The thread of bipartisanship the Democrats so desperately wish to cling to is in the hands of moderate Republican Olympia Snowe, as she decides whether to vote yes or no on the Senate Finance Committee version of the health-care reform bill today.
The Politico analyzes what her decision would mean:
IF SNOWE VOTES YES: This is clearly the outcome Baucus is rooting for, as he made a lot of concessions to bring her on board, including cutting the no-insurance penalties by more than half. The bipartisan nod Snowe brings to the bill strengthens Baucus's hand as he, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee's Chris Dodd merge the Health and Finance committee bills. IF SNOWE VOTES NO: This will be written as a major setback for Democrats, plain and simple. For Baucus, this one stings because he would have put so much time and effort into wooing Snowe, all for naught. He doesn't get the hero's welcome, or a carrot to entice moderate Democrats. And the failure to win Snowe's support in Finance will raise questions about whether Baucus and Reid can win her support on the floor.
When talking to reporters right before she entered the committee meeting, she expressed some criticism about insurance industry claims that the bill would drive premiums up, which some seemed to take as a hint she was leaning toward a "yes" vote. Lincoln, on the other hand, is a moderate Democrat, and perhaps one of the most vulnerable in 2010. If Snowe voted "no," and Lincoln followed, Lincoln's vote would send other moderate Democrats into the "no" column, too. Many of them are vulnerable, and squeamish about voting for a bill that has not even a fig leaf of bipartisanship. Dick Morris wrote about her influence last week:
Lincoln is probably the single most vulnerable Democrat running for reelection in 2010. She is the proverbial canary in the coalmine. If she makes it, so will all the Democrats. Hailing from a conservative Southern state, her poll numbers suggest that she would be in a heap of trouble with a stiff challenger. If Lincoln defects and joins the Republicans in voting no (as she has done on a number of amendments), she will do a lot to cement her chances to remain a senator, but will open a wound in the Democratic Party. A domino effect will likely set in. Her Arkansas colleague, Democrat Mark Pryor, will feel exposed by her defection and will probably consider voting no as well.
But probably the most important question of the day is addressed by the Huffington Post: "Olympia Snowe's Suits: Matronly or Magnificent?"