Bill Kristol makes the case for a wide-open Republican race for president. Among the scenarios Kristol outlines:
Thompson wins or runs a strong second in Iowa, as almost everyone else underperforms (except Huckabee?). Having over-performed in Iowa enough to be the story, Thompson over-performs in New Hampshire and then Michigan, and wins South Carolina. He'll then be on his way, as a center-right candidate running up the middle between Huckabee and Giuliani. (For examples of how being positioned in the center can pay off, consider Kerry in '04 between Dean and Gephardt/Lieberman, or Bush in 2000 between Forbes and McCain, or Dole in '96 between Buchanan/Forbes and Alexander.) Thompson wins Florida and most of the delegates (remember the overweighted South) on Feb. 5. In this scenario, Thompson will have exploited the distinction between what Jay Cost calls the 'perpetual campaign' (or the pre-campaign) and the 'real campaign.' He will have gotten credit with voters for flouting what Cost calls 'fake rules' that voters dislike (e.g., that you have to start running a year early), while obeying enough real rules (Thompson already has over 75,000 donors, few of them maxed out, and some $7 million cash on hand) to afford TV at key junctures.
A major variable in this equation is how Thompson continues to perform as a candidate - something Cost observes here:
It comes down to execution. If you break the rules, break them well. Thompson is not breaking them very well. A case in point came last Saturday - when his speech before the Florida Republican Party was about a third of the time that the other candidates' speeches were. This was a mistake - pure and simple. If Thompson deemed the event important enough to participate, he should have participated as fully as the other candidates. He looked really bad because of that five minute speech (some reports actually offered the length down to the second ... yikes). Now - personally, I think the fact that he is doing fewer events is just fine. I think he is on to something. The public is sick of this endless campaign. A candidate who rejects it could find some sympathy and support from the voters. So, it is all right for Thompson to do fewer events. However, if he does fewer, he has to make sure that the ones he does are done with vigor and verve. That Florida speech lacked both - and it was not the first time that a Thompson speech has fallen flat. We have been hearing that for much of the year - since he gave what Robert Novak called his 'ordinary' debut in May.
At the center of every presidential scenario is the candidate. So far, Thompson has out-performed extremely low expectations. The question is whether he can continue to do so as the "real" campaign begins.