National Review's John J. Miller profiles Marco Rubio in the
cover story of the latest issue:
Several factors may work to Rubio's advantage. The primary is closed, which means that only registered Republicans can participate. Turnout probably will be low, which increases the importance of conservative activists. Rubio also has started to attract national attention. Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina and former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee have enÂdorsed him. Interestingly, Jeb Bush has remained quiet, fueling speculation that he might back Rubio if the race is close next summer. His son, Jeb Bush Jr., is a confirmed Rubio supporter. That Rubio is of Cuban ancestry doesn't hurt, either. "Finding Latino stars in the Republican party is a big deal," says Mike Murphy, a GOP political consultant and Rubio donor. "I don't want to pigeonhole him -- I'd like him if he was Scandinavian -- but it's a plus."
The biggest challenge for Rubio will be money. In the second quarter of this year, Crist amassed $4.3 million. Rubio managed about one-twelfth of that amount: $340,000. This low figure has caused some to question his discipline. A shake-up of his campaign staff this summer raised doubts, too. Rubio clearly enjoys the performance aspect of politics. To win, however, he'll also need to devote hours and hours of each day to the drudgery of fundraising: making cold calls, asking strangers for money, and receiving far more rejections than checks. This is the only way he'll gain the resources to put ads on television, which is the only way to compete in a large state with as many media markets as Florida.
The good news is that Rubio doesn't have to match Crist dollar for dollar. But he does need to hit a certain mark -- enough to lift his name into the consciousness of most Florida Republicans. It can probably be done for about $5 million, give or take. Primaries are famously fluid, with lots of last-minute deciders. Candidates such as Rubio can close hard and fast in the final two or three weeks, but only if they spend a long time preparing to make the most of their opportunity.
Rubio hasn't been able to gain much ground against Crist in the polls since he declared his candidacy in May--he still trails the governor by more than 20 points--but the latest Rasmussen poll shows both Crist and Rubio beating the Democratic challenger by double-digits, which would seem to diminish the argument that Crist is much more electable than Rubio.
It's important to remember that normal voters may not pay attention to the race until the closing month of the campaign (August of next year) when Rubio will be able to hit the airwaves in full force--if he raises enough money. In 2004, Pat Toomey trailed Arlen Specter 37 percent to 52 percent on April 7, and on April 27 narrowly lost the primary 49 percent to 51 percent.
Crist has a sunnier personality than Arlen Specter and is more willing and better at tacking to the right in the primary, but Rubio is a more exciting candidate (than Crist or Toomey). If Crist's numbers continue to hover around 50 percent, Rubio has a very good shot to win if he can raise enough money to get his message out.