Amr Hamzawy, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote an interesting piece recently in Beirut's Daily Star on the "ideological crisis" facing al Qaeda. He notes that in the Arab world there seems to be an "emerging public consensus that democracy is the only viable way ahead" to address the "severe crises of Arab societies." Hamzawy points to bin Laden's latest videotape as evidence that such an emerging consensus has greatly undermined the message of al Qaeda.
It is not lost on bin Laden that a clear majority of Arabs has grown less sympathetic to his group's terrorist agenda in the last few years.... In previous videotapes, he accused pro-Western Arab governments and official religious institutions of seducing their populations away from the path of jihad. But this time he blamed Arab liberal intellectuals and writers for betraying the true spirit of Islam. For bin Laden, the liberals disseminate "blasphemous ideas" of democracy, human rights, and moderation, and in so doing diminish the degree of popular support for Al-Qaeda's jihad. The Al-Qaeda leader's decision to open a front against Arab liberals may threaten them, but it is also a testimony to their moral and political influence in the Arab world of today. Since 2001, Arab liberals have become more assertive in pushing for gradual democratic reform and respect for human rights as the only viable strategies to master the severe crises of Arab societies. Over the past years, their message has caught the attention of growing segments of Arab populations. There appears to be an emerging public consensus that democracy is the only viable way ahead. Bin Laden is right in fearing this development, since it undermines the logic of his terrorist agenda. Indeed, liberals in Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon, and even Saudi Arabia have proven as effective in combating terrorism as various "hard" security measures. Al-Qaeda is on the defensive not only because of the geographical but also the political isolation of its leaders: Its radical, militant blueprints have lost a great deal of their appeal as Arabs have had a change of heart.... Although it's uncertain whether Arab liberals will see their dream realized, Al-Qaeda's project no longer represents an alternative.