Jeffrey Anderson lays out the three biggest political vulnerabilities of the Baucus bill:
- Seniors have nothing to gain and everything to lose. The Baucus bill pays for itself largely by shifting hundreds of billions of dollars out of Medicare. The last thing seniors want is to have their representatives steal from Medicare to pay for Baucuscare. Seniors were surprisingly loud at the August town-hall meetings, and that was before anyone took such clear aim at them and their coverage. The Baucus bill would gut Medicare Advantage and would cut a total of $404 billion from Medicare and related federal health programs in its first ten years alone. And if it didn't actually follow through on these cuts, then it would be a colossal deficit bill, and the New York Times's green light would turn to red. 2. It would raise Americans' taxes dramatically. The tax numbers are not yet getting out there widely, but the bill would raise taxes and fines by $507 billion in its first ten years alone. Crossing the $500 billion barrier is a lot like crossing the $5 barrier for a box of cereal. People are generally reluctant to go there. The Democrats have done so, but the American people may not bite. 3. It would raise Americans' insurance premiums dramatically. The bill would require people to buy government-approved insurance and would fine them if they don't. That's not a terribly politically appealing message in a free country, particularly among younger voters - who would also be required to subsidize the premiums of older Americans under the bill (as insurers would not be allowed to vary the rates between policies sold to those of different ages as much as the true economic costs of those policies have generally caused them to do).
The HayGroup reports that under the Senate Finance Committe Bill "average premium increases in currently 'underwritten' markets ranging from 40% to 60%."