In this post, John Podhoretz sides with Fred Barnes on the question of whether the GOP primary contest is a fight between two men - Giuliani and Romney - or five - Giuliani, McCain, Romney, Thompson, and Huckabee. (Bill Kristol argues that the race is wide-open for all here.) Here's Podhoretz:
Romney has a coherent plan for victory: He is fighting like mad to win early states in the hope that those victories will catapult him into the big primary as the leader. So he is leading in polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina but is trailing badly in national polls. Giuliani has a coherent plan for victory: Use his persistent standing at the top of the national leader board and his deep popularity in Florida (land of ex-New Yorkers) to his advantage by allowing him to bypass the earlier, smaller, more eccentric states where he has less of a chance to prevail.
Who's in a stronger position at the moment? Here's Podhoretz again:
I think Giuliani is, and I do not say this as an advocate. In all three states where Romney is leading, he is facing distinct challenges. Huckabee is gaining on him in Iowa. McCain has advanced in New Hampshire even as Giuliani has faded some. And he is in a statistical dead heat in South Carolina with Giuliani and Thompson. Under these conditions, Romney might win in all three, but do so in a less than commanding fashion that allows the media to focus attention on those who come in second - Huckabee, McCain, and even Giuliani. After all, the only time a win isn't a win is in primary politics. (Quick - which Democrat won New Hampshire in 1992? No, it wasn't Bill Clinton, the self-declared 'Comeback Kid.' It was Paul Tsongas.)
We will now relatively soon whether or not Romney's theory of the race is true - that is, if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then that should raise his national numbers and put him into strong contention in Michigan and South Carolina. All of which contests will be held by January 22, 2008. It will take longer for us to disprove Giuliani's theory of the race. He seems committed to the idea that he will remain in the contest through at least the national primary day on February 5, 2008, at which point several contenders - including Romney - may have already dropped out.