THE SCRAPBOOK might be tempted to predict the impeachment of the president, except for the wise words of the Baltimore pundit H. L. Mencken, who observed famously that -- how does it go? -- no one ever went broke underestimating the squishiness of congressional Republicans. And it's not just the moderates, either. Consider the curious case of second-term Hoosier Republican Mark Souder.
Last January, the week before Monica Lewinsky became a household name, Souder spoke to an Indiana chapter of the John Birch Society. The subject? Why he supported opening an inquiry into the impeachment of Bill Clinton. But over the past year, Souder has been transformed into an outspoken opponent of impeaching the president. What happened? Souder claims he still wants to look into impeaching Clinton, it's just that he thinks the Lewinsky matter is the weakest charge against him. He says he's disappointed the House hasn't broadened the impeachment inquiry to look into campaign finance abuses and the transfer of technology to China. Privately, he's told colleagues that people lie about sex all the time, particularly in divorce proceedings.
Souder has been under enormous pressure to change his thinking about impeachment, but late last week his press secretary said there was no truth to the rumors he was about to do so. That's fueled talk Souder will face a challenge in the Republican primary in 2000. Presumably from the right. But how to outflank the John Birch society?