"The War in Afghanistan is Winnable"

John Nagl remains optimistic about U.S. prospects in Afghanistan:

The war in Afghanistan is winnable for three reasons: because for the first time the coalition fighting there has the right strategy and the resources to begin to implement it, because the Taliban are losing their sanctuaries in Pakistan and because the Afghan government and the security forces are growing in capability and numbers. None of these trends is irreversible, and they are not in themselves determinants of victory. But they demonstrate that the war can be won if we display the kind of determination that defeating an insurgency requires.

Nagl concludes:

We waited until last year to give the Afghan conflict the resources that success will require. While we focused on Iraq, the Taliban regained strength and reinstituted their previous reign of terror in much of southern and eastern Afghanistan. But with the war in Iraq winding down and a determined international focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan, it is possible over the next five years to build an Afghan government that can outperform the Taliban and an Afghan Army that can outfight it. President Karzai recently held a peace summit to discuss with his countrymen how to bring Taliban fighters in from the cold, renounce violence and accept the Afghan constitution. That is how this war is likely to end - first with a trickle and then a torrent of Taliban deciding that working with the government offers a better future than fighting against it. They will make that decision only if the United States demonstrates that it is committed to staying the hard course in Afghanistan that Obama decided to follow just last year. The path will be hard, but - if we remain dedicated to the fight - it is far from hopeless.