Remember that "encouraging" news for Al Gore a few weeks ago? A Pew Research Center poll showed Gore gaining on George W. Bush in a head-to-head race: Bush's 54-39 percent September lead had shrunk to only a 51-44 percent advantage in the poll's October tally. The Pew press release even implied that "Gore's more assertive campaign" might be making a difference.
Not so. In a memo to clients last week, researchers Hans Kaiser and Bob Moore of Moore Information in Portland, Ore., revealed the particular devil in the Pew poll's details. "This supposed surge for Al Gore is attributable to one single factor: a significant increase in the percentage of Democrats in the October sample. In the September survey, the partisan make-up of the sample was even: 32% Democrat, 31% Republican and 32% Independent. But in the October survey, the partisan breakdown was 40% Democrat, 28% Republican and 28% Independent. This represents a major shift in overall party identification in the sample.
"Furthermore, Bush actually improved his standing among Republicans (+5%) and Independents (+9%) from September to October, while only falling off 3% with Democrats. So, there is only one mathematical way for Al Gore to have improved -- a dramatic increase in the number of Democrats in the sample."
As Kaiser and Moore note, this was "actually bad news for Al Gore. He is doing worse with Independents (i.e. swing voters) than he was in September, and he has not improved beyond the margin of error among Democrats."