Cedar Falls, Iowa
Travis Smith came to Donald Trump's latest Iowa rally an undecided Republican caucusgoer, but left a committed Trump supporter. "I was kind of on the fence before coming down. But now I'm pretty much 100 percent" for Trump, he said after the rally Tuesday night. "I liked Ted Cruz as well. But now there's questions about his citizenship. I don't want to wait and see what's going to happen with that."
Earlier in the evening, Trump told the crowd that the Washington Post came out with a "big story" (really, an op-ed) that day: " Ted Cruz is not eligible to be president."
Don Ertl, who has participated in every Iowa caucus since 1976, left the rally saying he's still torn between Trump and Cruz, and that decision may very well come down to a coin-flip. But Ertl was concerned about Trump's claim that Democrats could challenge Cruz's citizenship. "It doesn't bother me. But I think that could be an issue if the Democrats get ahold of it," Ertl said of the fact that Cruz was born in Canada to a U.S. citizen.
Polls suggest that Trump's attacks on Cruz are moving the needle in Iowa. Between December and January, Cruz's lead over Trump was cut from 10 points to 3 points in the Des Moines Register poll. In the Real Clear Politics average of Iowa polls, Cruz was leading Trump by 4 points a week ago. Trump is now edging Cruz by less than 1 point.
The simplest reason for Cruz's slippage in the polls is that Trump has given undecided Iowans several reasons not to vote for Ted Cruz--citizenship, ethanol, immigration. But Cruz really hasn't articulated any specific reasons why Iowans shouldn't back Trump. The Texas senator has been reluctant until this week to call Trump anything other than " terrific."
Cruz finally responded to Trump this week with a vague reference to the billionaire's "New York values," but the big question heading into Thursday night's debate is whether Cruz will try to land any solid blows against Trump. The decision won't be easy for Cruz. His strategy of " bear hugging" Trump has served him well until recently, and there's no telling how Trump would respond if Cruz takes the gloves off.
But Trump will throw everything he can at Cruz if he truly feels threatened by Cruz (just look at how Trump compared Ben Carson to a child molester when Carson was overtaking Trump in the polls). Cruz has been reluctant to criticize Trump because he hopes to inherit Trump's support someday. But it's much more important for Cruz to win in Iowa than it is for him to avoid offending Trump's most fervent supporters at all costs.
With less than three weeks until the Iowa caucuses, the situation on the ground remains very fluid. According to Quinnipiac, 46 percent of likely caucusgoers say they may change their minds between now and February 1, and another 5 percent say they're truly undecided. But establishment figures like Jeb Bush are not going to persuade voters torn between Cruz and Trump to not vote for Trump. Only Ted Cruz can do that.
If Cruz decides to take on Trump, he certainly has plenty of material to work with, including Trump's current love of Canadian-style socialist health care, his cronyist big-government position on eminent domain, his muddled position on abortion, and his admiration of anti-American tyrants. As a hardline conservative, Cruz will be mocked for giving Trump a pass on all of his liberal positions until Trump attacked Cruz. But beating Trump will be well worth the mockery to Cruz.