As the Wisconsin recall election heats up, Republicans have been touting the fact that unemployment has declined from 7.7 percent to 6.8 percent since Governor Scott Walker took office. Wisconsin Democrats have countered by pointing to a a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing that the state lost 29,000 non-farm jobs during the past year--making Wisconsin dead last in that category nationwide.
At first glance, the debate over Wisconsin's jobs numbers appeared to be the mirror image of the national debate. Whenever a new report is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Obama and his allies tout the drop in the unemployment rate, but Republicans counter that the unemployment rate went down largely because discouraged workers are dropping out of the labor force.
But Wisconsin's unemployment rate isn't going down because of discouraged workers. Labor force participation has actually increased. According to the Wisconsin Department of Revenue's chief economist.
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one set of well-publicized numbers (from the Current Employment Survey of businesses) put Wisconsin at the very bottom of 50 states in job creation during Walker's first year. These figures were based on a sample of 3.5% of the state's employers and are subject to significant revisions. The other numbers, from the Quarterly Census, tell a more positive story, one the Walker administration is in a hurry to get out. They are based on a jobs count, not a survey. Each state gathers the quarterly census data from virtually all employers in both the public and private sectors, which are mandated to share staff and wage data as part of their tax and unemployment insurance reports. That makes it a more reliable source of employment data, state officials and many economists say. [...] "The quarterly (census) data is much more reliable," said Brian Jacobsen, an economist in Menomonee Falls with Wells Fargo Funds Management. "If that one's showing job gains, that's going to be tough to argue with. It's a census as opposed to just a sample. That's a reason why that survey is used for benchmarking purposes."
"sample of 3.5% of the state's employers and are subject to significant revisions"
http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/walker-speeds-release-of-positive-jobs-data-775edrh-151655365.html