The November 2007 AEI Political Report begins with a comparative look at candidate standings in the Gallup poll a year before the election:
In November 1975, Ted Kennedy led all comers among the Democratic faithful in Gallup's polling, including the eventual nominee, Jimmy Carter, who barely registered in the poll at 3 percent. On only two occasions in the modern era did the eventual Democratic nominee place first in the polls among fellow Democrats a year before the election. Republican voters have coalesced around their nominee earlier than the Democrats have.
The two occasions when the eventual Democratic nominee placed first in the Gallup poll a year before the election? November 1983, when Walter Mondale led the field with 47 percent support nationally, and November 1999, when Al Gore held a 58 percent to 33 percent lead over Bill Bradley. Hillary Clinton's current lead over Barack Obama in the Gallup poll is 50 percent to 21 percent. Hillary: the Walter Mondale of our age. The Republican race is more interesting. Giuliani's first place position with 32 percent support nationally in the current Gallup poll is most similar to ... Ronald Reagan's first-place position with 35 percent support in November 1979. We know how that turned out. Of course, unlike Giuliani's foes, Ronald Reagan's liberal opponents didn't call him a "crazy," "deluded" "warmonger" ... Oh, wait. They did call him those things.