A reader writes in to share his "Tipping Point" theory of elections: "For example, before the Civil War, once it became clear that the Republican party was going to be the major challenger to the Democrats, support for the Whig party didn't stay at 25 percent, it dropped to almost zero. There was a period of uncertainty, then a 'tipping point,' and then the bottom fell out on the Whigs. "All of that can happen much faster now. Looking at the polls, there are some states where Huck is still polling strongly, but he has lost the lead or dropped into third. That raises the distinct possibility that people could decide at the last minute that he is a non-factor, and his support could collapse. This has happened before in lots of three-way races, where the third-place candidate will just drop from 20-25 to around 10 in the last few days. "Just a hunch, but if that happens and Romney benefits, it could throw the race wide open again. Maybe I'm wrong, but a lot of the polls this morning look pretty good for Romney; he seems to have prevented the bandwagon from taking off too fast, which I wasn't expecting at all. Anyway, it doesn't hurt to look at the polls through the prism of a possible Huckabee 'tipping point' collapse." Indeed, it does not. Especially when we saw something happen to Rudy Giuliani's support in New Hampshire, Michigan, and South Carolina.
Matthew Continetti
"Tipping Point" Elections
A reader writes in to share his "Tipping Point" theory of elections: "For example, before the Civil War, once it became clear that the Republican party was going to be the major challenger to the Democrats, support for the Whig party didn't stay at 25 percent, it dropped to almost zero. There was a…
Matthew Continetti · February 4, 2008
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