Bill Kristol has an op-ed in today's New York Post on the state of the presidential race. Here's his take on the Republican race:
Giuliani's been stalled in the national polls for a while now. He's still ahead, though by a diminishing margin. But he's running a distant third in Iowa and third in New Hampshire. He hasn't been gaining in either. No one has won the nomination in modern times without at least a second-place finish in at least one of those first two states. And, in early November, as voters began to focus on the race, Bernie Kerik, Giuliani's driver who eventually became his police commissioner and then his recommendation to President Bush for Homeland Security chief, was indicted on corruption charges. Then, last week, the story broke - or was revived - about the NYPD providing security and transportation for Mayor Giuliani's then-mistress, Judith Nathan. This kind of 'Sex and the City' scandal probably won't play well among GOP primary voters. Giuliani is still formidable. But it isn't clear he should any longer be considered the GOP favorite.
Kristol writes that the Democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, is in similar trouble. And then he presents this scenario:
Now, Clinton and/or Giuliani may well still prevail. But they may not. What if we end up with a Barack Obama-Mike Huckabee race - a small-town Arkansas conservative running against an inexperienced Illinois liberal? Many New Yorkers will be mortified. But only briefly. For that's the one circumstance that might convince Mayor Bloomberg to run. He may decide that he has a plausible chance to win against those two. It would be ironic if the failure of the two New York front-runners propelled a third New Yorker into the race - one who could break the 150-year-old two-party lock on the presidency. That outcome is awfully unlikely - but not impossible. Now that would be a New York-sized accomplishment.
You can read the whole thing here.