As Democrats prepared to debate in New Hampshire tonight, local TV station WMUR, partnering with CNN, released a poll showing Giuliani pulling within a statistically insignificant one point behind Mitt Romney. The WMUR/CNN poll echoes a general trend in which Romney's New Hampshire lead is narrowing as Giuliani and McCain rise. Meanwhile Romney maintains his double-digit lead in Iowa. But how stable is that? It's notoriously difficult to poll in Iowa, since it's a caucus state. But let's say Romney pulls out a win in Iowa next January. The race will immediately shift to New Hampshire, where Romney's lead appears tenuous (for now). Romney would receive a boost, but so would whoever came in second in Iowa . . . Giuliani, Thompson, McCain, Huckabee, etc. That man, too, would receive a boost, and, if these poll numbers hold--which they probably won't!--that man, too, would have an equal chance to capitalize on his Iowa finish. Which is to say: Even if the early states matter more than any others in this front-loaded primary--something the Giuliani campaign disputes--the GOP race is wide open.
Matthew Continetti
The Other New Hampshire Primary
As Democrats prepared to debate in New Hampshire tonight, local TV station WMUR, partnering with CNN, released a poll showing Giuliani pulling within a statistically insignificant one point behind Mitt Romney. The WMUR/CNN poll echoes a general trend in which Romney's New Hampshire lead is…
Matthew Continetti · September 27, 2007
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