Jim Geraghty sums up Republican state senator Scott Brown's prospects in the January 19 special election to fill Ted Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts: " Anecdotes for Cheer, Data for Gloom." The anecdotes are indeed hopeful: Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democrat in the race, is hiding from the media, and there are lots of reports of a surge in Republican enthusiasm. And if Curt Schilling is for Brown, who can be against him? As far as the data go: this is (the People's Republic of) Massachusetts after all, where Democrats heavily outnumber Republicans and where Barack Obama trounced John McCain by 23 points in 2008. Absent other data--no public polls have been released yet--one must assume realistically that the GOP odds in Massachusetts are long. But a private poll, conducted only one day between Christmas and January 1 and reviewed by THE WEEKLY STANDARD, shows the odds aren't quite as long as they seem. Coakley led Brown 50% to 39%. Coakley's favorable/unfavorable rating was 61% to 32%; Brown's was 56% to 26%--virtually identical (+29, +30). So that's a potentially very competitive race. THE WEEKLY STANDARD has been told that an earlier poll, done in mid-December by another firm for another client, had similar results--but also found the race tightened significantly among those most likely to vote. We'll probably have a better idea of where the race stands after Scott Rasmussen releases a poll that he's conducting tonight on the Massachusetts race. Rasmussen's polling nailed the New Jersey governor's race in 2009, where Republican Chris Christie won, despite Obama's 16-point victory in 2008.