If Iraq recedes as an issue over the next year, voters' perceptions of "the economy" will likely become more important. Which means you should probably read this Martin Wolf column in the Financial Times on the increasing likelihood that the United States is already experiencing a "growth recession." The article is technical at times, but that shouldn't stop you from reading it. Here's Wolf's conclusion:
A plausible view of the future, then, is that the US will experience a lengthy period of sluggish growth in domestic private demand, partially offset by fiscal expansion and an improvement in net exports. It is via the latter effect, moreover, that monetary policy should have its principal impact, since households are unlikely to borrow much more while their houses decline in value. This is the great unwinding. So what does it mean for the rest of the world? It means that the rest of the world will adjust either by increasing demand, relative to potential supply, or by reducing its supply relative to demand. The former adjustment is clearly the more desirable.
Translation: "The rest of the world - and the emerging markets in particular - must now become the demand engines of the world economy." Or: The rest of the world needs to be ready to buy American. And no one knows whether or not that will happen.