Ad guru Evan Tracey describes the state of the race with less than a month to go:
The reality of this race is that Mr. Obama is in control. His nationwide buys have been climbing a systematic 20% a week since the beginning of September, while Mr. McCain's have flatlined. The Arizona senator's strategy was to devote the lion's share of his early ad resources to the established battleground states and some to Obama-leaning states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. His hope was to translate those buys into early leads that would have given his campaign a fighting chance against the looming Obama ad onslaught. Unfortunately for Mr. McCain, Mr. Obama successfully expanded the battleground into red states. The McCain campaign and the RNC are now spending ad dollars in three states -- Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana -- and they expected to win with some ease. While the McCain campaign is playing defense with valuable resources, the Obama camp is spending more and more money on ads in some of the key media markets in states such as Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Mr. Obama has spent a staggering $97 million since June while Mr. McCain, with the RNC, has spent a respectable $76 million. The Obama campaign upped its daily spending to more than $2.8 million, almost double what the McCain team spends daily now. It appears that Mr. McCain is trying to conserve his resources now so that his buys can remain competitive in the last two weeks of this race.
GOP strategist Mike Murphy says McCain needs a message:
For the last nine weeks the McCain campaign has tried win by raising Obama's negatives. Ads have attacked, McCain and Palin have attacked. This has failed. Over the top negative attacks and a campaign message that too often seems to be little more than sarcasm and suppressed anger has damaged McCain's priceless and hard earned "brand" as a different kind of Republican. McCain's best option now is to ditch the chainsaw and offer a scared and angry country what it badly wants; hope and leadership.
Meanwhile, McCain has abandoned Michigan as Obama campaigns in North Carolina, Tennessee, and Indiana this week. Those aren't battleground states. Those are Republican strongholds. It's either an extraordinary act of hubris--or another piece of evidence that Obama is on the march.