Representative Rick Lazio lacks the stature of New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, but he may have a slightly better chance of beating Hillary Rodham Clinton in the New York Senate race. No, really.
It's true that over the next month or two, Lazio's basic task will be preventing the Hillary crowd from defining him as a reincarnation of Newt Gingrich, never popular in New York. And it's true that won't be easy: Lazio voted for the Contract With America and for Newt as speaker.
But Lazio has advantages Giuliani didn't. He's neither a staunch conservative nor pro-life, but his opposition to partial birth abortion means he'll get both the Republican and Conservative party nominations. Giuliani famously feuded with Mike Long, the Conservative chairman, refused to retract his endorsement of President Clinton's partial-birth-ban veto, and consequently never had a prayer of securing the Conservative ballot line. Since 1974, no Republican has won statewide in New York without it.
What's more, odd but true, Lazio may actually benefit from being more obscure than Rudy. The campaign is now certain to be primarily about Hillary. And the more folks focus on the first lady, the less they like her. A few weeks ago, pollster John Zogby measured Hillary against six potential Republican candidates. Only 37 percent voted for Hillary in all six matchups, while 44 percent voted against her every time. In other words, those determined to vote against her in all circumstances out-number her core supporters. And even when she's pitted against candidates most of the public has never heard of, Hillary doesn't get more than 50 percent.
So Lazio may be good news for conservatives who fear the ultimate nightmare: Hillary wins, Bush wins but the economy collapses in a recession, and Hillary is elected president in 2004 on the promise of bringing back the golden years she and her husband bestowed on America in the 1990s.