" HUGE SURGE: Burr 44% Marshall 43%," reads the subject line of an email from North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Elaine Marshall to supporters highlighting a new Rasmussen poll:
John - I wasn't planning on emailing you today, but…wow! In just a month, our campaign has surged +13% according to Rasmussen's monthly tracking poll. Now the race is statistically tied and we are on our way to retiring Richard Burr...
In 2010, Senate Republicans are mainly focused on playing offense in the 11 Democratic states in play, but they still have to be worried about playing defense in a few states like Florida, Ohio, and Missouri. Should they add North Carolina to that list. Larry Sabato at UVA's Center for Politics doesn't seem to think so. Just before the Rasmussen poll was released, he wrote that "we have long leaned it to Burr, and by the fall, we wouldn’t be surprised if our rating changes to 'Likely Republican."
"I dont' change my analysis one bit" in light of the Rasmussen poll, Sabato tells TWS. "Look at the fundamentals on this race." He notes it's a Republican year in a state where the Democratic governor is "enormously unpopular," and the well-funded Republican Richard Burr
It is a republican year. ..
very well funded
democrat is "virtually bankrupt"
the democratic governor is enormously unpopular. ... the democratic senator who beat elizabeth dole. .... perdue and hagan is particularly. ... well below what it was in 2008. ...
How is Marshall going to win? ...
the Democrats have so many seats to defend in the senate that i just don't think they're going to have a lot of cash to put into North Carolina. ....
real world evaluations come into this. this is not just some kind of theoretical race on paper. Its occuring in the midst of 36 . ... .
No, . ... I'll be surprised if I don't eventually change it to likely grea.t ...