People's Daily reports:
China is expected to become the world's second largest power in terms of objective national strength by 2030, a top think tank reported on Tuesday. In its report "China's Modernization 2008" that was released on Monday, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said the country, currently number three globally in objective national strength, is expected to surpass Japan in 2030.
And earlier this week from the Strategy Page:
Expensive, and long term, efforts are being made to produce high tech items like jet engines, missiles and military electronics. At the current rate of progress, Chinese military technology will match that of the United States in a decade or so.
I think that second estimate is more than a little hysterical. The Chinese are putting Russian engines into fourth generation fighters while the United States operates the world's only fifth generation fighter, the F-22, and Boeing is even talking of a sixth generation fighter (though there's already some healthy skepticism at the Danger Room). Still, it sounds like the Chinese are doing a little sandbagging in the CASS study--it closes with this:
In its report, CASS also proposed the new concept of "Peace Dove Strategy" to stress its peaceful development policy.
The "Peace Dove, We Would Never Start a War Strategy"--who could worry?