How Obama Could Aid the Iranian People

That was a topic discussed on Fox News Sunday today:

WALLACE: I do want to go back to Iran, though, before we get to U.S. diplomacy, because I think it's so instructive and so sad -- not surprising, but sad. Cell phone service cut off inside Iran. A lot of Web sites cut off. I mean, this is a totalitarian regime exercising its control. KRISTOL: I'm not so sure they're going to -- it's going to work. I mean, these are the biggest street demonstrations in Tehran in 10 years. People are being a little too fatalistic and deterministic in saying, "Oh, ultimately the reformists always lose." Ten years ago, the regime was in real trouble with the student demonstrations in Iran. We did nothing to support them or help them. The Europeans did nothing. They had a pseudo-reformist in power, Khatami, which sort of deflected the anger. Here we have the opposite, and as opposed to -- I think Mousavi -- it looks like he's calling for a general strike and mass demonstrations on Tuesday. That will be the moment when we see who can really turn people on the streets. Are the Tehran police willing to fire on their fellow Iranian citizens and the like? If this gets sustained, I think it's a big deal. We now have unambiguously a jihadist security service regime. It's not -- and the theocrats, as Brit called them, are somewhat split, actually. You know, some of them might have preferred Mousavi, a kinder face. They all want the nuclear program. But now I think it's unambiguously -- you know, it's sort of like the move from a -- you know, a moderate, complicated -- not moderate, but a complicated, illiberal and nuclear-pursuing regime to an unambiguously illiberal regime in which the war party is dominant. That's the key. I mean, does anyone seriously think that the Ahmadinejad Revolutionary Guard forces wouldn't do anything they could do once they had nuclear weapons? Does anyone think that we can sort of contain them and trust them? So it has huge implications, I think, for our policy and for Israel's policy over the next several months.

WILLIAMS: Well, I think you -- as you can hear from Bill, I think what's happened now is that the hardliners in the United States, in Israel, in the -- throughout the Middle East are sort of emboldened by the result. They're saying, "You know what? President Obama, you were wrong to ever reach out to the Iranians." Clearly, this is a totalitarian hardline state. I am actually... WALLACE: When he said hardliners -- I thought you were talking about Ahmadinejad. WILLIAMS: Yes. WALLACE: You're talking about Bill Kristol. WILLIAMS: Well, no, I'm talking about the Iranians. But I think that, you know, when you look at what the possibility is here now, it seems to me options then become limited, because how can you negotiate with someone -- how can you offer them any incentives when, in fact, there's a question of their legitimacy? Is this a real government or not? Is it simply some kind of, you know, religious-driven society, totalitarian -- however you want to describe it -- in which they are not... WALLACE: So you think all of President Obama's efforts or hopes to reach out to Iran on some level -- that that's dead? WILLIAMS: Well, it looks like it. I mean, the only thing is that there's the possibility that you get Ayatollah Khamenei and others in search of some kind of domestic appeasement, saying to people, "You know what? Oh, no, we're going to negotiate with the international community. We're going to take steps to try to amp down the tensions here." But that's the only hope. I don't see that there's much hope now in terms of these negotiations going forward because President Obama would look weaker. It would look as if he was giving in to this man who's not even legitimately elected. KRISTOL: Juan's giving up on reaching out by President Obama. At the moment you should be -- this is the moment for President Obama to step up. He does have some credibility, presumably, with people in Iran. He should support the democrats. HUME: Right. KRISTOL: He should support the demonstrators. He should say that stealing elections is unacceptable, killing demonstrators in the streets of Tehran is unacceptable. He could work with the Europeans to say, "Let's bring in international observers to review whether this was a fair election. If it wasn't, let's think about having another election." WALLACE: But you're saying turn up the heat, not reach out to the ruling regime. KRISTOL: Reach out to -- right, reach out to the Iranian people. I mean, this is the -- I really am shocked that Obama has said nothing so far, and we'll see what he says today. But I mean, doesn't America -- when these things happen, there's -- when there are democratic protests and there's a chance for success, their success depends on outside forces helping them. That was true in Lebanon. WILLIAMS: But, Bill, what... KRISTOL: It was true in Ukraine. It was true in the old Central and Eastern Europe. WILLIAMS: How is it -- how is it going to help? How are they going to help? Look, even when Mousavi wanted to have a press conference, security people canceled the press conference. You have reporters being beaten. So what do you say? The U.S. gets involved. We can offer some kind of support. We can try to open communications channels. We can send money. But do you want to send troops in there? KRISTOL: No, I do want to... LIASSON: No, no. KRISTOL: ... open communication channels. HUME: No. KRISTOL: I do want to send money. And I want to tell the Iranians who are on the fence and who do want trade with Europe and do want warmer relations with the U.S., "Look, you've got now to back off or else you don't get anything you want." The worst thing the U.S. can say is, "We don't care what you do in there. We desperately want to engage the regime no matter how thuggish it is." LIASSON: It's worth a try. The worst thing that happens is you get a very clarifying moment if it fails. And that in and of itself might lead to some kind of a resolution of this. HUME: But does anybody sense that the inclination of this administration is to do what Bill suggests? I think not. This president couldn't have been blind to what Ahmadinejad is and what he represents, and he was prepared to reach out to him, as has been pointed out here. I think he will continue to -- that's what they said yesterday in the face of all of this. I mean, I think it's going to be -- you know, it's going to look terrible to do it now, given the questions about the legitimacy of this election. This will all play out in the next couple of days. WILLIAMS: That's my point. HUME: But I can remember so vividly not so very long ago, when the United States was friendly to dictators around the world who were helpful in the fight against Communism, and the American left just hated it. They thought it was outrageous, that we should be supporting the liberal opposition and so on. Where are they now on this? LIASSON: President Obama isn't talking about making an alliance with Ahmadinejad. He was talking about direct negotiations with an enemy of ours, not an ally. Now, if he -- he's going to have to do some really careful balancing here in how he reaches out to the democratic forces, such as he decides they are, while at the same time, I guess, not backing down from his comments to negotiate. HUME: But at this particularly point, at this moment, President Obama's outreach to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is worth a lot. It is a symbol and token of recognition as the legitimate ruler of that country -- or leader of that country, I should say -- and to withhold it would be meaningful as well, as Bill suggests. But I see no sign yet that Mr. Obama's prepared to do that. KRISTOL: Yeah. Reagan negotiated with Soviet leadership at the same time as he reached out to this -- to distance (ph). Secretary Clinton can place a phone call to Mousavi to make sure that he's OK and is not under house arrest. There are a million things the U.S. could do symbolically to try to strengthen the forces of those in Tehran who want to prevent the Revolutionary Guard and Ahmadinejad from totally taking over the country. WILLIAMS: I'm all for it. I just think there's limits to what you can do. And don't forget that you have the Israelis -- Benjamin Netanyahu is going to give a speech about settlements and freezing things today. And he wants to make the case that Iran is the problem in the Middle East, not what's going on with the Palestinians. WALLACE: All right. WILLIAMS: This strengthens his hand in those talks with President Obama. WALLACE: All right, gentlemen, we have to take a break here