I think everyone can agree that the Obama administration has yet to score a major diplomatic victory. It's early yet, and the administration is only beginning to send out its many envoys and special representatives and special advisers and the like, but it is clear that the election of Obama alone has not fundamentally altered the dynamic of international relations. However, there have already been diplomatic failures. The foolish decision to engage in Durban II only to subsequently withdraw from the conference, the clumsy handling of the letter to Medvedev (though the New York Times bungled this story and the actual substance of the letter may not have been as bad as reported), the loss of a critical U.S. base in Kyrgyzstan -- all early setbacks for the administration. Now comes word that the Kyrgyz may be reconsidering:
The government of Kyrgyzstan is showing signs of waffling on its decision last month to close a U.S. air base that is a major supply hub for troops in Afghanistan. The mixed signals come as Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev is coming under heightened pressure from domestic allies over the decision to close the base. While Russia has promised a $2.15 billion aid package to his government, people close to Mr. Bakiyev wonder whether Kyrgyzstan will ever see much of the money. Mr. Bakiyev said in an interview with the BBC this week that "the doors are not closed" to talks with the U.S. about the base. He declined to discuss what kind of talks he was prepared for and said none were under way. Later, a presidential spokesman denied that Mr. Bakiyev's comments meant he was backing off on his decision to close the base. "The decision on the base is final," said the spokesman, Almaz Turdumamatov. By August, "every last American soldier will have left the territory of Kyrgyzstan," he said.
Diplomacy is about results, not process -- a point that often seems lost on many Democrats. If Obama can convince the Kyrgyz to reverse course, if he can bribe, cajole, or cow them into allowing U.S. troops to remain at that base, he will have done something right. It doesn't matter how Obama does it, only that it gets done. Update: Read more on this from the Washington Post.