Michael Scherer reports here on a second meeting among some social conservative elites scheduled for this Saturday in Washington, D.C., just hours after Mayor Giuliani addresses the "Values Voters Summit." Scherer writes:
Conservative circles have been buzzing for weeks about the possibility of a third-party bid, which remains a heavily disputed idea even among religious conservatives. On Wednesday, longtime conservative leader Paul Weyrich, president of the Free Congress Foundation, published a column laying out three requirements for a successful third-party bid: major defections of elected officials from the Republican Party, the financial backing of an independently wealthy individual, and the support of a major news organization, like the Fox News Channel or the Wall Street Journal. 'If the walkout of Republicans grassroots were dramatic enough and if it enticed major figures to join, which in turn caused millionaires to follow along and caused major media continually to provide favorable treatment, a third party could work,' Weyrich argued in the article.
By these criteria, it seems to me that it would be difficult for social conservatives who reject Giuliani to launch a third-party bid. After all, is it likely that Giuliani's nomination would result in "major defections of elected officials"? No. Would the Fox News Channel or the Wall Street Journal support a third-party challenger to Giuliani? Probably not. An "independently wealthy individual" may back political action committees that would attack hizzoner from the social right. But unless the "independently wealthy individual" ran for president himself, campaign finance law would restrain the amount of money he would be able to provide the third-party. One way social conservative elites potentially could stop Giuliani's nomination would be to rally behind a single pro-life candidate who is already running. They haven't done this, however. Which suggests one of two things. Either these social conservative elites aren't all that serious about mounting a third-party bid if Giuliani is the nominee. Or they are in serious danger of marginalizing themselves from the Republican party and those social conservatives whom they claim to lead.