David Smick is an economic policy strategist, author, and editor of The International Economy magazine. He contributed essays and commentary to The Weekly Standard from 1997 to 2013, covering macroeconomic policy, financial markets, and the intersection of economics and politics. He is the author of 'The World Is Curved: Hidden Dangers to the Global Economy' and has advised policymakers on both sides of the aisle.
Recently a Japanese economist visited Washington to explain his government’s “five year economic outlook.” A five month outlook might have been more credible. Yet with surprising hubris, the economist forecast inflation and GDP five years out.
On the issue of public debt, Washington is experiencing what psychologists call “learned helplessness.” The financial news is so relentlessly terrible that people have become numb to it and assume nothing can be done to regain control over our fate.
In late 1979, during an economic strategy meeting, Ronald Reagan was talking about his upcoming presidential campaign. At one point, somebody expressed concern that John Connally, the former governor of Texas and another presidential candidate, was gaining support among corporate chief executive…
When people asked what fundamentally caused the financial crisis, my answer is not what they expect. I respond with one phrase--the fall of the Berlin Wall. By the early 1990s, after the collapse of the socialist model, emerging market economies such as China, India, Eastern Europe, and the…
When people picture Jack Kemp, the Republican congressman, cabinet member, and presidential candidate who died last week, they think of Ronald Reagan's sidekick. They envision the two men--a football player and an actor--enjoying a warm, cozy, political partnership that guided 1980s economic policy.
The most dangerous time politically for John McCain is between now and Labor Day, when the GOP convention begins. Democrats, including 527-funded outside groups, will attempt to marginalize him on the domestic front. With the collapse in consumer confidence and the ongoing credit crisis, they will…
THE ISSUE OF GLOBALIZATION--which has been growing from a preoccupation of the political fringe to a battle cry of the Democratic mainstream--may well become the sleeper issue of 2008. Listen to the postelection chatter in Washington right now, which can be boiled down to one question: Did the…
REPUBLICANS, giddy and gloating, are understandably proud of the outcome of the election. Democrats from Boston to San Francisco are on a 24-hour suicide watch. Before the GOP euphoria gets out of hand, though, consider that the next four years could be challenging in ways unimagined.
WANT TO MAKE ECONOMISTS REALLY SQUIRM? Tell them that Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan should receive the next Nobel Prize for economics. It's not that the extraordinarily successful Fed chairman isn't highly respected within the field. It's just that a prize for Greenspan, based on policy…
IF YOU ARE PERPLEXED about the state of the American economy, join the club. For most traditional economists, the rules aren't working. No matter how tight labor markets are, how seemingly overvalued the stock market, how dangerous the interest-rate spreads, somehow growth keeps spiraling higher.…
IF YOU ARE CONFUSED over the adoring press coverage of Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin for his intervention in global currency markets, you're not alone. Rubin himself must be scratching his head.
"STOCKS SOAR ON OPTIMISM OVER ASIA," announced a page-one headline in last week's Washington Post. Anyone would think the Asian crisis was all but over, and the U.S. economy safely set to grow at 2-3 percent this year, and the stock market primed to whip past 10,000. . . . Well, don't bet the ranch…
IMAGINE YOU WERE GEORGE SOROS'S chief currency and bond trader. Throughout the late 1980s, you bet that an almighty Japanese juggernaut -- the new capitalist model for the 21st century -- was taking over the world, Rockefeller Center and all. Today, had you followed that line, you would not be…