If I had to bet today," writes William Kristol, "I'd put my money on Colin Powell." ("President Powell?" Sept. 18.)
It's a fool's bet, Bill. Colin Powell will never be elected President -- at least not in 1996. If he chooses to run as a Republican, he will not win the nomination. If he chooses to run as an independent, he will virtually guarantee the Republican nominee's election in November.
While to a certain degree it is true that Republican primary voters are not as ideological as the national media portrays them, it is equally true that new Republican activists cannot be induced to vote for a candidate solely on the basis of his media image. Conservative voters, remember, do vote on the basis of issues; it is the "moderate" voter who, once convinced that a candidate doesn't believe anything too clearly or firmly, is willing to vote on the basis of something so amorphous. Conservative primary voters cannot be so easily deceived into voting for somebody who, like Michael Dukakis in 1988, argues that all that is at stake is competence, not ideology.
If Powell runs as an independent, it is virtually impossible that he will gather 270 votes in the Electoral College. Splitting the electoral vote three ways will throw the election into the House, where each state will be allocated one vote. Today, the GOP has a majority in 27 delegations.
Nothing is gained, neither by the Republic nor THE WEEKLY STANDARD, by fueling the political immaturity that now yearns, as of old, for rescue by the General on the white horse. Conservatives gain nothing by escapism.
NATHANIEL T. TRELEASE