Dr. Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia writes on 15 bellwether races that will help determine control of the House of Representatives in 2008. Although 14 of the seats are held by Democrats, he gives the Democrat an edge in just 5 of them. But Sabato stresses that while this means the GOP has plenty of targets to go after in 2008, history suggests that only a small minority of the Democratic freshmen are likely to be defeated next year:
The strong anti-GOP waves we witnessed in 2006 may be somewhat tempered by the time of the next slate of elections. So it follows that several freshman Democrats in districts that are essentially toss-ups--or even normally favor Republicans--could be in grave danger if political winds shift. Still, keep this in mind: in 1976, just two of the 76 Democratic freshmen (3 percent) were defeated in the first election after the anti-Nixon Democratic wave in 1974. In 1996, two years after the Republican wave of 1994, 12 of the 73 Republican freshmen (16 percent) went down in defeat.
Still other factors that must be considered: the margin of control is just 15 seats, presidential coattails could have a significant effect, and the Democrats are currently raising boatloads of money for 2008. But one should also keep in mind that this list of 15 seats is only the start of the GOP target list in 2008. There are 28 seats that Democrats won with less than 55 percent of the vote in 2006, and House Democrats currently represent about 60 districts that were won by George Bush in 2004. If the Republican presidential candidate runs a good race in 2008, there's a strong possibility that we will see Republican gains in the House. If the nominee wins and shows significant coattails, a shift back to a Republican majority is a distinct possibility. The vulnerability of freshman Democrats in GOP-leaning seats is reflected in the fact that 12 of the Democrats who stray from the party line most consistently fall into this category. One of the major goals of the House Republican leadership is to keep its Members 'in line' on tough votes, so that these potential 2008 targets are forced to cast votes that come back to haunt them in their re-election bids. We'll see how well they do when the House votes on tax increases and immigration measures, in particular.