In July, I noted the following:
If the world flinches and the Iranian regime is allowed to move forward with its nuclear weapons plans, does anyone honestly believe the Israelis won't act at some point to stop or degrade Tehran's ability to produce a bomb - even if it takes weeks to do it? I doubt they want to go down this road and would prefer a Security Council-imposed solution. But I also doubt the Israeli government will be convinced by op-ed writers making the case for a policy of containment of a nuclear-armed Iran. After experiencing the result of the Iranian-supplied Hezbollah arms buildup and dodging a bullet with the capture of the ship the Karine A (in 2002 the Iranians sought to consolidate another beachhead against Israel by smuggling 50 tons of weapons, including Katyusha rockets, into Gaza), it's unlikely they'll sit idly by as Iran goes nuclear while most of the world shrugs its shoulders. All of this is why a failure of the UN Security Council to act forcefully in the face of Tehran's continued defiance will likely set the stage for a far larger conflict down the road. Unfortunately, the Iranian regime is banking on the continued protection of Russia and China from UN-imposed sanctions - sanctions that would likely wreck havoc with Iran's economy and put pressure on the government to forgo its nuclear weapons plans.
Yesterday, Jennifer Griffin of Fox News reported:
GRIFFIN: Israeli leaders have long painted Iran and its nuclear program as the world's problem. No longer. Ehud Olmert, on his first visit to Moscow since becoming prime minister, sounded defiant. "The Iranians need to be afraid that something will happen to them," he said, "if they continue pursuing their nuclear program." EHUD OLMERT, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: We have no choice but to prepare for a response. We must prevent this. GRIFFIN: But the Israeli leader's request for solidarity fell on deaf ears. Russian President Vladimir Putin offered no public assurances that Russia would block Iran's nuclear ambitions. Olmert went one step further in off-camera remarks, issuing this veiled threat: "We don't have the privilege to allow a situation where Iran will possess a non-conventional capability." Russia has defied Israel and American requests to halt the building of an $800 million nuclear power plant in the Iranian city of Busher, Iran's first atomic plant. Just last month, Russia caved to Iranian pressure, agreeing to ship fuel for the nuclear reactor by March. The U.S. Israel and others worried that fuel could be diverted to make nuclear bombs. The Israeli prime minister did not just focus on non-conventional weapons. He pressed for an arms embargo against Iran and Syria in the wake of the Lebanon War so that Russian-made weapons don't end up in the hands of Hezbollah. Russia rejected the request. It recently signed a contract to supply the Iranian military with the Tour 1M (ph) anti-aircraft missile system. It's not clear whether Israel could carry out the kind of devastating blow to Iran's nuclear program that it did back in 1981, secretly bombing Saddam Hussein's only nuclear power plant at Osirak. Iran's program is spread out, and, for the most part, underground. Russia is likely to continue resisting international attempts to impose sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. Putin would only go so far as to say that Russia would back moderate and measured steps against Iran. That's not what Israel has in mind.