Gary Andres

Last week, Congressional Republicans wrote a new chapter in government reform, convening a meeting in Washington with 16 newly elected GOP governors. To some, the confab looked like just another photo-op celebrating the party’s historic gains in last month’s midterm elections.

Signs of a new political culture abound. Call it the era of “reverse pork barrel.”

Lots of people asked – before and after the midterm elections – if a Republican congressional majority would help or hurt President Obama’s reelection chances?

Never mind the talk of tsunamis and tidal waves, last Tuesday’s results revealed some storm clouds ahead for both parties. (Okay, I promise to stop sounding like the political Weather Channel.)

Last week I argued that President Obama and the Democrats failed to anticipate the counter mobilization created by passage of the health care law. And while some of the ghosts of health care haunted Democrats this past Tuesday, other White House and Democratic policies pursued in the last two…

Tuesday’s election produced another opportunity for hope and change in Washington.

Resurgent Republic released this pre-election memo on Friday that should top your weekend reading list. The analysis, authored by three top GOP strategists and Resurgent Republic leaders -- Ed Gillespie, Whit Ayers and Leslie Sanchez – argues that Obama and the Democrats’ slide among independent…

President Obama and Democratic leaders in Congress seriously misdiagnosed the politics of health care reform. Yet their malpractice is even more extensive than generally known.Polling consistently shows that opposition to the new law outstrips support. Rasmussen’s tracking surveys regularly…

This Newsweek poll released over the weekend found some surprisingly good news for Democrats. But it probably doesn’t mean much for President Obama and his party: the sample includes too many Democrats, at least based on a lot of other recent polls.

Around the 1964 presidential election--back when "Mad Man" Don Draper was still smoking Camels--men and women began to gradually diverge in their political views and behavior.  We call this the “gender gap.”

Last week’s anemic jobs report came as a sobering reminder that America’s economic malaise shows little sign of slowing. Overall non-farm payrolls shrunk by 95,000 in September, while private sector hiring decelerated for the third consecutive month. High unemployment is now an acute national…

If the Republicans win enough seats in Congress this November, GOP leader John Boehner will become the next speaker of the House. The Ohio Republican would assume the gavel amid a maelstrom of polarization not seen since the late nineteenth century.

The 2010 federal fiscal year ended unceremoniously this week – a political and substantive fiasco for the Democrats. It included a cascade of miscalculations that could haunt the party in the November elections.  But that pales in comparison to the serious harm they’ve inflicted on the American…

CNN released a new survey on Friday that found President Obama’s approval rating hit a new all time low. The network points to the listless economy and ongoing wars as the principal reasons for the public’s dissatisfaction with the White House:

Voter interest in the November elections continues its staggered crescendo. For candidates and consultants the long opus nears its denouement. But non-politicos – who react to different rhythms – are just now beginning to stir.

Many factors are contributing to President Obama’s decline in popularity since his historic election less than two years ago.  A stagnant economy with stubbornly high unemployment certainly caused part of the downward trend.  But there is more.

Earlier this week, President Obama proposed another round of stimulus spending, aiming to boost the sagging economy and—he vainly hopes—his party’s slumping political fortunes.

Last week House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio delivered a stinging critique of the Obama administration’s economic policies. But the White House’s swift and tart reaction to Boehner was both illuminating and sadly predictable.

Christian Science Monitor reporter Gail Russell Chaddock wrote this story yesterday about Democrats' tough sledding heading toward November, and specifically the congressional race in Virginia's 11th congressional district between incumbent Democrat Gerry Connelly and Republican challenger Keith…

Partisan polarization seems like it purchased a lifetime pass in this city. 

I had the pleasure of traveling to California last week, a place D.H. Lawrence once described as “crazy sensible” because its people think about “just the moment: hardly as far ahead as carpe diem.”

The View’s hostesses probably won’t invite Senator John Thune on the show to discuss his new budget proposal. Ideas this thoughtful rarely attract pop culture media attention.

Polling on inside-the-beltway legislative issues is fraught with challenges because it requires translating Washington-speak into a language voters can understand.

It sounded very easy in theory. With the biggest tax increase in history set to go into effect on January 1, 2011, Democrats were poised to win the middle class rock heroes award.

The proportion of Republicans, Democrats, and independents that turnout to vote shape the outcome of every election.  Even small shifts in these percentages can dramatically alter political outcomes. And this November’s midterm is no exception.

Last November, as members of the House of Representatives considered the health care reform bill, President Obama made a dramatic trip to Capitol Hill. After closing down sixteen blocks of Pennsylvania Avenue, a half-mile long White House motorcade whisked the presidential entourage past cheering…

The news media hailed President Obama’s victory on the Wall Street reform bill signed into law earlier this week as another example of his legislative prowess.

Do budget deficits matter?  In one sense the answer is unequivocally yes.  Experts agree that when the federal government spends more than it takes in for a sustained period and borrows to make up the difference, the result is severe economic consequences.

President Obama’s behavior over the past year, and particularly the last month, borders on bizarre.  The candidate who promised to bring people together and move beyond polarization has morphed into a divisive and defensive president.

If legislation were dirt, Democrats would have piled up a mountain of it over the past 18 months, digging themselves in a deep political hole in the process.

When tiny globs of gooey brown oil began washing up on Gulf shores, it foreshadowed a more ominous environmental calamity lurking just over the horizon.  These first signs were troubling enough. But they also revealed a more daunting threat riding incoming tides that might prove impossible to fix.

More bad news emerged yesterday for those Democrats hoping support for health care reform might boost their electoral fortunes.  The short answer: it won't. At least, not in certain pivotal states and not with swing voters.

A new Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix poll (conducted June 5-8, 2010), finds that Republicans hold a substantial edge on a number of policy issues with two key voter groups – seniors (age 65+) and independents – five months before this year’s midterm elections.

Political enthusiasm is the secret sauce of American politics.  When it comes to producing calories for winning elections, it’s the difference between a Big Mac and Lean Cuisine.

Zoila, Liam, and Alena were strangers with a shared goal.  They met in Evanston, Illinois, last Saturday for the first time, telling other strangers they encountered as they walked door-to-door, “We’re here for the president.”

The day Abraham Lincoln delivered his electrifying speech at New York City’s Cooper Union in 1860, he sat for a now famous photograph by Mathew Brady. Lincoln’s stem-winding perorations that night won him high praise from political elites, but the picture – widely used and reproduced in the…

When Arizona Governor Jan Brewer signed her state’s new immigration law on April 23, reaction from the political Left was swift and furious. They predicted jack-booted rogue cops staging midnight raids on the homes of everyone.

Two seemingly unrelated news stories unfolded in Washington last week -- developments that could further stoke the flames of voter discontent across America. Taken together, these reports could also label the Democrats with an ugly and hard to erase moniker heading into the November elections: …

Congress has a black eye, and it’s starting to swell. As an institution, its approval ratings bounce near all time lows, creating a crisis in confidence among voters.  Can Americans count on an institution so anemic in trust to heal the difficult and major problems confronting the nation?

Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress didn’t invent the politics of vilification, and they will not be the last to practice it. The president and his political allies, however, have refined the practice to an art form – they say they abhor vilification, yet consistently demonize when promoting…

Public opinion about the appropriate role of the federal government moves like the moon cycle, causing tidal shifts in citizen attitudes and election outcomes. After watching Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress over the past year and a half, attitudes about Washington are changing again,…

The American suburbs fueled the emergence of the Democratic congressional majority in 2006 and then helped expand it 2008.  During those two election cycles, Republicans lost 24 incumbent or open seat races in these cul-de-sac filled districts.

Voters elected Barack Obama in November 2008 – at least in part – based on an American myth. Seventeen months later, the same allegory is creating a host of consequences for individual politicians, as well as the way citizens view political institutions like Congress.

In 1982, Tylenol faced a potentially lethal brand crisis.  Someone tampered with its packaging in a number of Chicago retail locations, randomly lacing the pain relief capsules with cyanide.  Fear and chaos ensued.  Seven people died, and the well known product risked commercial extinction.

Success in America is an endangered species. Business bonuses are under heightened scrutiny; soon, making the right picks in the stock market or earning more than $200,000 per year will mean higher taxes; even the occasional business trips that “happened in Vegas” to reward top sales producers…

President Obama missed a host of opportunities to remedy Washington’s fever of polarization during the health care debate. Instead of forging a bipartisan coalition and ratcheting back the campaign-style rhetoric, he agreed to a one-party strategy and consistently demonized his opponents with over…

A new Resurgent Republic poll released today finds a host of opportunities for Republicans among this fast growing group of Americans.

If the Democrats’ health care bill were a chemical, the Environmental Protection Agency might label it as a toxic substance lethal to incumbents.  More wavering House lawmakers are realizing this chilling electoral reality as the showdown vote approaches in the next several days.

Pew Research released a new analysis showing increasing concern among Americans about the federal budget deficit in the past six months. Those citing red ink as the “most important problem” reached the highest level in twenty years and nearly doubled, (from 6% in August of 2009 to 11% in January of…

When legislative leaders count votes before a bill comes to the floor they call it a “whip check.”  It’s an old English phrase referring to those who kept the dogs in line during a foxhunt.

Midterm election forecasts by political scientists and economists are starting to roll out, and the picture is not pretty for the Democrats. This one by Emory University political scientist Alan I. Abramowitz writing for Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts a net loss of 37 Democratic House seats…

Conventional wisdom in Washington has already figured out the winners and losers of next week’s White House health care summit.  The smart money is on President Obama. The silver-tongued orator will wow C-Span viewers, demonstrating his knack for substantive detail and cool debating style.

I first encountered the word Zugzwang in a 1985 New York Times Magazine column by the late William Safire.  It’s a chess term that means “compelled to move, but imperiled by doing so.” The word’s political implications are profound.

 President Obama’s political learning curve continues.  Despite promising to end partisan polarization and change the tone of Washington, he – by his own admission – missed the mark during his first year in the White House. 

Many immediately proclaimed last week’s Citizens United v. FEC Supreme Court decision as a huge win for business “special interests.”  But those quick draw reactions are based more on ideology and political rhetoric than hard facts.  While this latest change in the campaign finance landscape…

Representatives of organized labor met in the White House last week and cut a deal exempting union members from paying higher taxes as part of health care reform. It was a tawdry affair in many ways. But the meeting seems to have had an unintended consequence: Massachusetts has just elected a…

House Republican Leader John Boehner announced yesterday that his former long time aide Barry Jackson would return as his new chief of staff. Jackson replaces Paula Nowakoski who passed away unexpectedly last week.

The candidate of hope and change has now become a president of fear and doubt. This is hampering the economy and the American people's sense of security.

Legislative battles sometimes produce unlikely victims. After clashing with Republicans for months, Democrats appear poised to win a major partisan victory on health care. 

A couple of weeks ago, amidst the prolonged drama surrounding Senate passage of the Democrats' health care bill, House Democrats unveiled another major policy initiative for 2010--a renewed effort to pass comprehensive immigration reform.

Democratic Rep. Parker Griffith of Alabama handed Republicans an early Christmas present this week, announcing on Tuesday he was switching parties and joining the GOP. And while President Obama's holiday wish list is still a state secret, hidden somewhere deep in the Oval Office, Mr. Parker's…

Many believe partisanship is a toxic compound--sludge that fouls the gears of legislative progress in Congress. Around this time of the year in Washington--when to-do lists are long and remaining legislative calendar days short--overheated congressional sprockets (and tempers) start to smoke.

Drenched in crocodile tears, many in the pundit class now portray the GOP as hopelessly divided by fringe groups and internal dissensions.

With news spreading today that Democrats may abandon the "public option" in the health care reform bill, Senate Republicans issued this analysis suggesting the new "cure" may be worse than the disease. Here's the text of a memo issued by the Senate Republican Policy Committee earlier this…

President Obama convenes a "jobs summit" at the White House today, as our nation faces its worst employment crisis in the last 25 years. In preparation, he should carefully read an article in the October edition of Trends magazine titled, America's Future: California vs. Texas.

Democrats in Congress may need redemption with voters next year. But can President Obama save them?

Congress as an institution will never win any popularity sweepstakes. More than any other branch of government, it's a forum for open, raucous, and partisan debate. And as a result, it also exposes the lack of consensus on many public policy questions. Yet as this recent Gallup poll finds, public…

The political collars continue to tighten around Blue Dogs and other Democrats representing Republican-leaning congressional districts. Recent election results in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as a bevy of new polls, all suggest these vulnerable lawmakers face an increasingly hostile environment…

Pundits and analysts are scratching their heads to explain Democratic defeats in Virginia and New Jersey last week, particularly examining what caused massive shifts toward the GOP among independent voters in those two states.

Press reports say President Obama didn't watch election returns on Tuesday. And while he didn't get any "3 a.m. phone calls" about the results, I am sure at some point he heard the results and was not too happy when he did.

In his book Nixonland: The Rise of a President and the Fracturing of America, historian Rick Perlstein argues the seeds of today's polarized politics were sown during the 1960s and 1970s. He traces the fault lines of contemporary controversies such as marriage, abortion, the environment, the role…

Democrats face a growing political crisis with federal spending and debt, a self-inflicted quandary they created in some obvious and non-obvious ways.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is one of the most well-known lawmakers in history. But will her notoriety help Democrats or swell Republican ranks next year?

In his State of the Union address a little over 13 years ago, Bill Clinton proclaimed "the era of big government" was over. After a year of butting heads with the new Republican majority in Congress, President Clinton signaled a willingness to change course and acknowledge the message voters sent…

Once the health care debate ends, President Obama faces another daunting challenge: curbing an unsustainable level of debt in the federal budget. This is more than next year's problem because the two issues are also linked in a non-obvious way. Due to how Congress addresses deficit reduction,…

The 2010 midterm elections are quickly approaching and congressional Democrats are already feeling some ominous symptoms. If history is any indicator, the prognosis promises only to get worse. The president's party nearly always loses seats in off-year elections--shedding 22 House seats on average…

Speaker Nancy Pelosi promised the most "honest, most open and most ethical Congress in history." Shouldn't an institution committed to those lofty ideals give its members the chance to read legislation before voting on it? We might find out the answer soon. A bipartisan effort is underway to force…

A familiar refrain haunts Virginia politics these days. Democrats in the Old Dominion are whistling their favorite number: Republican gubernatorial hopeful Bob McDonnell is--cue the scary tune--"too extreme for Virginia."

A gathering sense of unease is spreading across America. It's more than worries about the economy or jobs. Those have been around for a while and will no doubt persist.

President Obama's performance among young voters in 2008 was an electoral tour de force. He thumped his rival John McCain by 34 points (66 percent to 32 percent) among those 18 to 29 years old.

Gallup released a report yesterday highlighting a significant narrowing in the self-reported party identification gap since January. Democrats began the year with a 17-point advantage (52%-35%). Some of the spread back then reflected post-election Obama euphoria. Many like to be on the winning…

Summer is not the only thing sliding away. When Congress returns next week, Democratic leaders will get an earful of advice from rank-and-file members about how to stop their political slippage. But it's unclear whether much can be done. That's because independent voters are the catalyst behind…

President Obama's election campaign dazzled the political world with its use of the Internet as an electoral tool. Fundraising, voter communication, and citizen mobilization were just a few of the tactics that reached new levels of intensity, sophistication and success via the Internet. More than…

The case for divided government. Inclement political weather rocked President Obama and his party this summer. Falling poll numbers and growing voter misgivings open the door for big Republican gains in next year's midterm elections.

Can Obamacare withstand the August heat? When House Republican leader John Boehner left Washington less than two weeks ago, he predicted Democratic lawmakers would face a long, hot summer of discontent on health care with the folks back home. His prognosis now looks like a precise political CAT…

The Democrats' health-care overhaul stands at a critical juncture in Congress. With public opposition rising, President Obama faces some key strategic decisions to advance the bill through the legislative thicket.

What Obama could learn from Bush on health care. The Democrats' health-care overhaul stands at a critical juncture in Congress. With public opposition rising, President Obama faces some key strategic decisions to advance the bill through the legislative thicket.

House Republican Leader John Boehner has a new video, calling President Obama's "medical judgments" into question with a great soap opera tune in the background. Watch it here:

Gallup released some new polling today suggesting Democrats will face stiffer political challenges in 2010 than in the past two electoral cycles. Democrats currently hold a slight 50%-44% lead in the generic ballot ("if the election were held today, which party would you vote for"). But as Gallup…

Legislative proposals don't suffer massive heart attacks, but health care reform experienced some serious chest pains over the past couple of weeks. Part of the diagnosis for President Obama's signature policy initiative is straightforward: the transition from feel-good slogans to specific plans…

Channeling Woody Allen on Health Care For nearly two decades--and probably longer--Republicans lagged Democrats when it came to voter trust on health care. But for a variety of reasons, that deficit is easing.

Lots of interesting data from the ABC News/Washington Post poll today. Read a summary of the top line findings here. The four-month trend in the question below is probably producing a Rolaids moment for Obama. The overall results are troubling enough. But I suspect the numbers are even worse among…

Increasing the role of government during economic turmoil is not a novel concept. Some believe people are hungrier for an extra helping of Washington stew at times like this. And President Obama, along with Democrats in Congress, seem more than willing to serve it up.

Just when you thought Democrats might drive Republicans into Chapter 11, this survey released by Rasmussen last week shows major gains for Republicans on key electoral issues. The poll finds voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on eight of ten major electoral issues, a stunning turnaround…

Some political commentators label Barack Obama as America's first "urban president." As Quinnipiac University's Peter Brown explained in the Wall Street Journal last November, "Let's be clear: Urban is not meant as a euphemism for black or liberal, although the president-elect is both. Mr. Obama is…

Health care reform moves into high gear this month in Congress, as lawmakers move beyond slogans to concrete ideas. Accompanying the heightened legislative activity is a chorus of new surveys, studies and think tank analyses--all intended to underscore one point or another.

A recent Washington Post headline blared some unhappy news for the White House: "Obama Initiatives Hit Speed Bumps On Capitol Hill." Moving from popular campaign slogans like "change" to actual legislation is difficult. At one level, Obama understands this. "We've got a much longer journey to…

Democratic advocates of a government run health insurance option are touting a New York Times poll released over the weekend as more evidence of public support for their pet idea. In a front page article on Saturday, the paper blared this news based on its new survey: Americans overwhelmingly…

Government programs don't believe in heaven, but many seem to have eternal life. That federal initiatives grow old but never die is particularly significant today. Fueled by ideology and equipped with a large majority in Congress, President Obama and his allies on Capitol Hill are injecting…

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded like a fiscal Paul Revere last week, warning Congress about the dangers of an advancing army of debt.

Like most political reforms, the Obama administration's attempt to clean up lobbying is beset with unintended consequences. The president's policies are producing an explosion in interest-group activity, and much of the growth is taking place outside the scope of federal disclosure and other…

When pundits talk about religion and politics they usually include obligatory references to Republican ties to the "religious right." Based on recent history, there's some justification for the connection. John McCain won "born again" white voters 74%-24% in 2008, and George W. Bush prevailed with…

Is all the talk among conservatives and Republicans about the dangers of the mounting federal debt starting to get some traction? A Rasmussen poll suggests that it is: Support for health care reform has slipped slightly as more voters think President Obama should work harder on his promise to cut…

Beverly Hills and the Appalachian Mountains don't have a lot in common--geographically, culturally or politically. One region produces a lot of coal to keep people warm and fuels American industry; the other is the home of Hollywood and generates, well . . . a lot of hot air. That's one reason why…

If you're a Republican you may want to stop reading right now - or at least don't let the kids see this! Gallup issued a new report yesterday tabulating changes in party identification across a host of subgroups between 2001 and 2009. The results? The political equivalent of a car wreck.…

New Jersey voters could witness a real slugfest this November in the state's gubernatorial election. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Corzine is facing stiff competition from Republican Chris Christie, according to a new Rasmussen poll released last week. Looking behind the numbers suggests the…

Capitol Hill insiders often use the phrase "kick the can" to describe legislative procrastination. Can't fix a problem? No worries. Leave it to the next Congress. And on thorny issues, where consensus is elusive, lawmakers do a lot of kicking.

Senator Arlen Specter's party switch last week rekindled the long-smoldering debate about the Republican party's future. For many, his high-profile defection is more evidence that the GOP is destined for a fiery demise. It's part of what Real Clear Politics writer Jay Cost describes as "the GOP is…

Before California Rep. Darrell Issa came to Congress, he founded a company called Directed Electronics, whose most well-known product was the Viper car alarm system. Turns out securing automobiles may be the least of Issa's talents. As the senior Republican on the House Oversight and Government…

Several data points suggest appointed Colorado senator Michael Bennet is headed for some rough political sledding as he approaches his first statewide election next year. Bennet was appointed by the state's Democratic governor to fill the seat vacated when President Obama picked Colorado senator…

It's no surprise that "change-minded" Democrats are mute on the issue of transforming the so-called toxic effect of money in politics. Since Democrats now have an overall cash advantage, why alter the game?

Barack Obama tied down a series of big legislative victories in his first few months in office--an expanded health-care program for kids, massive economic stimulus legislation, and substantially increased funding for this year's federal budget. Yet ironically these notches in his accomplishment…

Despite President Obama's preference for Washington-based solutions to everything that worries Americans, some believe there are alternatives. President Reagan in the 1980s, and congressional Republicans in the 1990s, promoted the devolution of money, power and influence out of Washington and…

Big shifts among independent voters toward Democrats caused Republicans to lose the majority in Congress in 2006 and then shed even more seats in the House and Senate in 2008. Some argue these trends presage a permanent GOP congressional minority--or maybe even signal Republicans are on a path…

Pew released a poll last week showing the partisan gap in President Obama's approval numbers is the largest in modern history. Like many recent surveys, Pew finds Obama's overall approval rating at 59 percent. But unpacking those numbers demonstrates the largest variability among self-identified…

A little less than a year ago, I participated in a meeting in Washington, D.C., with some prominent political analysts forecasting the 2008 election. One topic focused on trends in the youth vote. For Republicans, the patterns were ominous. George W. Bush lost to John Kerry among 18-29-year-olds by…

Tuesday night President Obama appeared undeterred by the consequences of debt and long-term deficits in his budget, arguing his fiscal "investments" are inseparable from the economic recovery. In coming months, however, messages from the bond market and foreign investors may change his tune.…

This new poll released by Zogby showing President Obama's approval rating dropping to around 50 percent has caused quite a stir in the last day or so. The Boston Herald's Joe Dwinell caught wind of the new survey and wrote before it was released: The honeymoon is over, a national poll will signal…

A new Gallup poll released last week should send cold chills up the spines of those promoting global warming legislation. For the first time in Gallup's 25-years of asking Americans about the trade-off between environmental protection and economic growth, a majority says the economy should be a the…

Over the past two weeks, I've witnessed road rage on three separate occasions. Curiously, the incidents had several things in common. First, each perpetrator was a white woman in the 18-29-year-old demographic, infatuated with the sound of her own horn. Second, they each drove a car that probably…

NPR released a new bipartisan poll today conducted by Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Glen Bolger. The survey's congressional generic ballot results are perhaps the most interesting finding, where Democrats have slipped from a double-digit lead in October 2006 (51 percent to 40 percent) to a…

"You've got to give it all you can, that first year," the president told a senior advisor. "Doesn't matter what kind of majority you come in with. You've got just one year when they treat you right." President Obama, however, did not utter these words of wisdom to Rahm Emanuel or David Axelrod last…

President Obama has embarked on one of the most audacious experiments in American political history. He's trying to expand support among America's broad middle class through new programmatic appeals, while paying for this new largesse by boosting taxes on "the wealthy"--those individuals who earn…

Rasmussen has released a poll that finds a plurality of voters believe health care reform should be delayed until the economy improves: President Obama told the nation last week that health care reform is one of the top three priorities of his administration, but 49% of U.S. voters say the…

CONGRESSIONAL SPECIAL ELECTIONS don't normally generate much national buzz. But the race to fill the House seat previously held by New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand might be an exception. The election in the state's 20th Congressional District--now scheduled for March 31--pits New York Assembly…

Gallup has evaluated first-month job approval for U.S. presidents going back to Richard Nixon. A few points deserve note. First, Obama's 63 percent approval level is about the same as the average of all presidents (62 percent) going back to 1968 during their first month in office. Barack Obama's…

ILLINOIS CONGRESSMAN Mark Kirk wants to take a bite out of suburban crime. And in doing so, he also hopes to curb the growing Democratic advantage on some political turf Republicans used to dominate. Last week Kirk unveiled a list of the "Top 10 Most Wanted Gang Members" in Lake County, Illinois, a…

As House Democrats set their sights on producing a new energy and climate change bill by Memorial Day, voters tell Rasmussen they support increasing supply versus reducing demand by about a two-to-one margin. When asked, "Which is more important, finding new sources of energy or reducing the amount…

Campaigns are generous forums. They allow politicians to make claims difficult to refute. Only the most coldhearted could oppose more hope, change and bipartisanship.

In a new poll released today, Rasmussen reports 62% of voters want the stimulus bill to include more tax cuts and less spending. These results are consistent with a CBS poll released last week. Rasmussen writes: With the Senate poised to vote Tuesday on an $827-billion version of the economic…

"CONGRESS IS LIKE A whiskey drinker," President Lyndon Johnson once observed. "You can put an awful lot of whiskey into a man if you just let him sip it," he said. "But if you try to force the whole bottle down his throat at one time, he'll throw it up."

Republican pollster and communications strategist Steve Lombardo weighed-in recently on a couple interesting questions related to the Bush presidency. First, Lombardo argues that the 43rd president's approval is what I would describe as "term dependent." And second, while a high percentage of…

Like any new president, Barack Obama needs some early legislative victories. And he started down that path last night with House passage, by a vote of 244-188, of his economic stimulus bill--albeit without any support from the Republicans.

All House Republicans on the Appropriations Committee voted against the "stimulus bill" reported out of their panel last week. This portion of the stimulus legislation will be combined with the tax provisions (reported from the Ways and Means Committee last week also on a party-line vote, with all…

I believe the folks over at The Democratic Strategist write some of the most insightful analyses of contemporary American politics. Ed Kilgore's recent post on Obama and Values-Based messaging continues that tradition. Many conservative pundits and Republican activists criticized President Obama…

President Barack Obama's presidential campaign set new standards for success in fundraising, voter mobilization, and Internet political savvy.

During the last presidential campaign, some believed conservative Republicans' opposition to comprehensive immigration reform turned off Hispanic voters toward the GOP. But this new survey from Pew suggests the issue ranks a little lower in the minds of Latinos than suggested by conventional…

After counting all the ballots, the 2008 election produced record year for voter turnout. Many believe president-elect Barack Obama's candidacy was solely responsible for producing the boost. He generated significant enthusiasm among supporters and sent a thrill up the leg of many members of the…

Pew Research reports more bad news for the struggling traditional newspaper business. According to a survey released last month, the Internet overtook newspapers for the first time in 2008 as the main source of domestic and international news. Forty percent of Americans responded that the Internet…

When the Democrats captured the majority in Congress two years ago, some of their boosters in the media like Joe Klein predicted an outbreak of "centrism." Red State Democrats would ease their party to the middle and end the era of extreme partisan polarization. Back then Klein wrote a Time cover…

President Bush approved a short-term bridge loan to Detroit on Friday averting a pre-New Year's bankruptcy for one or more of the auto companies. But the White House action also kicked the can to the Obama administration to figure out a longer-term solution. Many national polling organizations have…

According to Pew Research, nearly one out of four Americans under 40 has a tattoo. The new poll finds 36% in the 18-25 age group and 40% of folks age 26-40 sport this form of "self expression." Pew writes this: Gen Nexters, Americans in the 18-25 age bracket, are not afraid to express themselves…

George Washington University political scientist Henry Farrell posts this item today reporting on a conference he recently attended at Harvard about the political applications of the Internet in the 2008 campaign. Farrell includes some comments from Obama campaign representatives who note that…

Rasmussen released a poll yesterday gauging a head-to-head match-up between Republican incumbent Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter and Democrat Chris Matthews, host of MSNBC's Hardball. The survey of 500 registered voters in the state shows Specter leading by a slim 46 percent to 43 percent…

A recent Pew Research report reinforces other polling on American political ideology, but it also reveals some interesting twists in public opinion. First, as the 2008 exit polls demonstrated, Republicans' problems this year had more to do with fewer voters self-identifying with the GOP than a…

Eighteen to twenty-nine-year-old turnout did not live up to all the pre-election hype. According to CNN exit polls, the proportion of voters under 30 increased by about 1 percent nationally--from 17 percent of the electorate in 2004 to 18 percent this year. Yet even if their share of the electorate…

This morning Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and Senator Norm Coleman conducted a conference call to review the latest information on the Coleman/Franken Senate race in Minnesota. Here are the highlights of the call: The recount began yesterday. Counties will continue their work over the…

Rasmussen released results of a new national poll yesterday showing Americans put more faith in the concept of free market capitalism than they do in our national leaders' ability to apply it. According to the poll: Forty-four percent (44%) of Americans agree with President Bush's declaration last…

This chart from a recent Pew report about the youth vote is fascinating. We've all seen the numbers on the growing Obama and Democratic edge among voters under 30 repeated ad nauseam. But it's interesting how closely various subgroups of voters over 30 divided. 2008 would have been a nail biter…

We all know by now that President-elect Obama improved his performance among a host of voter subgroups compared to John Kerry four years ago. Political Scientist Charles Franklin arrays the change in this interesting chart that displays how well Obama did and how far McCain slipped among key…

Don't think Republicans are the only ones gnashing their teeth about their party's future. Democrats are also debating the meaning of the 2008 election and where they go from here to consolidate and expand their gains. (True, their debates are still under the heavy influence of Dom Perignon). One…

The 2008 campaign produced a record number of surveys, and it turns out that most of the major public polls were pretty accurate. That's the assessment of Fordham political scientist Costas Panagopoulos, who writes: On average, pre-election polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a…

Turnout increased by over 10 million people compared to 2004, according to preliminary estimates by political scientist Michael McDonald at George Mason University. McDonald posts a lot of interesting data about voting levels on his website here. Some argued that because 2004 generated such high…

Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com has some good advice about exit polls. Why hasn't any information about preliminary results been floating around in emails and on blogs like in years past? Following a lot of criticism about early leaks in 2004, the network consortium that conducts the exits polls…

Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com has some good advice about exit polls. Why hasn't any information about preliminary results been floating around in emails and on blogs like in years past? Following a lot of criticism about early leaks in 2004, the network consortium that conducts the exits polls…

I'm not a fan of campaign finance "reform." I believe it always results in unintended consequences--usually worse than the status quo. But Democrats have changed directions so quickly on the issue, the party may have to issue neck braces to manage their strained principles. Look, I get it. The…

The McCain campaign's high command conducted a conference call this morning and communicated a strong, upbeat message. Campaign manager Rick Davis kicked things off by predicting we'll see "the greatest comeback since John McCain won the New Hampshire primary." Davis saw "gains in all the…

While the U.S. economy's declining, national polling is a growth industry. Karl Rove noted on last week's Fox News Sunday that the number of national polls released in October 2008 compared to the same month in 2004 grew by 300 percent (55 national polls were release October 1-23, 2004, compared to…

Two new polls in closely watched Senate races deserve note. First, in Alaska, Rasmussen released its first results post conviction in the Stevens/Begich race. Stevens now trails by 8 points. The shift merits mention because, yesterday--before adding this poll into the mix--the Real Clear Politics…

Can Democrats reach a filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate? State level polling averages reported in this morning's Real Clear Politics (RCP) reveal that the road to sixty votes--while not impossible--looks pretty tough for the Democrats. But the numbers also show little margin of error for…

House Republican Leader John Boehner circulated a memo to all Republican House members and candidates this weekend urging them to get behind a new economic recovery plan he will unveil today. Boehner writes this in the memo: Pelosi has declared that Congress will pass a $300 billion "stimulus"…

I found this article by Shailagh Murray in the Sunday Washington Post curious. It argues the number of people who say they want the same party to control both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue has reached "new highs." Murray writes: The percentage of Americans saying they preferred that the same party…

Early voting has been on the rise. Gallup released a new report today that notes 11% of registered voters have already cast their ballots, with another 19% saying they still plan to vote before Election Day. If 30% vote early it will represent a 7-point increase over the 22% who cast early ballots…

Given the hype of the Obama candidacy and his campaign's massive mobilization effort, will America's youth deliver for "The One?" Millennial voters certainly have a lot of encouragement this year. As Tom Edmunds points out in this recent piece in Politics magazine: Judging from all the hype, you'd…

We used to have "tax and spend" liberals. Today we have tax "as" spend politicians. The Tax Foundation argues Washington policymakers increasingly use tax policy instead of direct spending to channel government money to favored groups and causes. Scott A. Hodge of the Foundation writes: Over the…

I still remember when parents worried their kids watched too much TV. Never mind. The Internet solved that problem. Pew released an interesting new report this week called "Networked Families," exploring how technology affects family communications and lifestyles. It looks at how the proliferation…

A growing number of Americans now cast their ballots early. In 2004, more than one out of five voters (22.5%) cast ballots either through absentee or some other form of early voting. That number is expected to rise even more in 2008--maybe as high as 25% nationally, and in some states, even higher.…

Barack Obama has improved his standing among a variety of voter subgroups since mid-September based on Gallup's recent polling. I noted his positive move among seniors in a post last week. The latest subgroup analysis released from Gallup reveals another interesting shift: a notable swing toward…

Survey USA now reports the number of people who say they have "already voted" in many of its pre-election polls. This is an important tool to gauge how the presidential race is unfolding among those who have already cast their ballots. Nate Silver looks at these results from five states (NC, GA,…

Gallup released a report today highlighting some of its recent polling on issues and candidate evaluations before tonight's final presidential debate. The stability of certain dimensions of the race is striking, given the big shift in the horserace polling numbers in the last few weeks. For…

John McCain's slip in the polls over the past few weeks is creating a drag for down-ticket Republican House candidates across the country. GOP congressional losses could top twenty or more, depending on how the political environment settles in the next couple of weeks. Jim Ellis, who writes for a…

Three big questions about the accuracy of polling regularly resurface during the 2008 campaign, according to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com. Expect to hear more about each of these in the weeks ahead. 1. Will the growth of the "cell-phone-only" voter bias polls against Obama? Most surveys sample…

Amidst all the talk about the presidential race, we sometimes forget about the governors--the chief executives in laboratories of democracy, and major players in the post-2010 congressional redistricting. One reason for the lack of attention is the relatively small number of races in '08. This year…

Since August, Gallup has presented its tracking polls broken down by voter subgroups. With two months of data collected, some interesting trends emerge. One of the most troubling for the McCain campaign is the shift among seniors. McCain supporters had hoped older voters would offset his deficit…

As I wrote yesterday, opponents of John McCain are misrepresenting his health care plan. Some do so deliberately, like the Obama ads that only tell half the story, as I argued in my post. Others, I assume, are done out of pure ignorance, like this story by Froma Harrop posted on the Rasmussen…

The Obama campaign stepped up its rhetoric against the McCain health care plan over the last week with a new series of ads. But leave it to Paul Krugman at the New York Times to confuse, twist and misrepresent the McCain proposal. In today's column, "Health Care Destruction," Krugman writes: Mr.…

Many independent women are still up for grabs in the last month of the election, making this cohort a critical target group for both campaigns. According to a new Gallup report released today, Obama draws significant support among some in the independent woman subgroup: • those with no religious…

Compared to self-identified partisans, independent voters march more to the beat of pop culture and the dominant news narrative. They pay closer attention to Tina Fey's weekly lampooning of Sarah Palin than the speeches or policy positions of the presidential campaigns. Independents are also among…

North Carolina, a traditional Republican stronghold, took a sharp turn toward Barack Obama in the last several weeks. It's no secret GOP political strategists had sought to lock up the Tar Heel state early--it's voted Republican in 9 out of the past 10 presidential elections (Jimmy Carter, the last…

The presidential race remains highly volatile. A recent Diageo/Hotline poll found 23 percent of voters are undecided and another 9 percent saying they still might change their minds. Now, that doesn't mean over a third of the electorate are truly swing voters. Partisans in this crowd will probably…

Post-debate "snap" surveys aimed at determining a "winner" are in vogue given the proliferation of polling by media outlets this election cycle. But what do the results really mean for the November election? Pollster.com summarizes the five post-debate polls (and a focus group) from last Friday…

Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center argues 2008 is the most unpredictable election in decades. "In every recent election the public has accurately picked the winner by this time in the cycle," he wrote yesterday. And as the chart below demonstrates, since 1992, by pretty healthy…

Mark Blumenthal updates his battleground state poll of polls this morning. Like Real Clear Politics, he loads new surveys in his modeling every day to produce a new "average" result by state. According to Blumenthal, 12 states now fall into the "toss-up" category: Four show a statistically…

McCain-Palin campaign lead pollster, Bill McInturff, and Director of Strategy, Sarah Simmons, conducted a conference call this morning in response to the ABC News/Washington Post poll released today showing Barack Obama opening up a 52 percent to 43 percent lead over John McCain. McInturff sees the…

This Friday night John McCain and Barack Obama meet in the first presidential general election debate in Oxford, Mississippi. The subject: national security. The stakes are high for both camps--or are they? Political scientist Tom Holbrook argues that despite all the emphasis on the debates, these…

Pollster Steve Lombardo makes some noteworthy points about the presidential race in a post yesterday at Pollster.com. First, he argues the contest is "on the verge of becoming a single-issue election." Lombardo cites the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll showing "economy and jobs" (48%)…

Remember that sneaking suspicion the media was swooning over Barack Obama this summer? Time magazine covers, coverage of Obama with Germans rediscovering their love for mass rallies, etc. Turns out, based on media mentions, the Democratic nominee did get a lot more attention. The chart below…

A new Pew survey demonstrates what many other national polls have revealed in the last few days--the national horserace is about as tight as possible. The latest Pew research finds the race at a near dead heat of 46 percent Obama and 44 percent McCain, nearly identical to the pre-convention 46…

The Democracy Corps (James Carville and Stan Greenberg) released a new poll this week assessing the state of the presidential campaign following the two parties' conventions. The survey reports results from both a national sample and a sub-sample of likely voters in over a dozen battleground…

Some Democrats, such as former Clinton White House official Bill Galston, are going public with their concerns about the trajectory of the Obama campaign. This "open letter" posted at The Democratic Strategist blog articulates a growing worry among some that Obama is on a path to "losing the…

In yesterday's Washington Post article by Dan Balz and Peter Slevin, Obama's chief strategist David Axlerod argued McCain's post-convention bounce in the national polls was driven by the Republican ticket's surge in red states. "I think one of the things driving the national polls is that the red…

The Obama campaign continues to struggle gaining significant support among white working class voters. Ron Brownstein writes in his most recent piece: In the Diageo/Hotline daily tracking survey this week, Obama was winning just 30 percent of white men without a college education, even lower than…

A senior Senate leadership aide asked me yesterday, "Is it cool to be a Republican again?" He was, of course, responding to the array of positive public opinion data released in the last week following the GOP convention. I'm sure most Americans rarely conflate "Republican" and "cool," but some…

I like to remind people that we don't elect presidents by national plebiscite. So don't overly obsess about national polls. National surveys have a place - they can reveal significant patterns on measures such as enthusiasm and trends among key voter groups, such as undecided Americans. But in the…

Recent polling reveals a predictable partisan reaction to Sarah Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee - Republicans swooned, Democrats were less impressed, with "independents" somewhere in between. Sharp political divisions among self-identified partisans are not surprising. But a closer look…

The new ABC/Washington Post poll News must be generating some smiles in the McCain camp. Strategists for the Arizona Senator's campaign have worked hard, looking for ways to boost his support among women. Boosting support among women - particularly white, suburbanites has challenged the campaign…

John McCain and Barack Obama face different challenges when it comes to winning swing voters - a fickle, and, as the election nears, shrinking group of Americans. Jeffrey Jones, one of the Gallup editors, wrote last week that the number of swing voters is declining - an expected pattern now that…

St. Paul It was the most poignant moment of the convention so far. At exactly 9:55 pm CST last night, Senator Joe Lieberman stood before thousands of Republicans and requested their indulgence. Speaking directly into the cameras, he asked independents and open-minded Democrats watching the…

St. Paul John McCain needs to win back "disaffected Republicans" if he hopes to be the next president of the United States. This voter group supported President Bush in 2000 and 2004 but since then has grown disenchanted with the party brand over issues like earmarks, spending, and managerial…

St. Paul The GOP convention begins this afternoon amid grave concern for the citizens of the Gulf Coast. And while the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul Minnesota looks much like conventions of the past, this party gathering is like no other. Convention planners spent most of the day Sunday undoing…

St. Paul Republicans gathering early here in St. Paul are ecstatic about the Palin pick and--not surprisingly--less than blown away by the Obama speech in Denver last night. I talked to some experienced Republican operatives this morning and they shared thoughts on both topics. First, on Obama last…

Minneapolis I'm sitting in the Xcel Energy Center watching the birth of a convention hall--a cacophony of hammers, drills and "testing one, two, three" suggests the Republican Convention is just days away. The media presence in these halls is always impressive. Modern conventions are, after all,…

Minneapolis While Democrats prepare for night three in Denver, Republicans kicked off their pre-convention week in Minnesota yesterday. And with the recent polling and the media spending the first half of the Democratic convention debating whether Obama can win over Clinton supporters, the…

Senator Joe Biden's selection as the Vice Presidential nominee creates a short-term challenge for the Obama campaign: how to manage disgruntled Clinton supporters at the convention. Disappointment among some women voters, of course, could plague the Illinois Senator for the duration of the…

By every indicator, Barack Obama should be doing much better in the polls. Why isn't he? Jeff Jones, who helps write the Editors' Blog over at Gallup, believes that it's not that Obama is underperforming, but that analysts' expectations for the Democrat are too high given no incumbent is running:…

Political conventions focus public attention on presidential politics like few other events. So it's not surprising that these quadrennial confabs also can produce significant movement in public opinion. Political scientist Tom Holbrook provides a useful history of convention bounces in this blog…

Placing Senator Clinton's name into "nomination" at next week's Democratic convention has generated considerable confusion in the media and even among political pros. Do party rules technically require a formal "nomination" in order for delegates to vote for that person? Is there even a formal…

Pew released an interesting poll yesterday, documenting the anatomy of the tightening presidential race. Like other recent national polls, the overall the survey shows a near dead heat (Obama leads 46 percent to 43 percent among registered voters with a +/- 2.5% margin of error). But looking behind…

John McCain faces an uphill battle against Barack Obama in Pennsylvania. But the Arizona Senator's prospects could get a boost from an unlikely source: Several GOP House challengers are giving some liberal Democratic incumbents reasons to worry about their own electoral survival. Commentators argue…

On street corners across America, Democratic volunteers are feverishly trying to register young voters. Why? First, because this age cohort overwhelmingly supports Barack Obama. According to the latest Gallup poll (July 28-Aug 3) he leads McCain 56 percent to 35 percent among 18-29 year olds. And…

Religion is among the most powerful predictors of voting behavior in American elections. This pattern plays out again in the 2008 race for the White House. And while Democrats are working hard to appeal more to people of faith, a strong religious/political divide continues. For example, those who…

Whether it's the "Rat Pack" crooning for John F. Kennedy or Ludacris rapping for Obama, some entertainers like the stump as much as the stage. Call it an Entertainment Tonight/Electoral College fusion. So it was not a big surprise when savvy political strategist Paris Hilton - with the help of her…

No one doubts Obama gets loads of media exposure. Many would argue that's a good thing. But it turns out moderation really is a virtue - even when it comes to press coverage. Pew Research released this new survey yesterday suggesting that Obama's media coverage is beginning to wear on people. When…

House Republicans refuse to give up on their push for a comprehensive energy bill, including expanded domestic drilling options. It's important to put the emphasis on the word "comprehensive." Media shorthand often equates Republicans with a "drill only" approach. In reality, the GOP "all of the…

Blue Dog Democrats take popular, moderate-to-conservative positions in their districts, but back in Washington they play games and often side with the liberal Democratic leadership. Once in a while, some of them vote with the Republicans. But somehow enough of them stick with their party and the…

We see it every day in Congress. Lawmakers take popular positions back in their districts but somehow gridlock prevails in Washington. This pattern produced the "I hate Congress but love my Congressman" phenomenon. No group does this more effectively or consistently than the congressional "Blue…

Congress skipped town on Friday without passing comprehensive energy legislation or lifting the moratorium on offshore drilling. Despite Republican objections, Democratic congressional leaders opted for a five-week vacation rather than passing legislation to ease pain at the pump. But as Politico's…

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House Democrats pulled out all the stops to win a hard fought legislative victory yesterday - prevailing on a dramatic 213-212 nail-biter vote on the "adjournment resolution," authorizing a five-week summer recess. Congress sets dates for its "district work periods", through these normally routine…

I noted yesterday that opinions in the presidential race are more fluid and softer than usual--resulting in a high degree of variability and volatility in the polls. Today, Rasmussen released this new survey that further underscores that point. According to its most recent poll, about twice as many…

Confused about the array of contradictory polls released in the last few days? You're not alone. First there was the 8-point Obama advantage in Gallup tracking. But wait: Then there was the 4-point McCain lead in another Gallup poll released the same day. What gives? Mark Blumenthal does a nice job…

This week in Washington, House Republicans will try to produce a little political heat from rising energy prices. They will attempt to block Congress from adjourning for its summer recess if Democrats don't allow an up or down vote on the GOP energy plan, which includes expanded drilling in the…

Republican political strategists worry that a weak economy will hurt John McCain this November. This fear makes intuitive sense, but is there any data to back it up? My favorite blog written by academics recently addressed this question. University of Houston professor Noah Kaplan notes some…

Americans face gas price shock every time they fill up the tank. So it's not a great time to advocate other radical changes that will further drive up energy costs. That's the conclusion of this new Rasmussen poll analyzing opinion about Al Gore's new proposal to shift electricity production to…

Money matters when it comes to winning elections. And races for the U.S. House are no exception. That's why Washington campaign strategists and the pundit community are abuzz about the recently released second quarter fundraising numbers posted for congressional races. Jim Ellis, who runs an…

Closing the "enthusiasm gap" is John McCain's major hurdle in the next several months according to Republican leaders and political strategists I talked to last week. Barack Obama's supporters are more fired-up, confident, and interested. CBS News polling director Kathleen Frackovic wrote a piece…

Perhaps more than any recent election, watching how women vote this year is a critical variable in predicting the outcome of the presidential race. First, female voters comprise a growing share of the U.S. electorate. Men and women no longer represent roughly equal parts of the voting universe as…

The New Yorker cover controversy revealed the humorless side of the Obama campaign and produced a good laugh from Jon Stewart among others. But the cover also raises another interesting question. What religion do Americans think Obama practices? And do those views--accurate or not--shape their…

If you look behind the numbers of most recent presidential polls, you'll find an interesting "age gap." Obama consistently does very well among Americans under 30 while McCain wins the 60 and older crowd. Chris Cillizza notes: Another interesting finding from the Newsweek poll is that there seems…

Barack Obama's journey to redefinition is filled with potholes. The hand-wringing among those on the left (see this piece by Matt Stoller) is one such bump in the road. Then there's the polling evidence. Rasmussen reported on Saturday that the presidential race, based on their tracking, is now…

Pew issued a report yesterday with new numbers on the presidential race that underscore some themes likely to endure throughout the campaign. A few points deserve special note. First, Pew highlights a point I expect we'll hear repeatedly for the balance of the campaign: This is no Tweedle Dee and…

Frank Newport, Gallup's head of polling, includes two items about religion and politics in his list of "Five Things You May Not Know About the Presidential Election." The first emphasizes the enduring importance of the Catholic vote in winning the White House. In the most recent Gallup poll, 47…

Brian Schaffner--who writes an insightful and creative blog at the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies--explores the relationship between certain cultural/consumer preferences and presidential vote choice in this recent post. According to Schaffner, many pundits and academics believe…

Gallup issued this interesting historical analysis, reviewing the predictive power of its July polls on November presidential results. Overall, their numbers project accurately in more than half of the elections. In nine out of the last 15 contests for the White House, the candidate leading in July…

For anyone interested in the political consequences of blogging, this paper by George Washington University political scientists Henry Farrell, Eric Lawrence, and John Sides is worth a read. Using a very large sample of 16,145 Americans who use blogs, drawn from the 2006 Cooperative Congressional…

A couple people inquired about this piece I posted yesterday, forecasting potential electoral outcomes in U.S. House races this fall. I reported on a recent analysis by Jim Ellis of PRIsm Information Network. Ellis notes that only 18 House races fall into the "up for grabs" category that could go…

With over four months until the November election, handicapping 435 House races is a daunting task. But Jim Ellis, a seasoned political operative and electoral analyst who runs the PRIsm Information Network, puts the November landscape into clearer focus. According to Ellis, 228 House seats fall…

Gallup posts new data this morning on the congressional generic ballot that deserves a look. If anything, I'm a little surprised the numbers aren't worse for the Republicans, given shifts in party identification in the past several years toward Democrats and President Bush's approval level. A few…

A new Pew Research study on trends in online political news consumption shows that only 40 percent of all adults report getting news or information about the election via the Internet. Forty percent? Imagine that. Some Americans aren't hunched over a computer screen waiting for the next polling…

While consumer confidence continues to plummet, a new report from Pew Research shows that baby boomers appear most affected by the gathering economic gloom. America's baby boomers are in a collective funk. Members of the large generation born from 1946 to 1964 are more downbeat about their lives…

In a close election, even small changes in turnout compared to 2004 could tip the balance in several battleground states and determine the next occupant of the White House. The Los Angeles Times featured an insightful piece by Peter Walsten reporting how the Obama campaign and its outside allies…

This new Rasmussen poll underscores the public's skepticism and ambivalence about free trade in the context of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The Rasmussen report on free trade also includes numbers from another recent poll that tell the same story: Voters--in a separate Rasmussen Reports…

Many pundits believe that Barack Obama could get a much needed boost with working class white voters by selecting Jim Webb as his running mate. But American University political scientist Brian Schaffner produces an interesting graph comparing how the Virginia Senator performed compared to other…

Yesterday's Washington Post polling article included some comparisons between Washington Post surveys on the Bush/Kerry race in June 2004 and the paper's most recent survey on the McCain/Obama contest. For example, the 2004 survey found Democratic Senator John Kerry leading President Bush in June…

Tomorrow the House Appropriations Committee will consider an amendment that lets states decide whether to allow energy exploration off their coasts. Some states would allow drilling if given the option, others might not. But if this measure became law, it could reduce gasoline prices and boost…

Both the McCain and Obama camps know Hispanic voters represent a key swing constituency in 2008. And the two presidential campaigns will pull out all the stops to persuade these voters. R. Michael Alvarez and Jonathan Nagler recently offered a thoughtful analysis--from the Democratic…

As Samantha noted earlier today, Barack Obama doesn't seem too concerned about the rise in the price of gasoline. Apparently the presumptive nominee's brethren in Congress don't either. After nearly two years in power, the House majority appears more interested in toeing the line of environmental…

Gallup's Frank Newport wrote yesterday about John McCain's support among religious voters. Newport argues that Bob Novak's article in Monday's Washington Post and recent New York Times reporting are based largely on anecdotes. He begins with this observation: News reports in recent days have probed…

Congressional Republicans will unveil a new economic agenda tomorrow. The plan promises to lower gas prices, put an immediate moratorium on earmarks, fix a broken tort system, stop taxes from spiking once the current tax cuts expire in 2010 and more. Republican Leader John Boehner previewed the…

Many expect a big Obama bump in the polls now that he's the presumptive nominee. Rasmussen reports a mini-jump in its latest tracking poll released today, as Dean Barnett notes below. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that Barack Obama attracts 48 percent of…

Does Obama have a problem with women voters? Will disaffected Clinton voters jump ship and support McCain? American University political scientist Brian Schaffner writes this today, offering some advice about how Obama can boost his numbers among women. Schaffner argues that in order to win, Obama…

This new report on citizen approval of political parties is hardly earth-shattering. The study finds that Democrats hold a significant lead among adults on overall favorability (57 percent compared to 39 percent for Republicans). But the end of the study contains more interesting--and…

For those interested in a quick and easy-to-use dynamic graphic showing how different groups voted in Democratic primary states, check this out. Choose a group--men, women, black, white, income level etc.--and see how the vote breakdown changes. It's a very impressive visual display of the current…

Republicans continue to look like the "brand" on the run. Rasmussen posts this piece documenting further decline since January in the number of self-identified Republicans and continued growth among Democrats. Their May survey finds 31.6 percent identifying as Republicans, 41.4 percent as Democrats…

Rasmussen has released this new poll that should make Team McCain pretty happy. In a survey of 800 likely voters, McCain is trusted more than Obama in four key areas: the economy (47 to 41 percent), national security (53 to 31 percent) and Iraq (49 to 37 percent), and taxes (44 to 38 percent).…

I guess Scott McClellan won't be brunching with Bob and Liddy Dole this Sunday. Jonathan Martin at the Politico got a copy of an email the former Senate Majority Leader and presidential candidate sent to McClellan yesterday. Dole does not skimp on his famous biting rhetoric when he smells…

Alicia Kolar Prevost, who writes for the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies blog, notes that 366 Democratic delegates could be at stake tomorrow as the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) meets to decide the fate of the Michigan and Florida delegations.…

It has been 20 years since a Republican won Michigan in a presidential election. George H. W. Bush carried the state over Michael Dukakis in 1988, but Democrats prevailed in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004. Most agree Barack Obama cannot win the White House without carrying the state's 17 electoral…

Gallup recently released the results of a survey showing a large partisan "confidence gap" in terms of who will win in November. The study finds 61% of Democrats are confident (37% not confident) their candidate will prevail this fall. Among the Republicans, only 39% are confident the GOP will win…

This is one of those times when I like to remind readers that "early Senate polls don't matter." Nevertheless, these numbers showing Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell trailing in his reelection bid will likely get a lot of attention among lefty blogs in the next few days. It shows the…

For political junkies, it may be a finding against interest, but this recent Pew report demonstrates that the content of cable news coverage and Americans' news interest are out of sync. Media is heavily focused on the 2008 presidential race, devoting nearly 40% of its total coverage to this topic…

This new Zogby poll is interesting for a couple reasons. First, as I've suggested in earlier posts, Obama's numbers will creep up in head-to-head match-ups as it becomes clear to people he's the nominee, giving Clinton partisans some time to reassess--and conduct anger management therapy. This poll…

Gallup has this poll out today with some interesting news on both race and gender in the presidential contest. Not surprisingly, Gallup's most recent poll shows Obama's continued weakness among white voters, not only overall, but within certain key subgroups. For example, the survey shows McCain…

Speculation about disgruntled Clinton Democrats defecting to McCain has been one of the subtexts of this very long primary season. I don't buy it. I think Obama will eventually unify the self-identified Democrats and score big margins among these partisans in November. Independents may be a…

Brian Schaffner points out a potential oddity in this week's Oregon primary. The state has a vote-by-mail system, so while the election's tomorrow, many of Oregon's citizens have already voted. That makes polling a little more challenging. So here's the interesting twist in two recent surveys.…

Paul Maslin, a respected Democratic pollster who worked for Howard Dean in 2004 and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson's presidential campaign in 2008, posts this thoughtful analysis about how Barack Obama gets the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House in November. Maslin's analysis…

I never knew Republicans had so many strategists. It's hard to avoid the free advice crowd today in Washington. Secret meetings, public meetings, secret meetings that become public -- if the GOP had a swimming pool, they could fill it with the perspiration from all the hand-wringing and sweaty…

Ronald Reagan ran against Washington in 1980, saying the federal government was "part of the problem, not the solution." He was responding to the public mood not long after Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech. The hapless one-term president from Georgia's handling of everything from hyperinflation, to…

Primary election enthusiasm doesn't guarantee general election wins. A general election win requires hard work, organization, and an effective primary follow-up plan to keep excitement stoked--and even then there are no sure things. This piece by Donald Lambro in yesterday's Washington Times sums…

House Republicans, who will unveil their "Change You Deserve" agenda later this week, released a memo today outlining their plan's broad principles and rationale. Also included in the memo were a set of legislative proposals called The American Families Agenda. Measures in the package include:…

Senate Republicans face a difficult electoral map this November--23 GOP seats up for reelection, compared to only 12 for Democrats. The open GOP seats in Virginia (which most consider already lost to former Democratic Governor Mark Warner), Colorado, and New Mexico look very challenging. Moreover,…

George Washington University political scientist John Sides believes the mainstream media hand wringing about whether Obama will unify the Democrats is without merit. Sides argues the exit polls are unreliable predictors of Democrats' ultimate behavior in November. And, he offers some research to…

Despite voting for Democrats in every White House race since 1984, Wisconsin is always competitive for both parties. For example, it went for Kerry over Bush in 2004 by a razor-thin 50%-49% margin. So there is no doubt the Badger state will be high on the target lists of both the McCain and Obama…

With the proliferation of public and private polling this election season, one needs a scorecard to keep them all straight -- both in terms of predictions and accountability. Last night's big winner in terms of accuracy -- at least in North Carolina -- was Zogby. He predicted a 14% Obama win in the…

You can view the CNN Indiana initial exit polls here. A couple interesting notes from the preliminary numbers. First, Clinton does very well among the late deciders (again) -- winning between 55%-60% of those who made up their minds either today or in the last few days. Second, huge racial divide.…

The public polls over the last several days show lots of variation in today's two primary states. As Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com points out, the North Carolina numbers find Obama leading anywhere between 4%-14%. The Indiana polls demonstrate even more variation. They find Obama leading by 2%…

North Carolina reports some demographic statistics on its early voting results, and American University political scientist Brain Schaffner has posted several short and interesting breakdowns over the past week, including the latest numbers from this weekend. Read his latest analysis here. A few…

It's not surprising that the Democratic primary campaign lacks sharp differences on policy issues. After all, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton--when it comes to substance--are both doctrinaire liberals. Most self-identified Democrats would agree with both candidates on the bulk of their platforms.…

Looking at one poll is sometimes dangerous. But several together--all pointing in the same direction--can tell a story. And for Barack Obama, this narrative is scary. Rasmussen, Gallup, and Fox released national polls in the last two days that break out this way: Gallup: Clinton 49%, Obama 45% Fox:…

Earlier this morning, House Republican Leader John Boehner gave this presentation to all of his colleagues in the House Republican Conference. Boehner's message is straightforward and sobering -- House Republicans have a tough road ahead, but with hard work and a few breaks they could have good…

Pew Research released a new survey yesterday titled "Gen Dems: The Party's Advantage Among Young Voters Widens," outlining a growing Democratic advantage with younger voters (age 18-29) in party identification. The report argues the shift in allegiance foreshadows even greater Democratic Party…

Earlier today I wrote that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton's hard fought campaign in Pennsylvania benefited John McCain in the Keystone state, based on the most recent polling. But the brutal primary fighting is also exposing broader weakness for the Illinois Senator in national surveys and…

An old political boss of mine liked to say, "Sometimes in the heat of battle you shoot some of your soldiers." I've seen his observation play out -- figuratively of course -- numerous times over the years. And now it looks like it happened again, as some electoral shrapnel landed on the Democrats…

Political pundits and the media will bestow a lot of attention on Minnesota this political season. Its Governor Tim Pawlenty is on John McCain's short list for vice president. Minneapolis-St. Paul is the site of the Republican Convention in November. And, it features one of the country's most…

Despite continuing to lag in pledged delegates, if Hillary can win the popular vote it would create a strong moral argument for boosting her superdelegate support and chances for the nomination. Even that seems like a heavy lift given the remaining primary schedule, but Jay Cost at Real Clear…

As I mentioned in my post this morning, I'm watching the late deciders tonight in Pennsylvania. The exit polls report 24% decided in the last week and Clinton won 56%-44% among those voters. Those are encouraging numbers for the Clinton camp. See the CBS exit poll here. ABC news pollster Gary…

Pennsylvania voters might produce a surprisingly close outcome in today's Democratic primary. The buzz in Washington from several Democratic operatives I talked to yesterday suggests Team Obama is fired up and ready to over perform. "They're putting out the word they won't win, but it will be…

Sometimes graphs convey a message more powerfully than words. University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientist Charles Franklin recently posted this plot of the "most important problem"--comparing the economy to the Iraq war. The visual representation of CBS News survey data is pretty dramatic.…

Advocates for causes ranging from Cancer to AIDS to animal kindness--and certainly presidential aspirants--love to engage celebrities on their behalf. Famous people hawking a cause or a candidate are thought to raise an issue's or office seeker's visibility and build support. But are celebrities…

It wasn't supposed to play out this way. Obama's new politics and electrifying campaign style would energize Democrats and help the party's down ticket candidates? Turns out Democrats may be too busy clinging to their guns and religion to get too excited about Obama's White House bid. His comments…

Senate Republicans face some tough electoral sledding in 2008. Right now the big question is not if the GOP numbers will fall below 49, but by how much. Rasmussen regularly conducts state level polling and the landscape looks increasingly challenging for Republicans. It starts with one open seat…

The middle class squeeze is in the news a lot these days and on the minds of elected officials. And since about half of Americans consider themselves part of this group, the squeeze is likely to have big political consequences. The Pew Research Center just released a new study, "Inside the Middle…

It's easy to lose sight of the dramatic shifts in the Democratic nomination contest that have occurred just since January. This new Gallup study provides some useful perspective on what a long strange trip it's been in the Clinton/Obama contest. Consider these moves in the polls in less than three…

Stephen Colbert fans know that Congressmen will appear on his Comedy Central show at their own political peril. Rep. Lynn A. Westmoreland (R-GA) for example, admitted to Colbert that he could only name three of the ten commandments and that he thought of himself as a "Georgia Peach." Not to be…

Barack Obama's success when it comes to web-based political tactics--especially fundraising--is well known. But as it turns out, it also takes some new media investments to generate those results. This chart compiled by Webguild paints a dramatic picture of differences between the Obama and Clinton…

The Senate is considering a bipartisan housing bailout bill, loaded with tax breaks, that seems destined for easy passage. But it's also guaranteed to meet stiff resistance in the House from fiscal hawks. The legislation aimed at helping ease the pain of the deflating housing market includes about…

This Insider Advantage survey from Pennsylvania shows Clinton's lead now cut to just two points (45%-43%)--continuing the Obama surge several of us have discussed in the last couple of days. While they don't report details on the sampling procedure, I assume those numbers are within the margin of…

This new Gallup poll asks an interesting open-ended question, probing why Americans say they oppose a particular candidate. It says something about the state of the campaign today, but also points to probable attack ads just over the horizon. When it comes to Obama, "inexperience" (39%) is by far…

Within the last week, Senators Casey (PA), Leahy (VT) and Klobuchar (MN)--all Democratic super delegates--either endorsed Barack Obama or urged Senator Clinton to drop out of the race. You can almost hear the sounds of the party thumbscrews tightening. And today's Rasmussen poll showing the…

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This Gallup report on Wednesday morning caused a few Democrats to lose their donuts. It found almost one out of three (28%) of Clinton supporters say they would support McCain if Obama were the nominee. Let's call them the Benedict Arnold Caucus. But who are these potential partisan turncoats? Are…

Brian Faughnan's here yesterday deserves some follow up and elaboration. What's most interesting about the "Obama Leaves Red State Democrats Cold" narrative is how it differs from the spin echoing in the halls of Congress. Over the past six months, many Democratic political "pros" (and Obama…

Are liberals poised to deliver a knockout blow to conservatives? Democratic strategist Stan Greenberg and his colleagues seem to think so, based on this recently issued report. The Greenberg/Quinlin/Rosner (GQR) study demonstrates continued Republican brand weakness, increased demand for more…

A Reverend Wright induced political backlash is underway in at least two key swing states, Ohio and Missouri, and has driven Obama's numbers down even more dramatically in Kentucky, according to Survey USA polling released yesterday. Last month, for example, Senator Obama led Senator McCain in Ohio…

A few weeks ago, The Democratic Strategist, a blog written by--you guessed it, Democratic strategists--featured a roundtable on swing voters. While all the comments of the veteran campaign operatives deserve a read, the piece by author and consultant Robert Creamer on the differences between…

How John McCain influences the Republican brand--or how it impacts him--over the next few months will provide some clues about the party's prospects in this fall's down ballot congressional races. The GOP continues to struggle with its overall image among voters. The party's standing in the generic…

While most recent national polls show a close contest in the general election between either McCain and Obama or McCain and Clinton, adding Ralph Nader into the mix boosts John McCain, at least according to the latest Zogby poll released over the weekend. In a prospective general election match-up,…

Pundits will ponder this question in great detail over the next several months. The Monkey Cage links to useful research on the issue and includes new data and preliminary insights from this year's exit polls. Dissatisfaction among those on the losing side represents one factor that could influence…

Several recently released national polls show a close general election contest between both McCain vs. Obama or McCain vs. Clinton (NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Gallup). For example, the NBC/Wall Street Journal head-to-head is Obama 47/McCain 44 and Clinton 47/McCain 45. Both results are best…

Global warming never polls very well compared to other issues, such as the economy or the Iraq war. But a new study shows it doesn't rank that high even compared to other environmental issues. Despite all the hoopla about global warming, it ranks below eight other environmental concerns and is even…

Racial polarization among Mississippi Democrats should come as no surprise to students of southern politics. But the just-released exit polls show especially sharp differences in the Clinton versus Obama margins between whites and blacks. Among white voters, Clinton won 72 percent to 27 percent,…

Republicans performed poorly among independents in the 2006 elections, a major factor contributing to losing the congressional majority. Some exit polls showed a decline of at least 18 percent in GOP support among these voters between the 2004 and 2006 contests. So independents represent a key…

A new survey shows that Democrats are divided on the question of ending their nomination madness and creating an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket. According to a Gallup poll released today, 51 percent of Democrats overall favor Clinton and Obama settling their differences and forming a "dream…

Here's one for the unconventional wisdom files. Women voters supercharge Hillary Clinton's engine on the road to the nomination, right? The hi-octane boost she gets from female voters is part of this campaign's regular narrative. So in any given primary, the bigger the slice of the electorate women…

According to the most recent Gallup poll, "A record proportion of Americans -- 47% -- say the United States' national defense is not strong enough. Another 41% say the country's defense is about right, while 10% say it is stronger than it needs to be." This is a very interesting finding,…

For the first time in a month, Hillary Clinton has pulled ahead of Barack Obama in a national tracking poll, 48-44. According to Gallup, "National Democratic preferences began to shift in Clinton's favor on Sunday, gained momentum on Monday, and remained favorable to her on Tuesday." Gallup will…

Texas exit polls are now up and point to a very tight race Lone Star state. See the full results here. A few interesting tidbits: Clinton did very well with Hispanics in general, but Obama broke through among those under 30, winning the 18-29 Latino vote 52-47. He lost the other age groups among…

Limited exit poll information points to a Clinton win in Ohio tonight. You can see the results here. Women represented 59 percent of all Ohio Democratic voters--good news for Senator Clinton who won among females 54-45. Obama won among men by a narrower 52-47 spread, more good news for Clinton who…

Experience and vision produce some sharp electoral fault lines this presidential election season. As we'll no doubt see in the Ohio and Texas exit polls, Democrats like Senator Clinton's experience but swoon over Senator Obama's vision. These candidate characteristics cause even more dramatic…

Last week I wrote that neither party's front-runner enjoyed broad support among frequent churchgoers--a key target group for both parties in 2008. Exit polls show that those who attend church more than once a week prefer Clinton to Obama and Huckabee over McCain. Neither party will nominate the top…

The Pew Research Center issued a new poll today highlighting some of Senator Obama and Senator McCain's strengths and vulnerabilities as they both try to nail down their party nominations. The survey gives the Illinois Senator a nine-point lead (49-40) nation-wide over Hillary Clinton among all…

Texas law allows early voting in its primaries. And counties in Texas experiencing the largest increases in pre-election day balloting compared to four years ago are also those with demographic characteristics most likely to support Barack Obama. Polling shows the Illinois Senator does well among…

Based on turnout, Democrats are blowing the doors off Republicans this presidential cycle. For example, on Super Tuesday, 14.6 million Democrats cast ballots compared to only 9 million Republicans. But is a particular candidate causing the surge? Many believe the boost is due to Hillary Clinton…

In recent years, interest in religion and politics has spread like converts at a revival. Electoral analysts have long dissected the voting patterns of various belief groups, such as Protestants, Catholics and Jews. And at the end of the 20th century, the growing mobilization of the Christian…

WHEN IT COMES to public reputation, Congress is like the kid from the wrong side of the tracks. Perceived as an ill-mannered and unscrupulous institution, Americans' view of this legislative body could inspire songs like, "Mama, Don't Let Your Babies Grow up To Be House Members." Yet this belief is…

THIS FALL THE BUSH administration and congressional Republicans will lay a major new spending control tool on the legislative workbench and try to enact it before Congress adjourns. Yet before even trying to pick it up, Democrats will reject it--saying it's too heavy, too light, or somehow just not…

IT'S BEEN ABOUT THREE WEEKS since the sign-up phase of the new Medicare prescription drug benefit ended on May 15, and the program's supporters have earned some bragging rights. Even with its early success and growing popularity, some key elements of Medicare reform have received little attention,…

RODNEY DANGERFIELD'S famous line accurately diagnoses Congress's popularity problem--based on recent polling, lawmakers collectively get little respect from the public. But if 80 percent of success really is just showing up, then Woody Allen may have their solution.

CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS might want to check in with their constituents before writing any more press releases, making further speeches or voting "no" tomorrow on legislation in the House to extend current tax policies. Sure, the class warfare harangues and soak-the-rich rhetoric make liberals…

SENATE REPUBLICANS had a banner night on Tuesday, picking up 4 net seats and expanding their majority from 51 to 55, by staging a Sherman-like political march through the South. Big Dixie wins in states previously represented by Democrats--Georgia (where Rep. Johnny Isakson won), South Carolina…

THE LAST THREE YEARS have been good for taxpayers, as Congress and the president worked together to reduce levies on three separate occasions. Now it's year four of the Bush administration and, while the deficit balloons and Democrats play class politics in the presidential election, the general…