poor Mitt. This is getting very sad.
Richelieu: Newsflash from Romney HQ
January 31, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
"Today, Oklahoma Republican National Committeewoman Bunny Chambers announced her endorsement of Governor Mitt Romney." Poor Mitt. This is getting very sad.
Richelieu: Florida Rumors!
January 29, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Operatives hate election day. Unless you have a role in managing GOTV, there is nothing to do but sit and wait and worry. And call around to gossip about last minute news and, especially, polling rumors. I figure the loyal readers of the Campaign Standard deserve to live the life of a campaign…
Richelieu: Florida Rumors!
January 29, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Operatives hate election day. Unless you have a role in managing GOTV, there is nothing to do but sit and wait and worry. And call around to gossip about last minute news and, especially, polling rumors. I figure the loyal readers of the Campaign Standard deserve to live the life of a campaign…
Richelieu: Game Time in Florida
January 28, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
A busy final Monday in the Sunshine state. McCain shivs Romney with a last minute attack ad. Romney swings the ugly stick back at "liberal" McCain in the last media cycle. Polls show some late movement to McCain off the Crist endorsement. It's close. McCain seems to have some Crist momentum, but…
Richelieu: Game Time in Florida
January 28, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
A busy final Monday in the Sunshine state. McCain shivs Romney with a last minute attack ad. Romney swings the ugly stick back at "liberal" McCain in the last media cycle. Polls show some late movement to McCain off the Crist endorsement. It's close. McCain seems to have some Crist momentum, but…
Richelieu: Live by Bill Clinton, Perish by Bill Clinton ...
January 28, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Delicious irony in this new Clinton crack-up. First Hillary brilliantly creates a patina of "experience" around her candidacy based partially on solid work in the Senate, but mostly on having served eight years as somebody else's First Lady; an unelected position without specified authority. But…
Richelieu: Live by Bill Clinton, Perish by Bill Clinton ...
January 28, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Delicious irony in this new Clinton crack-up. First Hillary brilliantly creates a patina of "experience" around her candidacy based partially on solid work in the Senate, but mostly on having served eight years as somebody else's First Lady; an unelected position without specified authority. But…
Richelieu: Spinning South Carolina
January 26, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Tonight's results from South Carolina will bring forth the fun house mirror that is modern media spin. Das Hillary Apparat will attempt to pin a racial subtext on Obama no matter what the result. If he wins big, it will be about "record" black turnout. If he wins small, it will be that his appeal…
Richelieu: Spinning South Carolina
January 26, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Tonight's results from South Carolina will bring forth the fun house mirror that is modern media spin. Das Hillary Apparat will attempt to pin a racial subtext on Obama no matter what the result. If he wins big, it will be about "record" black turnout. If he wins small, it will be that his appeal…
Richelieu: Florida
January 24, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Florida is looking tight on the GOP side. Romney is now 100 percent on his economy message, which has promise. McCain, Inc. cut a new spot to cover McCain's flank on the economy; a smart move and done just in time. McCain appears to have respectable TV buys in key I-4 markets: Tampa and Orlando.…
Richelieu: Florida
January 24, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Florida is looking tight on the GOP side. Romney is now 100 percent on his economy message, which has promise. McCain, Inc. cut a new spot to cover McCain's flank on the economy; a smart move and done just in time. McCain appears to have respectable TV buys in key I-4 markets: Tampa and Orlando.…
Richelieu: The Myth of Strategy
January 20, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Looking back at the last 17 days of the primary season, it occurs to your Cardinal that despite all the talk to the contrary, every major candidate has exactly the same strategy, which is to say no real strategy at all. Each has tried to win every big primary, and failing that, scrambled like mad…
Richelieu: The Myth of Strategy
January 20, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Looking back at the last 17 days of the primary season, it occurs to your Cardinal that despite all the talk to the contrary, every major candidate has exactly the same strategy, which is to say no real strategy at all. Each has tried to win every big primary, and failing that, scrambled like mad…
Richelieu: From the Cardinal's Mailbag
January 19, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Clifford writes to say he thinks my South Carolina post missed the point and any Romney supporters will go to fellow conservative Fred Thompson, not to McCain, "a serial, barbed thorn in Republicans' sides." He predicts a Fred Thompson win tomorrow in South Carolina. Well, Cliff, can't say I agree.…
Richelieu: From the Cardinal's Mailbag
January 19, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Clifford writes to say he thinks my South Carolina post missed the point and any Romney supporters will go to fellow conservative Fred Thompson, not to McCain, "a serial, barbed thorn in Republicans' sides." He predicts a Fred Thompson win tomorrow in South Carolina. Well, Cliff, can't say I agree.…
Richelieu: Rolling the Dice in Vegas (UPDATED)
January 17, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Judging from his campaign schedule and media reports, it appears the Romney campaign has decided to cut paid media, dial back any last-minute campaigning in South Carolina, and try to survive a likely third-place finish there by winning Saturday's Nevada caucus. It's an understandable move, but a…
Richelieu: Rolling the Dice in Vegas (UPDATED)
January 17, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Judging from his campaign schedule and media reports, it appears the Romney campaign has decided to cut paid media, dial back any last-minute campaigning in South Carolina, and try to survive a likely third-place finish there by winning Saturday's Nevada caucus. It's an understandable move, but a…
Richelieu: Battleground Florida
January 16, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
South Carolina will get all the attention for the next few days, but the real showstopper in the GOP race will be Florida on the 29th. SC will narrow the field; pity the poor candidate who finishes third there and winds up in the political electric chair. If McCain drops to third, he'll be labeled…
Richelieu: Battleground Florida
January 16, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
South Carolina will get all the attention for the next few days, but the real showstopper in the GOP race will be Florida on the 29th. SC will narrow the field; pity the poor candidate who finishes third there and winds up in the political electric chair. If McCain drops to third, he'll be labeled…
Richelieu: Michigan and Beyond
January 15, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Big stakes today in Michigan. The Cardinal's confessional has been open all morning and I've heard from both Romney and McCain fuglemen. The latest polls give a slight edge to Romney, but both sides are tense. The McCain people don't like the polls and the Romney people don't like the unpredictable…
Richelieu: Michigan and Beyond
January 15, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Big stakes today in Michigan. The Cardinal's confessional has been open all morning and I've heard from both Romney and McCain fuglemen. The latest polls give a slight edge to Romney, but both sides are tense. The McCain people don't like the polls and the Romney people don't like the unpredictable…
Richelieu: Rudy, Can You Spare a Dime?
January 14, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Money trouble in Rudy land. His senior staff has taken suspended pay. (Kudos to them for doing it.) The big question now is what's left in the Giuliani war-chest. Note the following item from the St. Petersburg TImes: "Also Friday, Giuliani campaign manager Michael DuHaime said they began January…
Richelieu: Rudy, Can You Spare a Dime?
January 14, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Money trouble in Rudy land. His senior staff has taken suspended pay. (Kudos to them for doing it.) The big question now is what's left in the Giuliani war-chest. Note the following item from the St. Petersburg TImes: "Also Friday, Giuliani campaign manager Michael DuHaime said they began January…
Richelieu: Buddy Rich
January 14, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
There is an old joke in Hollywood about the brilliantly talented but famously disliked drummer Buddy Rich. Ten thousand people attended his funeral, the joke asserts, but only to make certain he was dead. Barack Obama may be enjoying his own Buddy Rich moment now that he is back in a real race with…
Richelieu: Buddy Rich
January 14, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
There is an old joke in Hollywood about the brilliantly talented but famously disliked drummer Buddy Rich. Ten thousand people attended his funeral, the joke asserts, but only to make certain he was dead. Barack Obama may be enjoying his own Buddy Rich moment now that he is back in a real race with…
Richelieu: Hillary Meets the Press
January 13, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
A truly overpowering cocktail of narcissism and intellectual dishonesty mixed up by Hillary Clinton on Meet the Press this morning. Depressing to think that such slipperiness has apparently become the essential talent required of a wannabe president, but after watching Tim Russert try to wrestle…
Richelieu: Hillary Meets the Press
January 13, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
A truly overpowering cocktail of narcissism and intellectual dishonesty mixed up by Hillary Clinton on Meet the Press this morning. Depressing to think that such slipperiness has apparently become the essential talent required of a wannabe president, but after watching Tim Russert try to wrestle…
Richelieu: High Stakes in Nevada (UPDATED)
January 11, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
The stakes are increasing in the Nevada Democratic caucus. A resurgent Hillary Clinton has put her sensible pumps down and decided to contest Barack Obama there on January 19, despite Obama's formidable support from the all-powerful local culinary union. Clinton has led in polls and the union…
Richelieu: High Stakes in Nevada (UPDATED)
January 11, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
The stakes are increasing in the Nevada Democratic caucus. A resurgent Hillary Clinton has put her sensible pumps down and decided to contest Barack Obama there on January 19, despite Obama's formidable support from the all-powerful local culinary union. Clinton has led in polls and the union…
Richelieu: Tears for Fears
January 9, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
The great irony of the Clinton upset in New Hampshire is that none was more surprised by it than the senior Clinton staff, yet I predict thousands of trees will be chopped down to provide enough newsprint to cover all the "we knew our micro/macro turbo-targeting strategy would work the whole time"…
Richelieu: Tears for Fears
January 9, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
The great irony of the Clinton upset in New Hampshire is that none was more surprised by it than the senior Clinton staff, yet I predict thousands of trees will be chopped down to provide enough newsprint to cover all the "we knew our micro/macro turbo-targeting strategy would work the whole time"…
Richelieu: Romney, McCain, and Huckabee
January 9, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
A tough, tough night for Mitt Romney. He has to win Michigan now. If he pulls that off in a big upset, he may recover and do fine in the Saturday, January 19, Nevada caucuses. Don't forget Nevada's large LDS population. But the McCain media bounce from winning New Hampshire will be very strong and…
Richelieu: Romney, McCain, and Huckabee
January 9, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
A tough, tough night for Mitt Romney. He has to win Michigan now. If he pulls that off in a big upset, he may recover and do fine in the Saturday, January 19, Nevada caucuses. Don't forget Nevada's large LDS population. But the McCain media bounce from winning New Hampshire will be very strong and…
Richelieu: Post-New Hampshire Thoughts
January 9, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
1) I was way wrong. Kudos to Hillary. I didn't think she could do it. Egg on my face. 2) It must have been the tears. God, I hope this doesn't mean squadrons of crying candidates in the future. 3) It's true. She is a Bond villain. It has now been proven. She's impossible to bump off. 4) The race…
Richelieu: Post-New Hampshire Thoughts
January 9, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
1) I was way wrong. Kudos to Hillary. I didn't think she could do it. Egg on my face. 2) It must have been the tears. God, I hope this doesn't mean squadrons of crying candidates in the future. 3) It's true. She is a Bond villain. It has now been proven. She's impossible to bump off. 4) The race…
Richelieu: Only Obama Can Beat Obama
January 7, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Time to adjust some final predictions from my barstool here in New Hampshire. I thought Huckabee would get something going here. He has, but not much. Romney gave him a good beating in the first minutes of the Fox debate last night, and the Huck's schedule here has been light. No…
Richelieu: Only Obama Can Beat Obama
January 7, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Time to adjust some final predictions from my barstool here in New Hampshire. I thought Huckabee would get something going here. He has, but not much. Romney gave him a good beating in the first minutes of the Fox debate last night, and the Huck's schedule here has been light. No…
Richelieu: When D.C. Comes to New Hampshire
January 7, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
New Hampshire is visually vibrant during the final hours before a hotly contested presidential primary. Signs are everywhere, as are sign wavers. Everyone is sporting stickers or apparel for their candidates. The major hotels are full of media or fixers or staffers still hustling for candidates who…
Richelieu: When D.C. Comes to New Hampshire
January 7, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
New Hampshire is visually vibrant during the final hours before a hotly contested presidential primary. Signs are everywhere, as are sign wavers. Everyone is sporting stickers or apparel for their candidates. The major hotels are full of media or fixers or staffers still hustling for candidates who…
Richelieu: Live from Manchester
January 6, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
The Cardinal has landed in New Hampshire. While the media pack stayed in Iowa for caucus night, I left Des Moines early to avoid the crowds and get a jump in the Granite State. (And I've known for a year that Obama would win - OK, that'll be the last insufferable "told you so" posting on the blog.…
Richelieu: Live from Manchester
January 6, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
The Cardinal has landed in New Hampshire. While the media pack stayed in Iowa for caucus night, I left Des Moines early to avoid the crowds and get a jump in the Granite State. (And I've known for a year that Obama would win - OK, that'll be the last insufferable "told you so" posting on the blog.…
Richelieu: Predictions
January 3, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Your Cardinal has been busy converting the wicked in the bars and political back-rooms of icy Iowa, and offers a few final thoughts and predictions. 1.) Obama is going to win and could do so by a strong margin. Hillary and Edwards trail, with 60% chance Hillary comes in third. One interesting item:…
Richelieu: Predictions
January 3, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
Your Cardinal has been busy converting the wicked in the bars and political back-rooms of icy Iowa, and offers a few final thoughts and predictions. 1.) Obama is going to win and could do so by a strong margin. Hillary and Edwards trail, with 60% chance Hillary comes in third. One interesting item:…
Richelieu: Romney vs. McCain: A Three Part Affair
January 2, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
I see my friend the esteemed Monsieur Kristol is fighting his way through the deep snow of Iowa like the despised usurper Bonaparte slinking back from Moscow. Though we agree that even if Mitt Romney wins, he'll get sniffs and snark from much of the mainstream media pack. No matter what the flavor…
Richelieu: Romney vs. McCain: A Three Part Affair
January 2, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
I see my friend the esteemed Monsieur Kristol is fighting his way through the deep snow of Iowa like the despised usurper Bonaparte slinking back from Moscow. Though we agree that even if Mitt Romney wins, he'll get sniffs and snark from much of the mainstream media pack. No matter what the flavor…
Richelieu: Romney v. The Media
January 2, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
In every presidential primary the elite political press corps picks one candidate to thoroughly (and rather unfairly) despise. What triggers this is hard to calculate, but the usual ingredients are strong funding, perceived pandering, and a conservative stance on most social issues. Think Phil…
Richelieu: Romney v. The Media
January 2, 2008 · Richelieu, Blog
In every presidential primary the elite political press corps picks one candidate to thoroughly (and rather unfairly) despise. What triggers this is hard to calculate, but the usual ingredients are strong funding, perceived pandering, and a conservative stance on most social issues. Think Phil…
Richelieu: 100 Hours to Go
December 30, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
We are down to the last 100 hours in Iowa. On the Democratic side the big factor to watch is support for John Edwards in the stretch. If he stays in the hunt, he could either win by an inch or simply pull enough anti-Hillary vote away from Obama to give the former First Lady an comeback win. If he…
Richelieu: 100 Hours to Go
December 30, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
We are down to the last 100 hours in Iowa. On the Democratic side the big factor to watch is support for John Edwards in the stretch. If he stays in the hunt, he could either win by an inch or simply pull enough anti-Hillary vote away from Obama to give the former First Lady an comeback win. If he…
Richelieu: I could be wrong...
December 28, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
While I believe in the infallibility of divine insight, your Cardinal is only human, not to mention French and reactionary, so I, um, could be wrong on many of the opinions I've been expressing about the primary race. I doubt it. Still, I thought I'd show a little humility in this Holiday season…
Richelieu: I could be wrong...
December 28, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
While I believe in the infallibility of divine insight, your Cardinal is only human, not to mention French and reactionary, so I, um, could be wrong on many of the opinions I've been expressing about the primary race. I doubt it. Still, I thought I'd show a little humility in this Holiday season…
Richelieu: Three-Way Brawl
December 27, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
One week to go and while almost anything can still happen, the GOP race seems to have settled into a 3-way battle. Romney vs. McCain vs. Huckabee. Some thoughts: Rudy is fading fast. He's channeling his GOP mayoral predecessor John Lindsey's ghost from the '72 Democratic primary and pinning his…
Richelieu: Three-Way Brawl
December 27, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
One week to go and while almost anything can still happen, the GOP race seems to have settled into a 3-way battle. Romney vs. McCain vs. Huckabee. Some thoughts: Rudy is fading fast. He's channeling his GOP mayoral predecessor John Lindsey's ghost from the '72 Democratic primary and pinning his…
Richelieu: J'Accuse!
December 24, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
J'Accuse! Talented Super Blogger and sharp observer of all things political Mickey Kaus smells a conspiracy of former McCain aides to create a phony spin-driven sense of momentum on behalf of Sen. John McCain. Your Cardinal is suspected by the perspicacious Mr. Kaus of being in cahoots with this…
Richelieu: J'Accuse!
December 24, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
J'Accuse! Talented Super Blogger and sharp observer of all things political Mickey Kaus smells a conspiracy of former McCain aides to create a phony spin-driven sense of momentum on behalf of Sen. John McCain. Your Cardinal is suspected by the perspicacious Mr. Kaus of being in cahoots with this…
Richelieu: Poll Madness
December 20, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Beware the false Gospel ... of heathens and worse yet ... bad polls. The new ARG polling out today on Iowa and N.H. looks off because it near-certainly is. How can polls be wrong? It's easy, and more likely in a crazy environment like the present. First, some polls - rarely - hit a bad sample.…
Richelieu: Poll Madness
December 20, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Beware the false Gospel ... of heathens and worse yet ... bad polls. The new ARG polling out today on Iowa and N.H. looks off because it near-certainly is. How can polls be wrong? It's easy, and more likely in a crazy environment like the present. First, some polls - rarely - hit a bad sample.…
Richelieu: The McCain Scenario
December 20, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
John McCain could indeed win the nomination. First, he upsets Rudy and Thompson to win third in Iowa and bounces into McCain-fertile New Hampshire as the big surprise of the Iowa caucus. While McCain is still campaigning in Iowa, that means little unless he invests some money in real Iowa TV. We'll…
Richelieu: The McCain Scenario
December 20, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
John McCain could indeed win the nomination. First, he upsets Rudy and Thompson to win third in Iowa and bounces into McCain-fertile New Hampshire as the big surprise of the Iowa caucus. While McCain is still campaigning in Iowa, that means little unless he invests some money in real Iowa TV. We'll…
Richelieu: On Iowa
December 19, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
The Edwards campaign is trying hard to generate a sense of momentum in Iowa. I recognize a few trusty old dodges, mirrors, and other tricks from the spinmeister's toolbag in their spiel; they are pulling record (even Goldwater-esque) crowds, internal metrics like web visits, sign-ups, bumpersticker…
Richelieu: On Iowa
December 19, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
The Edwards campaign is trying hard to generate a sense of momentum in Iowa. I recognize a few trusty old dodges, mirrors, and other tricks from the spinmeister's toolbag in their spiel; they are pulling record (even Goldwater-esque) crowds, internal metrics like web visits, sign-ups, bumpersticker…
Richelieu: Rudy on the Road to Toast City
December 14, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Rudy Giuliani is fast heading toward Toast City. A new Florida poll - admittedly done by robots - has him sinking faster than a corpse dumped out of a Coup DeVille at midnight in the Meadowlands swamp. And Florida is Rudy's self-proclaimed "firewall." (My guess is reality for Rudy is somewhat…
Richelieu: Rudy on the Road to Toast City
December 14, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Rudy Giuliani is fast heading toward Toast City. A new Florida poll - admittedly done by robots - has him sinking faster than a corpse dumped out of a Coup DeVille at midnight in the Meadowlands swamp. And Florida is Rudy's self-proclaimed "firewall." (My guess is reality for Rudy is somewhat…
Richelieu: Clinton Campaign Kremlinology
December 13, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Here's more Clinton campaign Kremlinology because, well, it's just so much fun. The following is total speculation, based not on any secret info I have but instead on simple pattern recognition from campaigns past. Here is what is going on inside the campaign: 1.) Kill the Idiot Who Came Up With…
Richelieu: Clinton Campaign Kremlinology
December 13, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Here's more Clinton campaign Kremlinology because, well, it's just so much fun. The following is total speculation, based not on any secret info I have but instead on simple pattern recognition from campaigns past. Here is what is going on inside the campaign: 1.) Kill the Idiot Who Came Up With…
Richelieu: State of the Race
December 13, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A few divine thoughts on where the race now stands in both parties. As bad as the Des Moines Register debate was, complete with a wild-eyed Alan Keyes and the hopelessly smug School Marm moderator, it is still a big thing in Iowa. My guess is the biggest impact will be negative and it will be on…
Richelieu: State of the Race
December 13, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A few divine thoughts on where the race now stands in both parties. As bad as the Des Moines Register debate was, complete with a wild-eyed Alan Keyes and the hopelessly smug School Marm moderator, it is still a big thing in Iowa. My guess is the biggest impact will be negative and it will be on…
Richelieu: The Iowa Debate
December 12, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Thoughts on the first few moments of the debate ... 1) This Des Moines Register moderator is very scary. Like the meanest 5th grade teacher in America. ... She makes Hillary look like Mother Goose. Even Rudy looks afraid of her. 2) Bad lighting and set up. 3) Wake up Fred. 4) Huck is smooth as…
Richelieu: The Iowa Debate
December 12, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Thoughts on the first few moments of the debate ... 1) This Des Moines Register moderator is very scary. Like the meanest 5th grade teacher in America. ... She makes Hillary look like Mother Goose. Even Rudy looks afraid of her. 2) Bad lighting and set up. 3) Wake up Fred. 4) Huck is smooth as…
Richelieu: Giuliani Meets the Press
December 10, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A confident and gregarious Rudy Giuliani yesterday on Meet the Press. He's near-bulletproof in the chair, a testament to his many years spent learning to survive New York's Darwinian media pit. Still, it was mostly an hour of tough sledding. Rudy didn't get much chance to sell his wares. Instead he…
Richelieu: Giuliani Meets the Press
December 10, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A confident and gregarious Rudy Giuliani yesterday on Meet the Press. He's near-bulletproof in the chair, a testament to his many years spent learning to survive New York's Darwinian media pit. Still, it was mostly an hour of tough sledding. Rudy didn't get much chance to sell his wares. Instead he…
Richelieu: Romney's Helpful Speech; The Coming Clinton Panic
December 6, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
The speech will help Romney. He built up the stakes in the media and then delivered a performance the media and party insiders will praise. The Mormon issue is openly confronted, and more importantly Romney gave a performance that was the most human so far in his campaign. That was badly needed.…
Richelieu: Romney's Helpful Speech; The Coming Clinton Panic
December 6, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
The speech will help Romney. He built up the stakes in the media and then delivered a performance the media and party insiders will praise. The Mormon issue is openly confronted, and more importantly Romney gave a performance that was the most human so far in his campaign. That was badly needed.…
Richelieu: "Iceberg!"
December 5, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Steve Hayes's recent reporting from Iowa confirms a suspicion I've long held. I've thought that as Obama rises in Iowa, Hillary would lose it, go on the attack, and fall right into Obama's spider web. It appears to be happening. Obama's (smart) bet is that in this election people want to change the…
Richelieu: "Iceberg!"
December 5, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Steve Hayes's recent reporting from Iowa confirms a suspicion I've long held. I've thought that as Obama rises in Iowa, Hillary would lose it, go on the attack, and fall right into Obama's spider web. It appears to be happening. Obama's (smart) bet is that in this election people want to change the…
Richelieu: A Case for Romney's Speech
December 3, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
I think a strong case can be made for the Romney speech. Romney's faith is the big elephant in the room for a lot of primary voters. Ignoring it is no strategy for dealing with it, especially as Mike Huckabee puts personal faith in the center of the campaign with unabashed rhetoric and even…
Richelieu: A Case for Romney's Speech
December 3, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
I think a strong case can be made for the Romney speech. Romney's faith is the big elephant in the room for a lot of primary voters. Ignoring it is no strategy for dealing with it, especially as Mike Huckabee puts personal faith in the center of the campaign with unabashed rhetoric and even…
Richelieu: Dodd's Web
December 3, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
I got an email the other day from Chris Dodd's campaign manager. A crafty one. It is designed to look like an internal text email from Sheryl Cohen, Dodd's campaign manager, to web guy Tim Tagaris, discussing a potential email appeal for money. Here's the text: Tim, I made a few small changes to…
Richelieu: Dodd's Web
December 3, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
I got an email the other day from Chris Dodd's campaign manager. A crafty one. It is designed to look like an internal text email from Sheryl Cohen, Dodd's campaign manager, to web guy Tim Tagaris, discussing a potential email appeal for money. Here's the text: Tim, I made a few small changes to…
Richelieu: Giuliani's Character
November 30, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
There's an interesting story in today's New York Times regarding Rudy Giuliani's highly creative relationship with the blizzard of impressive statistics he often cites about himself as mayor of New York City. It is not uncommon for pols to maintain a extensive mental library of triumphant…
Richelieu: Giuliani's Character
November 30, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
There's an interesting story in today's New York Times regarding Rudy Giuliani's highly creative relationship with the blizzard of impressive statistics he often cites about himself as mayor of New York City. It is not uncommon for pols to maintain a extensive mental library of triumphant…
Richelieu: Huckabee's Challenge
November 30, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Having outlined a possible winning scenario for Mike Huckabee, let's look at a big problem potentially standing in his way. While the national parties don't exactly have Star Chambers complete with powerful insiders wearing monk's hoods and pulling party strings from a candlelit secret chamber…
Richelieu: Huckabee's Challenge
November 30, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Having outlined a possible winning scenario for Mike Huckabee, let's look at a big problem potentially standing in his way. While the national parties don't exactly have Star Chambers complete with powerful insiders wearing monk's hoods and pulling party strings from a candlelit secret chamber…
Richelieu: 2008: The Year of the Upset?
November 29, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
I see my good friend, the distinguished neo-Jacobin Monsieur Kristol, has broken into his ample wine supply again and insulted the monarchy. A weekend chained to the cheap seats at an Alabama tractor pull would seem fitting punishment for my rabble loving friend's imprudence, but alas, we…
Richelieu: 2008: The Year of the Upset?
November 29, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
I see my good friend, the distinguished neo-Jacobin Monsieur Kristol, has broken into his ample wine supply again and insulted the monarchy. A weekend chained to the cheap seats at an Alabama tractor pull would seem fitting punishment for my rabble loving friend's imprudence, but alas, we…
Richelieu: A Depressing Debate
November 29, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
What a depressing debate. CNN's long slide into mediocrity accelerates. Is this what running for president of the greatest democracy in the world has become? Standing in front of CNN's corporate logo in a hall full of yowling Ron Paul loons and enduring clumsy webcam questions from Unabomber…
Richelieu: A Depressing Debate
November 29, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
What a depressing debate. CNN's long slide into mediocrity accelerates. Is this what running for president of the greatest democracy in the world has become? Standing in front of CNN's corporate logo in a hall full of yowling Ron Paul loons and enduring clumsy webcam questions from Unabomber…
Richelieu: "Bring Me the Head of Mike Huckabee"
November 21, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
As predicted here, two new Iowa polls show Mike Huckabee in position to upset Mitt Romney. Talk about standing on Superman's cape. Huckabee is doing it partially by taking votes Fred Thompson needs to have any hope of getting out of Iowa with a viable campaign. So Fred has a problem too. I'm sure…
Richelieu: "Bring Me the Head of Mike Huckabee"
November 21, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
As predicted here, two new Iowa polls show Mike Huckabee in position to upset Mitt Romney. Talk about standing on Superman's cape. Huckabee is doing it partially by taking votes Fred Thompson needs to have any hope of getting out of Iowa with a viable campaign. So Fred has a problem too. I'm sure…
Richelieu: Primary Blasphemy
November 20, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Blasphemy! A nimble and clever argument is now advanced by Monsieur Kristol, an obvious troublemaker. In the good old days you could just throw a heretic into a cell, or better yet boiling oil, but in this godless modern age I am forced to respond with mere words. Damn you Robespierre! Either you…
Richelieu: Primary Blasphemy
November 20, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Blasphemy! A nimble and clever argument is now advanced by Monsieur Kristol, an obvious troublemaker. In the good old days you could just throw a heretic into a cell, or better yet boiling oil, but in this godless modern age I am forced to respond with mere words. Damn you Robespierre! Either you…
Richelieu: McCain's Real Iowa Mistake
November 19, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A new piece in TIME magazine has but one thesis, although it is as irritating to me as the original 95. You can read it here. The hopelessly uninformed story, by Ana Marie Cox of Wonkette/DC sex gossip fame, argues that McCain is a fool to campaign in Iowa. Using selective poll numbers and the…
Richelieu: McCain's Real Iowa Mistake
November 19, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A new piece in TIME magazine has but one thesis, although it is as irritating to me as the original 95. You can read it here. The hopelessly uninformed story, by Ana Marie Cox of Wonkette/DC sex gossip fame, argues that McCain is a fool to campaign in Iowa. Using selective poll numbers and the…
Richelieu: Pushy Polling
November 19, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
I know nothing specific about the "Mitt Romney Hearts Satan" push-polling kerfuffle. But your Cardinal does have a theory about what really happened, along the lines of the Sacred and the Profane. "Push polling" has a murky definition, and means different things to different people. The media, and…
Richelieu: Pushy Polling
November 19, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
I know nothing specific about the "Mitt Romney Hearts Satan" push-polling kerfuffle. But your Cardinal does have a theory about what really happened, along the lines of the Sacred and the Profane. "Push polling" has a murky definition, and means different things to different people. The media, and…
Richelieu: Romney and Huckabee
November 16, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A couple of new polls show Mike Huckabee closing in fast on Romney in Iowa. This is actually a relatively "good" piece of bad news for the always nervous Romney campaign. Two reasons: First, something finally has happened to lower Romney's dangerously high Iowa expectations. The great oddsmakers in…
Richelieu: Romney and Huckabee
November 16, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A couple of new polls show Mike Huckabee closing in fast on Romney in Iowa. This is actually a relatively "good" piece of bad news for the always nervous Romney campaign. Two reasons: First, something finally has happened to lower Romney's dangerously high Iowa expectations. The great oddsmakers in…
Richelieu: Giuliani's House of Mirrors
November 13, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
The Giuliani campaign is playing a beautiful game of three card monte with the national media regarding the expectations game in Iowa and New Hampshire - not that I've ventured out of the Cathedral to actually witness such a sinful game of tricks and deceit. ... I hear the Rudy expectations grift…
Richelieu: Giuliani's House of Mirrors
November 13, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
The Giuliani campaign is playing a beautiful game of three card monte with the national media regarding the expectations game in Iowa and New Hampshire - not that I've ventured out of the Cathedral to actually witness such a sinful game of tricks and deceit. ... I hear the Rudy expectations grift…
Richelieu: On the Pleasure of Hating
November 12, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Today's sermon is about hatred. Specifically that wonderful, molten, candidate-upon-candidate intra-party hatred that makes a presidential primary go and go. Most candidates, by nature, hate each other. But over time, each candidate develops two special hatreds, each boiling at an intensity far…
Richelieu: On the Pleasure of Hating
November 12, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Today's sermon is about hatred. Specifically that wonderful, molten, candidate-upon-candidate intra-party hatred that makes a presidential primary go and go. Most candidates, by nature, hate each other. But over time, each candidate develops two special hatreds, each boiling at an intensity far…
Richelieu: The Latest Polls
November 8, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
New polls are out. In Iowa, Zogby has it 28 percent Clinton, 25 percent Obama, 21 percent Edwards. Hillary, call your office: This is the second Iowa poll in two weeks showing Clinton and Obama in a statistical tie. A third poll, from ARG in late October, shows a wider Clinton lead at 32 HRC, 22…
Richelieu: The Latest Polls
November 8, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
New polls are out. In Iowa, Zogby has it 28 percent Clinton, 25 percent Obama, 21 percent Edwards. Hillary, call your office: This is the second Iowa poll in two weeks showing Clinton and Obama in a statistical tie. A third poll, from ARG in late October, shows a wider Clinton lead at 32 HRC, 22…
Richelieu: Thompson's Iowa Buy
November 8, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Solid first spot from Big Fred Thompson. The spot that counts is the :60, which is a smart but expensive move. Conventional wisdom is to always use :30's to deliver the same number of spots to the voter audience for half the money. But doing a :60 gives Fred plenty of time to roll along in his…
Richelieu: Thompson's Iowa Buy
November 8, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Solid first spot from Big Fred Thompson. The spot that counts is the :60, which is a smart but expensive move. Conventional wisdom is to always use :30's to deliver the same number of spots to the voter audience for half the money. But doing a :60 gives Fred plenty of time to roll along in his…
Richelieu: Study Sarko
November 8, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Is it just me or does the Bush and Sarkozy act now thrilling audiences in Washington bear an eerily resemblance to Sandler & Young? Sarkozy does offer a great lesson for the next Republican nominee. In the French election earlier this year, Sarko was the candidate of the weaker party voters were…
Richelieu: Study Sarko
November 8, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Is it just me or does the Bush and Sarkozy act now thrilling audiences in Washington bear an eerily resemblance to Sandler & Young? Sarkozy does offer a great lesson for the next Republican nominee. In the French election earlier this year, Sarko was the candidate of the weaker party voters were…
Richelieu: Robertson's Mixed Blessing
November 7, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Big day for endorsements. Pat Robertson has taken some time off from claiming to set astounding weight-lifting records and decided to shoulder what could become an even heavier burden: convincing Christian conservatives that Rudy Giuliani shares their values on social issues. Conventional wisdom on…
Richelieu: Robertson's Mixed Blessing
November 7, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Big day for endorsements. Pat Robertson has taken some time off from claiming to set astounding weight-lifting records and decided to shoulder what could become an even heavier burden: convincing Christian conservatives that Rudy Giuliani shares their values on social issues. Conventional wisdom on…
Richelieu: Spinning Clinton
November 5, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
For a good laugh, read Mark Penn's latest, hilariously defensive "Ignore the Churchill Lies on the Radio, We Are Winning in Zee East" memo to Clinton supporters here. It is a certain early tell that the more trouble a front-running campaign faces, the more they will find themselves fiercely quoting…
Richelieu: Spinning Clinton
November 5, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
For a good laugh, read Mark Penn's latest, hilariously defensive "Ignore the Churchill Lies on the Radio, We Are Winning in Zee East" memo to Clinton supporters here. It is a certain early tell that the more trouble a front-running campaign faces, the more they will find themselves fiercely quoting…
Richelieu: Thompson's Uneven Performance
November 4, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Fred Thompson took his acid bath this morning on Meet the Press. Measured by the traditional standards of Sunday morning political theater, it was an uneven performance. Fred did well on international affairs and "stumbled" on domestic policy. His answer on abortion in particular will come as an…
Richelieu: Thompson's Uneven Performance
November 4, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Fred Thompson took his acid bath this morning on Meet the Press. Measured by the traditional standards of Sunday morning political theater, it was an uneven performance. Fred did well on international affairs and "stumbled" on domestic policy. His answer on abortion in particular will come as an…
Richelieu: What Romney Wants
November 2, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Mitt Romney's campaign is finding it's message footing, and just in the nick of time. Romney got off track early in his campaign, when he tried to exploit the "pure conservative" space left open when former Beltway-buzz-king George Allen's presidential aspirations collapsed. The purist position…
Richelieu: What Romney Wants
November 2, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Mitt Romney's campaign is finding it's message footing, and just in the nick of time. Romney got off track early in his campaign, when he tried to exploit the "pure conservative" space left open when former Beltway-buzz-king George Allen's presidential aspirations collapsed. The purist position…
Richelieu: Clinton's Real Problem
November 1, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Hillary Clinton fumbles a debate and I'm shocked, shocked to hear the tiresome howls of a gender excuse. It's amazing, really. In the special reality of Hillary-world, First Lady experience = Presidential experience; being the Democratic frontrunner = rightful Place in History; and yet suffering…
Richelieu: Clinton's Real Problem
November 1, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Hillary Clinton fumbles a debate and I'm shocked, shocked to hear the tiresome howls of a gender excuse. It's amazing, really. In the special reality of Hillary-world, First Lady experience = Presidential experience; being the Democratic frontrunner = rightful Place in History; and yet suffering…
Richelieu: New Iowa Numbers
October 29, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
The Cardinal is back, after a few days in the tropics chasing Huguenots and converting the lost. I see Romney has captured his long sought endorsement from Sen. Judd Gregg. While endorsements are worth little in New Hampshire, they are very helpful in spinning elite media and keeping donors happy.…
Richelieu: New Iowa Numbers
October 29, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
The Cardinal is back, after a few days in the tropics chasing Huguenots and converting the lost. I see Romney has captured his long sought endorsement from Sen. Judd Gregg. While endorsements are worth little in New Hampshire, they are very helpful in spinning elite media and keeping donors happy.…
Richelieu: Huck's Media Exam
October 23, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
The good news for Mike Huckabee is that he's been discovered by the national media. That's also the bad news. Now that the former Arkansas governor's success at the debates and in the latest round of Iowa caucus polling has established Huckabee as a possible contender, albeit a longshot, he'll have…
Richelieu: Huck's Media Exam
October 23, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
The good news for Mike Huckabee is that he's been discovered by the national media. That's also the bad news. Now that the former Arkansas governor's success at the debates and in the latest round of Iowa caucus polling has established Huckabee as a possible contender, albeit a longshot, he'll have…
Richelieu: Clinton and the Florida Debate
October 22, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Last night there was another debate, which was up against sports on TV and having a life in general. I saw a little more than half of it. All the majors did better; Romney much improved and on a far stronger Mr. Fixit message, Fred back on his vitamins, Rudy smooth, Huckabee effective, and McCain…
Richelieu: Clinton and the Florida Debate
October 22, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Last night there was another debate, which was up against sports on TV and having a life in general. I saw a little more than half of it. All the majors did better; Romney much improved and on a far stronger Mr. Fixit message, Fred back on his vitamins, Rudy smooth, Huckabee effective, and McCain…
Richelieu: Exit Brownback
October 18, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Most of the media will miss this, but if Sam Brownback is indeed dropping out, the big winner will be Mike Huckabee. It's all about Iowa. Brownback's support there was small, but it was centered in Iowa's hardcore Christian conservative circles, where Huckabee will now have little competition.…
Richelieu: Exit Brownback
October 18, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Most of the media will miss this, but if Sam Brownback is indeed dropping out, the big winner will be Mike Huckabee. It's all about Iowa. Brownback's support there was small, but it was centered in Iowa's hardcore Christian conservative circles, where Huckabee will now have little competition.…
Richelieu: From the Cardinal's Mailbag
October 17, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Eric in Indiana asks, "What about Fred Thompson?" My indulgence, sorry. Actually forgot to mention Fred in my post. Whoops ... although Fred is a doing a good job these days of being easy to forget, canceling campaign appearances and all. Fred's financial report was healthy, with a decent pile of…
Richelieu: From the Cardinal's Mailbag
October 17, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Eric in Indiana asks, "What about Fred Thompson?" My indulgence, sorry. Actually forgot to mention Fred in my post. Whoops ... although Fred is a doing a good job these days of being easy to forget, canceling campaign appearances and all. Fred's financial report was healthy, with a decent pile of…
Richelieu: Money Talks
October 17, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
There's a thick jumble of new data now coming out about the financial strength of the various campaigns, courtesy of the Federal Election Commission. The only question is whether there are any hidden numbers in all these reports that reflect a game-changing new reality in the race. The answer is…
Richelieu: Money Talks
October 17, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
There's a thick jumble of new data now coming out about the financial strength of the various campaigns, courtesy of the Federal Election Commission. The only question is whether there are any hidden numbers in all these reports that reflect a game-changing new reality in the race. The answer is…
Richelieu: Turning Bronze into Gold
October 16, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Here's a great cocktail party scenario, courtesy of the Campaign Standard and your favorite Cardinal. Third place usually isn't worth spit in American politics. But this year things could be different on the Republican side. It's still early and much will change. But the third place ticket out of…
Richelieu: Turning Bronze into Gold
October 16, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Here's a great cocktail party scenario, courtesy of the Campaign Standard and your favorite Cardinal. Third place usually isn't worth spit in American politics. But this year things could be different on the Republican side. It's still early and much will change. But the third place ticket out of…
Richelieu: Romney's Blues
October 15, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Every serious campaign hits a big slump in the pre-primary season, be it John McCain's time in the immigration reform wood chipper or Fred Thompson's Zombie on Ice announcement tour. Rudy Giuliani's big slump will surely come soon enough. But for now, Mitt Romney is in the ditch. In some ways,…
Richelieu: Romney's Blues
October 15, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Every serious campaign hits a big slump in the pre-primary season, be it John McCain's time in the immigration reform wood chipper or Fred Thompson's Zombie on Ice announcement tour. Rudy Giuliani's big slump will surely come soon enough. But for now, Mitt Romney is in the ditch. In some ways,…
Richelieu: Rudy, Romney, and Richardson
October 11, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A few musings. It will be interesting to see when the Rudy v. Romney spat reaches paid media. Both are vulnerable. And Romney's campaign is fumbling a bit, both in strategy and message. Neither Rudy nor Romney can wait to the last minute and give the other an opportunity to launch a late attack.…
Richelieu: Rudy, Romney, and Richardson
October 11, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A few musings. It will be interesting to see when the Rudy v. Romney spat reaches paid media. Both are vulnerable. And Romney's campaign is fumbling a bit, both in strategy and message. Neither Rudy nor Romney can wait to the last minute and give the other an opportunity to launch a late attack.…
Richelieu: Rudy's Best So Far
October 10, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Rudy's best debate so far. Romney somewhat improved from his weak showing at the prior FOX News debate. The new McCain is the old McCain, which is also a better and more effective McCain. Of the Big Four, Fred Thompson was weakest and this was his first night. A sober performance, but lackluster…
Richelieu: Rudy's Best So Far
October 10, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Rudy's best debate so far. Romney somewhat improved from his weak showing at the prior FOX News debate. The new McCain is the old McCain, which is also a better and more effective McCain. Of the Big Four, Fred Thompson was weakest and this was his first night. A sober performance, but lackluster…
Richelieu: Short Hillary
October 8, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Everything old is new again. George Allen, once a chattering class false frontrunner himself for the GOP nomination, is set to endorse Fred Thompson. I doubt the media will be able to resist going the ironic route as they cover this. One gaffe-happy-stumble-bum endorses another. The Thompson High…
Richelieu: Short Hillary
October 8, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Everything old is new again. George Allen, once a chattering class false frontrunner himself for the GOP nomination, is set to endorse Fred Thompson. I doubt the media will be able to resist going the ironic route as they cover this. One gaffe-happy-stumble-bum endorses another. The Thompson High…
Third Quarter Numbers
October 5, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Hard to find anything very meaningful in the GOP money numbers. Rudy earns kudos for an impressive $16 million cash on hand. His campaign is managing its expenditures very well. Romney's weak $9 million cash on hand would be a problem, but MittWorld has two strong excuses. First, they essentially…
Third Quarter Numbers
October 5, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Hard to find anything very meaningful in the GOP money numbers. Rudy earns kudos for an impressive $16 million cash on hand. His campaign is managing its expenditures very well. Romney's weak $9 million cash on hand would be a problem, but MittWorld has two strong excuses. First, they essentially…
Media Blasphemy
October 3, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Another day, another blasphemy against rational political analysis by the media. This time, a new national poll from the Washington Post complete with howls of new insight: It's over. Hillary is unstoppable. Rudy commands. Media polling is strange journalism. The media both creates a story by…
Media Blasphemy
October 3, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Another day, another blasphemy against rational political analysis by the media. This time, a new national poll from the Washington Post complete with howls of new insight: It's over. Hillary is unstoppable. Rudy commands. Media polling is strange journalism. The media both creates a story by…
Hillary's Coat-tails
October 3, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A reader writes your Cardinal: Can you, s'il vous plait, apply your considerable clairvoyance to the conundrum that appears to be developing regarding la reine Hillary Rodham Clinton in terms of her national polling largesse versus the rumors/articles claiming that she will have "reverse"…
Hillary's Coat-tails
October 3, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A reader writes your Cardinal: Can you, s'il vous plait, apply your considerable clairvoyance to the conundrum that appears to be developing regarding la reine Hillary Rodham Clinton in terms of her national polling largesse versus the rumors/articles claiming that she will have "reverse"…
Stupid Finance Spin Games!
October 2, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Your Cardinal is always astounded at how much childish energy the campaigns waste fan dancing and playing silly games with each other over the timing of their quarterly fundraising announcements. The numbers are still a fog of spin and early claims, but if the early claims are to be trusted, it is…
Stupid Finance Spin Games!
October 2, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
Your Cardinal is always astounded at how much childish energy the campaigns waste fan dancing and playing silly games with each other over the timing of their quarterly fundraising announcements. The numbers are still a fog of spin and early claims, but if the early claims are to be trusted, it is…
A Three-Way Tie in New Hampshire
October 1, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A second New Hampshire poll, this one from the famously bouncy ARG, shows a three way tie in N.H. between Romney, McCain, and Giuliani. All primary polls are tricky, but this makes the second poll in a row in N.H. to show a three-way tie. Let me interpret this Gospel. The race is, as primaries tend…
A Three-Way Tie in New Hampshire
October 1, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A second New Hampshire poll, this one from the famously bouncy ARG, shows a three way tie in N.H. between Romney, McCain, and Giuliani. All primary polls are tricky, but this makes the second poll in a row in N.H. to show a three-way tie. Let me interpret this Gospel. The race is, as primaries tend…
Game On
October 1, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
The Hillary bubble among the elite media has begun to burst and a new Iowa poll shows Obama pulling narrowly ahead in the caucus. Ah October, a chill in the air and a churning in the stomachs of campaign hacks everywhere. This is getting serious. HRC is paying the same price for her Bond villain…
Game On
October 1, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
The Hillary bubble among the elite media has begun to burst and a new Iowa poll shows Obama pulling narrowly ahead in the caucus. Ah October, a chill in the air and a churning in the stomachs of campaign hacks everywhere. This is getting serious. HRC is paying the same price for her Bond villain…
McCain's TV Ads are Up in the Wrong State
September 27, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
CNN.com reports that John McCain's campaign is about to start running TV ads in New Hampshire. Right move, wrong state. The path to winning New Hampshire starts in Iowa. McCain should bet his scarce TV resources in Iowa with a large TV buy. TV ads move numbers in Iowa and a new Hawkeye poll showing…
McCain's TV Ads are Up in the Wrong State
September 27, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
CNN.com reports that John McCain's campaign is about to start running TV ads in New Hampshire. Right move, wrong state. The path to winning New Hampshire starts in Iowa. McCain should bet his scarce TV resources in Iowa with a large TV buy. TV ads move numbers in Iowa and a new Hawkeye poll showing…
A Long Hard Slog
September 27, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A long slog of a debate on MSNBC tonight. One hackneyed cliche after another. Meanwhile the state of the Democratic race stays the same. Hillary kept her hawk's eye on the general election by speaking a lot and saying as little as possible. She was adroit, practiced, and tremendously uncompelling.…
A Long Hard Slog
September 27, 2007 · Richelieu, Blog
A long slog of a debate on MSNBC tonight. One hackneyed cliche after another. Meanwhile the state of the Democratic race stays the same. Hillary kept her hawk's eye on the general election by speaking a lot and saying as little as possible. She was adroit, practiced, and tremendously uncompelling.…