Donald Trump had his best polling news of the summer when Quinnipiac released polls yesterday showing Trump tied or leading Hillary Clinton in three swing states. Trump and Clinton were tied in Ohio, while Trump led Clinton by two points in Pennsylvania and three points in Florida.

Today, Quinnipiac released Senate polls in those states: Republican Pat Toomey leads his Democratic challenger Katie McGinty by 10 points in Pennsylvania, Marco Rubio leads his likely Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy by 13 points in Florida, and Rob Portman leads his Democratic challenger Ted Strickland by 7 points.

So the Quinnipiac polls suggest one of two things: Either a huge Republican wave is possible in November, or the Quinnipiac polls are wildly overstating support for Republicans.