" Georgia faces a stark choice between two mutually exclusive futures." That's how the Center for American Progress kicked off a 70+ page report on the divided former Soviet republic. That sophomoric dichtomy is fair enough way to launch the study - an inaccurate assertion is the opening salvo in a report overflowing with inaccuracies.
CAP, a progressive beltway Think Tank, isn't exactly known for their foreign policy prowess. The Obama Administration indirectly lambasted CAP wonk Lawrence Korb's proposed cuts to the defense budget as "math not strategy," and their work on the war on terrorism and Afghanistan has largely been overlooked in favor of the Center for a New American Security's products.
Their reports are rarely worth debating. But, given the deeply erroneous nature of CAP's Georgia screed, they are worth correcting.
First, consider that CAP argues that the United States, not Russia, worsened the conflict with a series of bad policy moves, while referencing the Russian occupation as "stabilizing." The idea of a growing Russian military presence as stabilizing is silly in its own right, but consider the role of the US government since their Rose Revolution. The United States has steadily worked to promote media freedom, good governance, and an open electoral system. The Georgians have whole heartedly supported these efforts. Further, see Human Rights Watch's recent report, which drew a stark contrast between benefical US and EU aid and Russia's military obstructionism.
Second, the report seems to buy into the Russian notion that Moscow is not party to conflict and is absolved from obligations to work towards a crisis solution. This inertia, of course, is precisely what Moscow wants -- a Georgia that is divided, weak, and occupied. That Russia's continued occupation, in violation of the 2008 ceasefire, is preventing honest dialogue isn't controversial. It is fact. Just as it is a fact that Russia’s alleged “peacekeeping” role in South Ossetia and Abkhazia was a farce – they were, as the invasion proved, a party to the conflict for years prior to 2008, not a neutral force. CAP ignores this, and places the conflict resolution onus squarely on American shoulders.
They are other aspects of the report that blantantly favor the Russian viewpoint. Moscow's perspective is amplified with little or no mention of their role in the conflict. It ignores praise of Georgian restraint and their construct approach to resolution by Secretary Clinton. It abstains from mentioning devious Russian strategies to fuel ethnic tensions in the Caucauses, nor does it mention Moscow's aggressive military build up in the occupied territories since the South Ossetia War. CAP decries a “Berlin” situation for Georgia just as, I am sure, they would have seen the 1948 Airlift or calling for the Wall to be torn down as needlessly provocative. Their report does not mention that Moscow displaced 10% of Georgia's population during the war, removing ethnic Georgians from the occupied territorities and creating a massive humanitarian crisis. And, perhaps worst of all, the report concurs with the Russian position that Moscow should not have to negotiate over the status of the terrorities, despite their continued presence in violation of an international ceasefire agreement.
Georgia wants to join the community of free and prosperous democracies. It has transformed itself from a failed state to a burdgeoning, open republic in a few short years. Russia views open, democratic socieites as a threat. They have demonstrated that they will mitigate that threat with force and occupation. In the Center for American Progress' rephrensible estimation, this obstruction of freedom and democracy is legitimate.