( As I mentioned last month, the Iranian economy is highly vulnerable to international sanctions -- particularly those that would hinder its crude production and ability to sell oil on the world market. Today's Washington Post notes: "Experts on Iran point to a number of reasons it might be reluctant to cut oil exports. Oil accounts for 85 percent of Iran's exports, according to an International Monetary Fund report issued last month. Revenue from those exports makes up 65 percent of government income. And Iran uses a good chunk of that money to raise public-sector wages and to subsidize its own gasoline prices, one way to keep domestic discontent in check when unemployment is running at more than 12 percent and inflation at 13 percent." Unfortunately, the odds the international community will come together to put the screws on Iran's oil industry are pretty slim.) Posted on April 12, 2006: The regime may be more vulnerable to comprehensive sanctions than many realize. Despite high oil prices, the mullahs are running an economy with little job growth and high unemployment. Radio Free Europe reports that Iran's president has been traveling around the country reassuring people on the economy.
President Ahmadinejad has discussed the issue of unemployment -- estimated to be at least 11 percent and closer to 20 percent -- in several recent speeches, hinting at his recognition that he must satisfy voters' most immediate concerns. He announced in the northeastern town of Quchan on April 11 that 180 trillion rials (approximately $200 million) will be distributed in the provinces for job creation, IRNA reported. In a speech in Mashhad on April 10, he said, "Employment is one of the most important issues to be tackled by the nation and the government," state television reported. "There are so many young people who have a specialization. They have learned and studied but there is no employment opportunity for them."
A sanctions-induced economic tailspin may convince many Iranians that their government's nuclear weapons quest isn't such a good idea. Of course, the most comprehensive sanctions would be those imposed by the UN Security Council. But that would require Russia and China to act responsibly so don't hold your breath. And even if the UN acted with speed and resolve in applying real sanctions it may not be enough to stop Iran's weapons program. But it's worth a try.