This Bob Novak column is worth your time. Up until only recently, Novak has been highly skeptical of Rudy Giuliani's frontrunner status. Not anymore:
Contrary to the conventional wisdom, Giuliani has stubbornly kept first place in national surveys of all Republican voters. His elevated status cannot be written off as merely superior name identification. He no longer seems uncomfortable as a Republican and clearly dominated the most recent presidential debate last week in Dearborn, Mich. The real possibility that Giuliani might actually be the Republican nominee led a group of religious conservatives, meeting in Salt Lake City Sept. 29 under the leadership of James C. Dobson of Focus on the Family, to consider a third-party alternative.
Novak continues:
Giuliani's opponents tend to blame his otherwise inexplicable support from churchgoers on the veils of ignorance that in time, they say, will be lifted from the eyes of voters. That implies voters are just too stupid to know the truth about him. One Roman Catholic layman who supports another candidate told me he thought Giuliani's strong Catholic backing was mainly the product of his Italian surname. Other skeptics predict that his churchgoing support will fade before a nominee is selected. But what if the support holds? Veteran conservative leader Gary Bauer of the Campaign for Working Families does not want to follow James Dobson's rejectionist course, which could pave Hillary Clinton's path to the Oval Office. "If he [Giuliani] is nominated," Bauer told me, "the leaders of the values voters movement need to sit down and do everything possible to avoid a split that would guarantee a disaster for social, economic and foreign policy conservatism. It would require some serious discussions."
The frontrunners in both parties have had a good run lately. Because politics is constantly changing, they are both due for some surprises - not all positive - in the weeks ahead. What's important about Novak's column is that it is a sign of the right's waking up to the real possibility of Giuliani's ascent. That ascent, should it persist, will have many unpredictable consequences. The right may split. Or social conservative leaders may discover they do not have the influence over voters that they claim to possess.