This Jay Cost post analyzing Rudy Giuliani's primary strategy is worth your time. Most political professionals say Giuliani is pursuing a "February 5 strategy" in which he plans to survive the early primary states, win Florida on January 29, 2007, then go on to victory in the February 5 megaprimary. The danger in such a strategy, these professionals continue, is that the non-Giuliani winner(s) of the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary will receive free media and considerable momentum, probably enough to erase the former mayor's frontrunner status and deny him victory in Florida and beyond. Cost raises an intriguing objection, however. What if Giuliani isn't actually banking on a "February 5 strategy"? What if he understands he must win at least one of the first three contests - Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan - and probably South Carolina, if he has any chance of winning Florida? Cost has the numbers:
Since the beginning of the year, Giuliani has visited New Hampshire more than any other state. Iowa comes second. Florida, California, and South Carolina round out the top five. Now - maybe Giuliani has altered his campaign strategy. Indeed, we might expect any candidate to do this as his position in various states shifts, and he must deal with the problem of resource constraints. To check this, I examined his campaign trips since October 1, 2007 through yesterday. I excluded the debates. ... Giuliani has made eight campaign appearances in New Hampshire, four in Florida, four in South Carolina, three in Iowa. He has made six appearances in states that will come on Super Tuesday. Not only has Giuliani spent the most time in New Hampshire - he camped out there for two complete working days. October 3rd and October 14th were dedicated exclusively to New Hampshire.
Reading Cost's analysis, one has the sense that Giuliani understands New Hampshire may well be a make-or-break contest for him.