A vote on Sen. Nelson's abortion amendment could come as early as today. David M. Herszenhorn reports:
The liberals believe that as many as nine senators in the 60-member Democratic caucus, including Mr. Nelson, will support the amendment, leaving exactly 51 Democrats in favor of tabling the proposal. And some Republican supporters of abortion rights, including Senators Olympia J. Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine, are expected to join in defeating it. Still, the abortion issue threatens to cost Democrats the support of Mr. Nelson for the larger health care bill. And because the majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, will eventually need 60 votes to wrap up debate and move to a final vote, further compromise on the issue could be needed. Or Mr. Reid will have to win over one or both of the Maine Republicans to approve the bill. And that could entail tough negotiations over many other provisions.
Both of the ladies from Maine have said they will oppose a bill with a public option. So: Reid's job, it seems to me, is to find a compromise on abortion that can draw Nelson's vote, while also finding a compromise on the public option that can draw Snowe's. And he needs to do it soon. The Democrats would like a bill by Christmas, but the more compelling deadline is Obama's State of the Union in January. If Obama takes the podium in January and is able to say he's done more to implement national health care than any president since Lyndon Johnson, his second year as president will be off to a good start. If he takes the podium with no health care reform, however, and instead has only an unemployment rate around 10 percent and a variety of unpopular policies and proposals, he'll be in trouble.