John McCain is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. He may falter, since many conservatives remain opposed to his candidacy. But important national figures soon may back him:
California is shaping up as a player in a presidential contest for the first time in decades. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger last year moved the California primary to February from April. The timing could help make the moderate Republican governor a presidential power broker. Although he hasn't endorsed any Republican candidates, he is friendly with Arizona Sen. John McCain and their political views are generally compatible. Mr. Schwarzenegger could come out soon in support of Mr. McCain, says a person familiar with the governor's thinking.
A liberal friend mentioned the other day that McCain's problems were with the Republican establishment, but that's not quite the case. Remember: Trent Lott is for McCain. You can't get much more "establishment" than that. McCain's problems have been with the conservative grassroots, a large portion of which doesn't trust him. A major story to follow in the Republican campaign is whether the grassroots will make its peace with the war hero and "maverick" senator. And in New Hampshire, while McCain was more or less tied with Romney among self-identified Republicans, he lost conservatives to Romney 30 percent to 38 percent.