A friend of the CAMPAIGN STANDARD writes in:
Larry Sabato, the ubiquitous professor from the University of Virginia, has an intriguing proposal for replacing the front-loaded schedule that has turned the presidential primaries and caucuses into a one-month sprint from early next January to early in February. He says there needs to be some "federal intelligent design" to stop the states from continuing to ruin the nominating process. And "the only possible, comprehensive answer is likely to be a constitutional one," either by amendment or a constitutional convention. It's all in his new book, A More Perfect Constitution: 23 Proposals To Revitalize Our Constitution and Make America a Fairer Country. Sabato calls his scheme "The Regional Lottery Plan." It contains both an old idea--four regional primaries over four months--and several new ones. The country would be divided into four regions, each given one month between April and July to hold its contests. Individual states would decide when during the month to schedule voting. A lottery on New Year's Day would decide the order of the regional primaries. Now here's the most intriguing part. Sabato would preserve the system of having two smaller states lead off the primaries, as Iowa and New Hampshire do now. Why? Because in those states presidential candidates are forced to meet face to face with thousands of voters, rather than appearing chiefly at mass rallies or in TV ads. This "small state scrutiny" is valuable, Sabato argues, and few would disagree. But voters in Iowa and New Hampshire wouldn't automatically be the folks doing the early scrutinizing. Again there would be a lottery. Two states would be picked each presidential cycle from the 20 states with four or fewer electoral states and their primaries (or caucuses) would be held around March 15, two weeks before the first primary. Got all that? Two lotteries, four regional primaries preceded by early contests in two small states. No doubt many states would balk at this, since they'd lose their right to schedule their primaries whenever they wished. Thus, Sabato says, the only way to put the Sabato plan into practice would be through a mandate of the U.S. Constitution. That's not likely to happen soon. But one judgment about Sabato's proposal can be made now: whatever its flaws, it would be an improvement over the mad rush of primaries next winter from which we'll learn little about the candidates.
I'm a little more ambivalent about the front-loaded primary schedule than my friend--why shouldn't states decide when to have their primaries? is it that big a deal? if it is, won't they self-correct?--but I am definitely not ambivalent about Sabato's Crystal Ball website, which we will link to more and more as the elections approach.