Call me a skeptic of the comments made by some U.S. government officials and pundits that North Korea badly miscalculated in firing its missiles. The U.N. Security Council isn't likely to do much beyond condemning the "provocation" and pleading with the North to return to the six-party talks. If anything, there will be a new push for the U.S. to directly engage the North. The Clintonites have already taken to the airways this morning calling for just that. Madeleine Albright blamed yesterday's events on a "failure of diplomacy," which is her way of blaming the Bush White House for abandoning her administration's North Korean policy. But the lesson the North most likely learned from the Clinton days was that blackmail works. The one nation in the region that seems serious about dealing with the North is Japan. Unlike some Clinton folks, the Japanese may not believe that the North is seeking a grand bargain with the international community in which the hermit kingdom gives up its nukes and nuclear-capable missiles in exchange for economic aid and security guarantees. Pyongyang may actually intend to put nuclear warheads on its missiles and may have concluded that the Security Council (thanks to Beijing, for now at least) is too dysfunctional to impose strong, lasting sanctions. Yes, the North Koreans have "provoked" the international community but if past is prologue I doubt they'll do much about it. Let's hope I'm wrong.