The national limit on late-term abortion passed by the House of Representatives in June in response to the Gosnell murders is a sure loser for pro-life Republicans, according to the conventional wisdom in the press. But there are two compelling reasons why the conventional wisdom may be wrong: nationwide polls and the 2014 map of Senate races.
According to the polls, Americans strongly support a ban on late-term abortions. A Huffington Post/YouGov poll found that by a 2-to-1 margin (59 percent to 30 percent) Americans support banning abortions after the twentieth week of gestation. "One of the clearest messages from Gallup trends is that Americans oppose late-term abortion," according to a report by the polling firm in May. A National Journal poll found a majority of women and independents support the House bill, and the measure garnered "plurality support across all income levels and [it] even fared well in the suburbs."
The 2014 Senate elections won't be fought nationwide, of course, and that means the late-term abortion issue is potentially even more toxic for Democrats. The ten most competitive Senate races are almost all in red states where the late-term abortion ban may be more popular than the country in general. Of these ten seats, two are held by Republicans (Kentucky and Georgia), four are held by retiring Democrats (West Virginia, South Dakota, Iowa, and Montana), and four are held by Democrats seeking reelection (Louisiana, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina).
While walking between meetings and votes this past week, the four red state Democratic senators seeking reelection in 2014 commented on the House's late-term abortion bill for the first time to THE WEEKLY STANDARD. Both Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Mark Begich of Alaska said they would vote against the House bill if it comes to the floor in the Senate.
"I always wait to see legislation, to see exactly what it says, but I would oppose that," Hagan told me. "Yes," Begich replied when asked if he'd vote against the House bill if it came up in the Senate. "I'm pro-choice."
But Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, two senators who voted for the 2003 partial-birth abortion ban, said they didn't know how they would vote.
"I'll have to look at it. I haven't focused on it," Pryor told me.
"I'm going to look at it. I've voted to end late-term abortions, " Landrieu said, referring to her vote for the partial-birth abortion ban.
"I do support you know the current constitutional outline which provides for decisions to be made which are very private in, you know, the early stages of pregnancy," Landrieu continued. "So I'm going to have to look at that bill and make a decision. I've opposed late-term abortion but 20 weeks is mid-term."
"I've taken a lot of tough votes. That's what I'm here for," Landrieu said. She repeated again that she's opposed late-term aboriton in the past, but "this isn't late-term this is mid-term."
But should Landrieu choose to vote against the bill, she'll have a very hard time explaining that vote to the voters of Louisiana. The point at which the bill would ban most abortions (except in the case of rape, incest, or when a physical health condition puts the life of the mother at risk),
Talking about babies in a neonatal intensive care unit... Northwestern quote. ...
Pelosi, Richards,
What they are really arguing for is fetal euthanasia. And if they support euthanizing babies in the 5th month of pregnancy, why not the 8th or 9th?
The big question is whether it's changed the issue like the partial-birth abortion debate. Dems move to the left: PBA
Other polling: Gallup, minorities.
Question of whether there's a vote
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/07/14/reid-open-to-vote-on-20-week-abortion-ban/?wprss=rss_politics&clsrd
- gallup poll 1996 to 2012… politics are fundamentally different
- much like taxpayer-funding of abortion under obamacare, 2010: even scott brown attacked in deep blue massachusetts
- depends in part on whether make an issue of it: GOP donor class not fans, and
Democratic Senate leaders
Pryor and Landrieu a difficult decision:
Possible justification
vote for a bill that has strong popular support nationwide (and therefore likely even stronger support in their Republican-leaning states). According to national polls, a limit on late-term abortion is very popular. And if such a limit is popular nationwide, it may even be stronger and support would be even stronger in the red states where almost all of the top 2014 Senate races will be fought.
Four Democrats...
2014 map:
If that's how the issue polls nationwide, then
Even still it found a majority of women supported the measure as did independents and suburbanites--all the constituencies
The Map: READ O'BRIEN EMAIL
The press sees it through the prism of the last election. But before 2012, there was 2010. Late-term abortion is much more like partial-birth aboriton.
Conventional wisdom Conventional wisdom holds that a new bill banning most abortions during the final four months of pregnancy can only hurt pro-life Republicans. But the conventional wisdom is wrong for two reasons. First, the polls point in a very different direction. A National Journal poll that found a smaller plurality
A Huffington Post/YouGov poll found that Americans favor banning abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy by a 29-point margin (59 percent to 30 percent).
Conventional wisdom in the press holds that a
YouGov HuffPo
National Journal:
64% to 27% Gallup poll second trimester