Michael Tomasky: " Whether Obama can cut, even modestly, into Clinton's white working-class margin is, in my view, the single most important factor that will decide who wins this nomination. If he can, he has a strong shot at Ohio (March 4) and Pennsylvania (April 22). If he can't, Clinton will probably be able to hold him off." In his New York Times column today, Bill Kristol argues that Obama is up to the challenge:
Obama will have momentum. He will likely have more money than Clinton for advertising. His ballot performance among Hispanics and working-class whites has generally been improving as the primary season has gone on. He intends to push a more robust economic message that could help him further narrow the gap among lower-income voters. And an interesting regression analysis at the Daily Kos Web site (poblano.dailykos.com) of the determinants of the Democratic vote so far, applied to the demographics of the Ohio electorate, suggests that Obama has a better chance than is generally realized in Ohio. As for Texas, look for a couple of possible endorsements to help Obama there. If John Edwards campaigns for Obama in East Texas, and Bill Richardson defies the pleas of Bill Clinton and travels across the border from New Mexico to help out, Obama could prevail.
Can he? Obama has already proven himself a major player in American politics. It's looking like it may take more than a staff shakeup to stop him.