This Reid Wilson post at Real Clear Politics is worth reading. Wilson argues that there are parallels between Mitt Romney and Howard Dean, and that either John McCain or Rudy Giuliani will become the 2008 version of Dick Gephardt who takes Dean/Romney down with him in a flurry of negative campaigning, while the other may become the 2008 version of John Kerry and win his party's nomination. It may sound like a tortured historical analogy to you - and maybe it is! Regardless, here's Wilson:
The increasing bitterness of the Republican race, centered around three candidates' struggles to win New Hampshire, are only likely to get worse in the coming months. The turning point, from running a positive campaign to a comparative campaign, could be an ominous sign for either McCain or Giuliani. As they both train their fire on Romney, one will likely become this year's version of Dick Gephardt. The other could become this year's John Kerry, who stays above the fray, and out of harm's way, bound onward to a general election.
It is worth thinking about the possibilities. What is clear, though, is that probably we will have a much more definite sense of the field after New Hampshire, should New Hampshire take place after Iowa. The early states matter more, not less, than the others.