Late last week Byron Dorgan, the North Dakota Democrat, offered what he assumed was an uncontroversial amendment to the 2008 Defense Authorization bill under consideration in the Senate. The amendment would have increased to $50 million the reward "for the capture, or information leading to the capture," of Osama bin Laden. But Senate Republicans noticed something odd about the Dorgan amendment. It contained no mention of a reward for bin Laden's death.
John Sununu, the New Hampshire Republican up for reelection next year, quickly introduced his own amendment striking Dorgan's language and replacing it with a $50 million reward for "the capture or death or information leading to the capture or death" of bin Laden. Sununu's amendment passed by unanimous consent. The next morning the Senate's number three Republican, Jon Kyl of Arizona, went to the Senate floor and pointed out the discrepancy between Dorgan's and Sununu's amendments. Dorgan's emphasis on "capturing" bin Laden, Kyl said, was illustrative of the Democrats' approach to terrorists. Kyl said Democrats treat the enemy as criminals to be captured and prosecuted, not enemy soldiers to be detained or destroyed. The revised Dorgan amendment passed overwhelmingly.
The Dorgan episode also illustrates how quickly the terms of a debate can change. Republicans began last week worried that the fight over the defense bill would lead to substantial GOP defections from President Bush's surge policy in Iraq. That didn't happen. Instead Senate Republicans are confident they will be able to defeat every amendment to the bill that contains a congressionally mandated change in Iraq policy. What's more, the Senate Republican leadership is primed to go on offense this week, having identified language in the authorization bill, and in several Democratic amendments to it, that they plan to portray as soft on terrorism.
For months the Democratic leadership, believing the Iraq issue helps their party, planned to renew the war debate in mid-July. Their position was strengthened early this month, when Republican senators Richard Lugar of Indiana, George Voinovich of Ohio, Pete Domenici of New Mexico, and John Warner of Virginia criticized the president's strategy, adding to the number and profile of Bush's public GOP doubters.
But the Democrats may have miscalculated. Only three Republicans--Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Gordon Smith of Oregon, and Olympia Snowe of Maine--have said that they will vote for an amendment, known as Levin-Reed, that would mandate troop withdrawals from Iraq beginning 120 days from passage, with the target date of April 30, 2008, for most troops to be withdrawn. The amendment's sponsors are Democrats Carl Levin of Michigan and Jack Reed of Rhode Island. It's the withdrawal plan with the greatest chance of success because it does not cut off funding for the war. But three Republicans aren't enough to lift the Democrats over the 60-vote supermajority they need to pass Levin-Reed. Nor is it even close to the 67 votes required to override a certain presidential veto. (On July 12, the House of Representatives passed, 223 to 201, legislation similar to Levin-Reed. Only four Republicans voted for the bill--indeed, 10 Democrats voted against it--and the margin of victory was nowhere near the number necessary to override a veto.)
It was Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky who struck the first blow against the Democrats, insisting that no amendment to the defense bill would pass without 60 votes. The initial test of McConnell's leadership came when Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada brought up for consideration an amendment, sponsored by Democrat James Webb of Virginia and Nebraska's Hagel, mandating that troops spend at least as long in America as they spend deployed in Iraq or Afghanistan. Senate Republicans said the amendment was designed to drive a wedge between the president and the troops. "They came out with their best shot," says a member of the GOP Senate leadership. Only 7 Republicans voted to cut off debate over Webb-Hagel. The amendment failed, 56 to 41.
The next major test comes early this week, when the Senate considers the Levin-Reed withdrawal plan. Senate Republicans are confident they will be able to defeat the amendment. They are also confident a proposal--sponsored by Democrat Ken Salazar of Colorado and Republican Lamar Alexander of Tennessee--that would write the 79 recommendations of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group (ISG) into law, will fail.
Salazar-Alexander has 13 cosponsors all told, 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans, who believe it is the best chance for a bipartisan policy of long-term engagement in Iraq. The goal is to have most American combat troops removed from Iraq by March 30, 2008, "subject to conditions on the ground." The ISG amendment is attacked from all sides. Opponents on both left and right say events have overtaken last December's Iraq Study Group report. Pro-surge forces say Salazar-Alexander is congressional interference in war policy, and that the practical consequences of such legislation are unclear. McConnell, who has said kind things about the Iraq Study Group in the past, will oppose the amendment. And for its part, the antiwar left--including Reid--says the ISG doesn't go far enough to force an American withdrawal. Still, Reid has guaranteed Salazar a vote.
Reid has also guaranteed each of the Democratic presidential candidates a vote on his or her own amendment, if desired. This means it is likely that Hillary Clinton and West Virginia Democrat Robert Byrd's amendment to rescind the October 2002 authorization for war against Saddam Hussein will be brought to a vote--though it is unlikely to pass. The fate of other proposals is unclear. One X-factor is a proposal brought Friday afternoon by Sens. Lugar and Warner that would require the president to seek a revised congressional war authorization. And the Senate GOP leadership is unsure whether Reid will bring up his own amendment: a plan, sponsored along with Wisconsin Democrat Russ Feingold, to remove all Americans from Iraq by March 31, 2008--at which point funding for the war would end. In the past, the proposal failed to attract even substantial Democratic support. "So far we've been able to defeat the cut-and-run and cut-and-jog amendments," says Missouri's Kit Bond, the ranking member on the Senate Intelligence Committee, whose son is serving in Iraq.
Senate Republicans' next move will be to introduce an amendment striking language from the defense bill that would expand the rights of detainees held in military prisons in Iraq. And they look forward to debating Democratic amendments that they say would treat terrorism as a crime, not war. An amendment sponsored by California Democrat Dianne Feinstein would shut down the terrorist detention facility in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and forbid the Defense Department from simply moving the prisoners to other brigs outside the United States. This would probably force the department to move the detainees into prisons inside the United States--thus opening up opportunities for litigation. Another amendment, sponsored by Vermont Democrat Patrick Leahy, would provide habeas corpus rights to detainees and others designated unlawful enemy combatants, rights Congress denied them in last year's Military Commissions Act.
So Democrats, having hoped to build antiwar momentum in July, risk leaving Washington at the end of the month playing defense. "Enough Republicans feel we need to wait until at least September" before doing anything drastic, says the member of the GOP Senate leadership. September is when Gen. David Petraeus, the commander in Iraq, and U.S. ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker are scheduled to return to Washington to deliver a status report on the surge. What happens after Petraeus delivers his report? The senator would not say.
Matthew Continetti is associate editor at THE WEEKLY STANDARD.