While New York Democratic congressman Eric Massa slowly and publicly unravels, it's important to note that the Democrats do not seem to be any closer to passing health care reform. Phil Klein has a roundup of four Democratic No votes (including Massa) who still haven't flipped to Yes. And they aren't alone.
Meanwhile, Keith Hennessey has a must-read health care post assessing the current situation. Key point:
The conventional wisdom is that if they can’t get it done by Easter Recess, it will never happen, so they’ll give up. That feels right, but if the President wants to press forward after recess, nothing precludes him from doing so. I had mistakenly thought they would have given up long ago. I’ll guess that the real deadline is for House passage before the Easter Recess.
Don't forget that Clinton's health care plan didn't unravel until after the August recess in 1994. The president has staked his first Congress on passing health care reform. The Democratic leadership seem committed to flipping votes in order to pass the bill. Say they don't get the votes before the Easter recess. Would the president and Congress declare the bill dead? Doubtful. It's more likely they would become the peasants in Raskolnikov's dream, flogging a dead horse and trying again and again and again to pass the bill. And this incessant but ineffective push would continue until Election Day--or until a major party figure goes rogue, splinters the party, and says the bill is dead.